OT: Muslims Winning By Population Growth
Howard Duck
Francis A. Miniter
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-3X5hIFXYU
When I hear such arguments, I remember when, not that long
ago - in the 1970s, when all you ever read in the economics
world was that Japan's economy was growing faster than that
of the USA and that it would eventually overtake the
American economy in raw GDP. Well, Japan crashed in the
1990s and took close to 10 years to end its long recession
(the "Lost Decade") and now while still weak is being hit
another blow. The vaunted prediction failed. And had to
fail, when you think about it. The human and natural
resources of Japan have limits.
So when I hear such claims as the one you now put forth,
Howard, you won't mind if I tend to be somewhat skeptical.
Even assuming for the moment that the fertility rates quoted
are accurate, that is just the beginning of an analysis.
The video declares without citing evidence that a society
cannot "recover" from fertility rates less than 1.3. That
loaded statement has many assumptions in it, including but
not limited to the assumption that there is some sort of
failure occurring with a reduced population rate. The
declaration makes it appear that a country would just
depopulate in time. Hogwash. I know of absolutely no
historical evidence for that.
Depopulations occur from genocidal wars, pandemic infections
(which still leave usually at least half of the population
alive) and destruction of natural resources (e.g. Ratