Usually, when we get a warm day in January, the wind howls out of the south. 
Today, not a wisp of wind fluttered the flags -- and the calm covered a huge 
area.  Further, because of the extensive snow cover, a temperature inversion 
formed, with 47 degree air at 3500 feet, and 33 degree air at the surface. 
When this happens, usually fog or clouds form -- but today was CAVU, with 
stunning visibility.
We flew from Iowa City to Prairie du Chein, WI, and saw nary a cloud, and 
felt nary a bump, despite all weather circumstances pointing to the 
development of such conditions.
Just goes to show you that weather is still as much a mystery than a 
science.  But after such an unusually harsh winter, we'll gladly take the 
occasional pleasant surprise...
-- 
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination" 
> After weeks of bitter cold, today was one of those rare January flying
> days in the upper Midwest that literally convinced everyone to go
> flying.  I haven't seen (and heard) this much GA traffic since last
> summer. 
> 
> Usually, when we get a warm day in January, the wind howls out of the
> south. Today, not a wisp of wind fluttered the flags -- and the calm
> covered a huge area.  Further, because of the extensive snow cover, a
> temperature inversion formed, with 47 degree air at 3500 feet, and 33
> degree air at the surface. When this happens, usually fog or clouds
> form -- but today was CAVU, with stunning visibility.
> 
> We flew from Iowa City to Prairie du Chein, WI, and saw nary a cloud,
> and felt nary a bump, despite all weather circumstances pointing to
> the development of such conditions.
> 
> Just goes to show you that weather is still as much a mystery than a 
> science. 
Only to science deniers..
Bertie
No - not really; a stable atmosphere where there's insufficient
condensation nuclei or insufficient relative humidity, fog won't form
and the visibility can be quite good. You can also get poor visibility
with unstable air, happened quite often when I lived in Houston.
The general case (unstable air, rough, good visibility; stable air,
smooth, terrible visibility) is just the general case. There are
conditions that can result in something other than the general case. No
particular mystery!
-- 
From the sunny Isle of Man.
Yes, the Reply-To email address is valid.
Cold Clear = Nice Solid Air Usually
> Usually, when we get a warm day in January, the wind howls out of the 
> south. Today, not a wisp of wind fluttered the flags -- and the calm 
> covered a huge area.  Further, because of the extensive snow cover, a 
> temperature inversion formed, with 47 degree air at 3500 feet, and 33 
> degree air at the surface. When this happens, usually fog or clouds form 
> -- but today was CAVU, with stunning visibility.
...
> Just goes to show you that weather is still as much a mystery than a 
> science.
Luckily, today's science is a bit more advanced.
Well, all we had to do was wait 15 hours.  Today we have a "Wind Advisory", 
it's overcast, and with poor visibility -- far more in keeping with the norm 
for a January warm spell...
Yesterday was a real gem -- best warm-weather (relatively speaking, of 
course) January flying day I've seen.
> Only to science deniers..
I am a firm believer in Darwin's Weather Evolution principal.
Unfortunately, it matters not if oyu believe or not if the assholes around 
you don't. 
Bertie
> Unfortunately, it matters not if oyu believe or not if the assholes around 
> you don't. 
It matters to me what I believe, just as it matters to you what you 
believe...
Oh, I wasn't suggesting anything else.
But in fact, I don't go in for belief so much anyway..
I regard it as almost a neccesary evil until such time as I actually *do* 
know it all. 
Bertie
A mans gotta believe in something.
I believe.........Ill have another beer.
>> It matters to me what I believe, just as it matters to you what you 
>> believe...
>
> Oh, I wasn't suggesting anything else.
I know you weren't. I was just pointing out the oxymoron of the typical 
scientific theory and those who believe in them.
> I regard it as almost a neccesary evil until such time as I actually *do* 
> know it all. 
You can't know it all. You can only believe you know it all.
;)
> I am a firm believer in Darwin's Weather Evolution principal.
Huh ? ? ?
That went "wooosh" right over my head, I'm afraid! <g>
-- 
Jim in NC 
Darwin didn't have a Weather Evolution principal.
Only Judah knows what the hell he's talking about, and he's being coy.
Maybe he's hoping someone will ask him.
Let's not.
-- 
Dan
"Don't make me nervous when I'm carryin' a baseball bat."
- Big Joe Turner 
>> Just goes to show you that weather is still as much a mystery than a
>> science. But after such an unusually harsh winter, we'll gladly take the
> Weather prediction may not be an exact science but it is quite an
> advanced sicence.
It is politically important to some people to deny that.
After all, if scientists can't exactly predict the weather, how can they 
predict the climate?
...and what science *is* exact?
-- 
Dan
"The future has actually been here for a while, it's just not readily 
available to everyone."
- some guy at MIT
> 
> "Morgans"  wrote:
> 
>>
>> "Judah" <ju...@nospam.net> wrote
>>
>>> I am a firm believer in Darwin's Weather Evolution principal.
>>
>> Huh ? ? ?
>>
>> That went "wooosh" right over my head, I'm afraid! <g>
> 
> Darwin didn't have a Weather Evolution principal.
> 
> Only Judah knows what the hell he's talking about, and he's being coy.
> 
> Maybe he's hoping someone will ask him.
> 
> Let's not.
> 
I know what he meant.
Pretty obvious , I thought.
Bertie
> 
> "Longworth"  wrote:
> 
> 
>>> Just goes to show you that weather is still as much a mystery than a
>>> science. But after such an unusually harsh winter, we'll gladly take
>>> the 
> 
>> Weather prediction may not be an exact science but it is quite an
>> advanced sicence.
> 
> It is politically important to some people to deny that.
> 
> After all, if scientists can't exactly predict the weather, how can
> they predict the climate?
Actually, weather prediction is very good nowadays. 
Very good.
We get working flight logs which are generated a few hours before our 
flights. They have forecast winds on them for each waypoint and each 
altitude. They're generally accuraes within a few knots and a few degrees. 
15 years ago, they were guessing about a lot of things, These days,, not so 
much... 
> 
> ...and what science *is* exact?
> 
None, but none claims to be. 
Isn't solid air a little rough on the airframe? :-)
Matt
>> After all, if scientists can't exactly predict the weather, how can
>> they predict the climate?
>
>
> Actually, weather prediction is very good nowadays.
>
> Very good.
Indeed.
But it is a common talking point of U. S. right wing global warming deniers 
that it isn't because it rained in  Peoria one day when it wasn't supposed to.
>> ...and what science *is* exact?
>>
>
> None, but none claims to be.
Just so.
> 
> "Bertie the Bunyip" wrote:
> 
>>> After all, if scientists can't exactly predict the weather, how can
>>> they predict the climate?
>>
>>
>> Actually, weather prediction is very good nowadays.
>>
>> Very good.
> 
> Indeed.
> 
> But it is a common talking point of U. S. right wing global warming
> deniers that it isn't because it rained in  Peoria one day when it
> wasn't supposed to. 
I know.
> 
>>> ...and what science *is* exact?
>>>
>>
>> None, but none claims to be.
> 
> Just so.
Well, some comfort can be taken in the fact that at least some progress 
seems to have been made and perhaps the momentum will continue. 
Bertie
> Dan,
>  It is my poor choice of words.  What I meant is that weather
> prediction is not 100% accurate.  Since it is a science and not math,
> perfect precision is neither expected nor required.   Anyway, I only
> watch the weather and not the mystery channel before flying ;-)
I knew what you meant, Hai.
See you at OSH this summer?
-- 
Dan
T-182T  at BFM 
Anywho, I know -- I HATE the name "Prairie du Chien".  No matter how I spell 
it, it looks wrong.  I've been there 500 times, and I STILL can't get it 
right...  Some sort of mental block, apparently...
But, hey, you misspelled "mispelled" and "sicence" (below) -- so we're even!
:-)
***********************************************************************************************
   Weather prediction may not be an exact science but it is quite an
advanced sicence.  NOAA report had predicted an above-average winter
temperatures
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/20071009_outlook.html
   Our electric bill for the last two months was only $100.  The bill
showed the total degrees in comparison for the same two-month period
last year and it was indeed significantly warmer.
***********************************************************************************************
Just the opposite here.  They predicted a warmer-than-average winter, and we 
have the coldest winter since we moved here in '97.   It's been bitter, with 
almost daily snowfall -- and our heating bills have skyrocketed.   (Of 
course, our natural gas rates were raised 23% this month, without fanfare.)
It's an Internet tradition: a comment on someone's spelling must itself
contain misspellings.
> Just the opposite here.  They predicted a warmer-than-average winter, and we 
> have the coldest winter since we moved here in '97.   It's been bitter, with 
> almost daily snowfall -- and our heating bills have skyrocketed.   (Of 
> course, our natural gas rates were raised 23% this month, without fanfare.)
Yeah.
Now, I need to go shovel some global warming out of my driveway...
-- 
Jay Maynard, K5ZC                   http://www.conmicro.com
http://jmaynard.livejournal.com      http://www.tronguy.net
http://www.hercules-390.org               (Yes, that's me!)
Buy Hercules stuff at http://www.cafepress.com/hercules-390
Hi Jim,
I've evaluated 3 responses:
1) Perhaps you need to increase your altitude next time. ;)
2) Wow! I didn't think anyone else actually read my drivel! :)
3) It was a poke at people who think that we as humans actually know 
everything (like how to predict the weather). Combine that with a knock on 
those who would support their opinions by expressing their dogma in the form 
of scientific and/or religious laws, and you come away with just the 
slightest taste of that cynical mesh of liquid wiring that I like to call my 
sense of humor.
My apologies to Dan and anyone else who was not interested in the bandwidth 
wasted by the oft-erratic sputterings of my acetylcoline.
What, in particular, is oxymoron about "scientific theory"?
Methinks you are confusing theory with conjecture. In science, theory
does not mean 'guess' or 'hunch'. It has a very specific meaning that is
not the same as what a TV detective means when he says 'I have a
theory'.
-- 
From the sunny Isle of Man.
Yes, the Reply-To email address is valid.
> I know you weren't. I was just pointing out the oxymoron of the typical
> scientific theory and those who believe in them.
You apparently do not understand the meaning of "oxymoron."
...or science...
or "theory."
What do you understand?
-- 
Dan
"Dragged forward by cold science, which doesn’t care what we think or believe 
or wish for, we are headed into some interesting times."
- John Derbyshire 
> 
> "Judah" <ju...@nospam.net> wrote:
> 
>> I know you weren't. I was just pointing out the oxymoron of the typical
>> scientific theory and those who believe in them.
> 
> You apparently do not understand the meaning of "oxymoron."
> 
> ...or science...
> 
> or "theory."
> 
Or believe.
Bertie
> On 2008-01-28, Judah <ju...@nospam.net> wrote:
>
> What, in particular, is oxymoron about "scientific theory"?
> 
> Methinks you are confusing theory with conjecture. In science, theory
> does not mean 'guess' or 'hunch'. It has a very specific meaning that is
> not the same as what a TV detective means when he says 'I have a
> theory'.
The oxymoron is not "scientific theory". The oxymoron is the BELIEF in 
scientific theory. 
The joke is that people like yourself will happily believe in a scientific 
theory based on something they read in one book, but refuse to believe in a 
religious theory based on something they read in another. 
The bigger joke is that people on either side of the argument tend to believe 
that science and religion are mutually exclusive, when in reality they just 
answer different questions to the same problem.
> 
> "Judah" <ju...@nospam.net> wrote:
> 
>> I know you weren't. I was just pointing out the oxymoron of the typical
>> scientific theory and those who believe in them.
> 
> You apparently do not understand the meaning of "oxymoron."
> 
> ...or science...
> 
> or "theory."
> 
> What do you understand?
I understand that some people are so blinded by their own dogma, and are so 
insecure in their position, that they would rather insult anyone who 
disagrees with them than communicate intelligently about it.
I also understand that my sentence above did not end with the word "theory".
> Dylan Smith <dy...@vexed3.alioth.net> wrote in 
> news:slrnfq9l1o...@vexed3.alioth.net:
> 
>> On 2008-01-28, Judah <ju...@nospam.net> wrote:
>>
>> What, in particular, is oxymoron about "scientific theory"?
>> 
>> Methinks you are confusing theory with conjecture. In science, theory
>> does not mean 'guess' or 'hunch'. It has a very specific meaning that
>> is not the same as what a TV detective means when he says 'I have a
>> theory'.
> 
> The oxymoron is not "scientific theory". The oxymoron is the BELIEF in
> scientific theory. 
It's not a belief.
> 
> The joke is that people like yourself will happily believe in a
> scientific theory based on something they read in one book, but refuse
> to believe in a religious theory based on something they read in
> another. 
That;s the difference. Sientific theory isn't a belief. It's a best 
guess based on the best obtainable info. Nobody "believes" a scientific 
theory, at least not in the same way that someone makes a leap of faith 
to believe in a religion. 
Scinece is an attempt to understand whereas religion is not. 
> 
> The bigger joke is that people on either side of the argument tend to
> believe that science and religion are mutually exclusive, when in
> reality they just answer different questions to the same problem.
Or so you believe.
Bertie
> I also understand that my sentence above did not end with the word "theory".
That is the only thing about your sentence that is understandable.
The rest of it makes no sense, except perhaps by using your private 
definitions of some of the words.
Let's trim it down and see if you can paraphrase in standard English terms:
What does "oxymoron of the typical scientific theory" mean?
That's like asking "What is 1 + "?
>>
>> What does "oxymoron of the typical scientific theory" mean?
>
> That's like asking "What is 1 + "?
So it's meaningless.
Thought so.
> 
> "Judah"  wrote:
> 
>>>
>>> What does "oxymoron of the typical scientific theory" mean?
>>
>> That's like asking "What is 1 + "?
> 
> So it's meaningless.
> 
> Thought so.
> 
Correct. If you don't complete the sentence, the result is your failure to 
comprehend.
"I was just pointing out the oxymoron of the typical scientific theory and 
those who believe in them."
In the interest of moving this along, I will guess at your  fuzzy parsing and 
peculiar definition of "oxymoron", and assume you are making a coy attempt to 
equate scientific conviction with religious faith.
Is that about it?
Go ahead and use a dictionary and thesaurus if you need to; it's not cheating.
Although English is not my native language, I did understand it without 
difficulties, and the sentence fits perfectly the definition of an 
oxymoron. The formulation was not very elegant, and it can even be 
debated whether believing in a scientific theory is an oxymoron, but 
that doesn't change the fact that the point was perfectly understandable.
Hmm, I see that oxymoron sounds pretty similar to moron.
Then perhaps you'd like to explain it.
> and the sentence fits perfectly the definition of an oxymoron.
No.  An oxymoron is one thing composed of two contrary things that refer to 
one another.  The sentence contains two things that do not modify or refer 
to each other.
Wikipedia: An oxymoron ... is a *figure of speech* that combines two 
normally contradictory terms. Oxymoron is a loanword from Greek oxy 
("sharp") and moros ("dull"). Thus the word oxymoron is itself an oxymoron.
Oxymorons are a proper subset of the expressions called contradictions in 
terms. What distinguishes oxymorons from other paradoxes and contradictions 
is that they are used intentionally, for rhetorical effect, and the 
contradiction is only apparent, as the combination of terms provides a novel 
expression of some concept, such as "cruel to be kind".
> Hmm, I see that oxymoron sounds pretty similar to moron.
Really?
Gosh!
It obviously stirred a memory.
Bertie
> Wikipedia: An oxymoron ...
Wikipedia, the definitive authoritative source. But thanks, I *do* know 
what an oxymoron is: e.g. "those who believe in scientific theory" is one.
What I don't know however is whether you really don't understand or are 
just playing some game. Either way, there's no point in trying to 
explain the abovementioned oxymoron.
Let me try to expand your understaindg of the term with an example:
Cool Swiss. 
Bertie 
Do you believe in gravity? That's a Scientific Theory. There are many 
here that seem to confusing the scientific meaning of the word with the 
common usage.
> Do you believe in gravity? That's a Scientific Theory. There are many 
> here that seem to confusing the scientific meaning of the word with the 
> common usage.
Sometimes it really would help to read the history of a debate and get 
the context prior to respond.
Sometimes. Not when the debate was written by Lewis Carrol, though.
Bertie
I have read this thread and to raise to the level where I would consider 
it a debate would take a crane.
What it is, is a few people putting forth the idea that it requires a 
leap of faith to believe a scientific theory that is equal to the leap 
of faith required to believe in a religion. I personally think that is 
an insult to both scientific theory and religion.
>> Wikipedia: An oxymoron ...
>
> Wikipedia, the definitive authoritative source. But thanks, I *do* know 
> what an oxymoron is: e.g. "those who believe in scientific theory" is one.
You are welcome to produce one you consider more authoritative.
>
> What I don't know however is whether you really don't understand or are 
> just playing some game.
I do understand.
The two components do not comprise an oxymoron.  They do, however indicate a 
pattern of misunderstanding on the part of the OP.
> Either way, there's no point in trying to explain the abovementioned 
> oxymoron.
Mmm-hmm.
-- 
Dan
"You have a total of 0 fans and 0 friends."
-Webshots 
It's an insult to the little letters that make up the words!
Bertie
Do you believe that there is a reason that two bodies attract one another? Or 
is it simply enough to believe that they do?
Well, it has been said that if you trip and forget to fall you will fly...
Therefore gravity must be a belief.
Bertie
Since you brought it up, I looked on dictionary.com :
con·vic·tion –noun 1. a fixed or firm belief.
   faith  -noun 1. Confident belief in the truth, value, or trustworthiness 
of a person, idea, or thing.
Perhaps you meant, "scientific faith and religious conviction."
>> In the interest of moving this along, I will guess at your  fuzzy
>> parsing and peculiar definition of "oxymoron", and assume you are making
>> a coy attempt to equate scientific conviction with religious faith.
>>
>> Is that about it?
>>
>> Go ahead and use a dictionary and thesaurus if you need to; it's not
>> cheating.
>
>
> Since you brought it up, I looked on dictionary.com :
>
>   con·vic·tion  –noun 1. a fixed or firm belief.
>
>   faith  -noun 1. Confident belief in the truth, value, or trustworthiness
> of a person, idea, or thing.
>
>
> Perhaps you meant, "scientific faith and religious conviction."
No.  I am attempting to entice you into making a definitive statement 
explaining what your point is.
Up to now, you've provided word salad and evasions.
It seems you realize you don't know what you're talking about WRT science and 
belief.   Looks like you're resorting to being coy so you won't be caught out.
But I could be wrong.  Perhaps you really do have a cogent idea discuss. 
Seems unlikely, but why don't you try again?
Take your time. I can wait.
-- 
Dan
"Don't make me nervous when I'm carryin' a baseball bat."
- Big Joe Turner
POerhaps he meant science and bullshit. 
Bertie
> 
> 
Well, you just sort of proved you really don't understand what the
scientific method is, or indeed what a scientific theory is, and you
also made a false assumption about me.
A hint. Scientific theories aren't something you believe in. In fact,
the scientific method spends most of its time trying not to "believe"
theories, but instead disprove them. A big part of a scientist's job is
to poke holes in theories.
-- 
From the sunny Isle of Man.
Yes, the Reply-To email address is valid.
Yes I do believe there is a reason and that reason is explained by a 
scientific theory.
> Well, you just sort of proved you really don't understand what the
> scientific method is, or indeed what a scientific theory is, and you
> also made a false assumption about me.
> 
> A hint. Scientific theories aren't something you believe in. In fact,
> the scientific method spends most of its time trying not to "believe"
> theories, but instead disprove them. A big part of a scientist's job is
> to poke holes in theories.
We've spent way too much time arguing about semantics.
Science is based on empirical evidence. But most science is based on 
studies that were performed by someone else, in some lab with very 
specifically managed conditions that often cannot be duplicated by you or I 
in our homes.
The results of an experiment might be documented in some journal or 
textbook, but at the end of the day, because the typical layman cannot 
really duplicate the environment, there is an element of faith that the 
experiment and related controls were not corrupted by some unseen element.
As you yourself have said, in many cases scientific theories are disproven, 
even after they have been "proven" using experiments with controls, etc. 
This can happen for any number of reasons - bad assumptions, lack of 
control of variables that were perceived to be irrelevant to the 
experiment, or even bias on the part of the experimenter.
The bottom line is that while some science is certainly observable by the 
layman and therefore perhaps indisputable, other science is founded in an 
element of faith or trust in the people who have performed the experiments 
and provided the results.
To religious people, there are empirical, observable situations that lend 
themselves to a theory that the "natural order of things" is controlled by 
something other than randomness. Some people call this "God". Personally, 
I'm not sure that the visions evoked in most people by the word "God" are 
accurate, but I do believe that it is likely that things like evolution, 
gravity, childbirth, Shakespeare, etc. all happen as a result of something 
other than randomness, even if the mechanisms can often be duplicated in a 
lab.
Most people either believe that the world is governed by Science or God, 
and take very adverse positions against anyone who might believe the two 
can co-exist. But the bottom line is that ultimately, any time you put your 
trust in something that you've been told, other than having observed it 
personally, it requires a little bit of faith...
> Yes I do believe there is a reason and that reason is explained by a 
> scientific theory.
Exactly.
>> Perhaps you meant, "scientific faith and religious conviction."
> 
> No.  I am attempting to entice you into making a definitive statement 
> explaining what your point is.
> 
> Up to now, you've provided word salad and evasions.
> 
> It seems you realize you don't know what you're talking about WRT
> science and belief.   Looks like you're resorting to being coy so you
> won't be caught out. 
> 
> But I could be wrong.  Perhaps you really do have a cogent idea discuss.
> Seems unlikely, but why don't you try again?
> 
> Take your time.  I can wait.
For your benefit, I posted a more detailed explanation of my opinion in 
another post.
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.aviation.piloting/msg/f70a667960c4fe6f
I have no problem envisioning a scientific God.
-- 
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com 
"Your Aviation Destination"
Bollocks. You haven't a clue.
Believe what you will.
>> Most people either believe that the world is governed by Science or
>> God, 
> 
> I have no problem envisioning a scientific God.
Bullshit, you have a problem envisioning a god made out of a teacpot.
Bertiiiiii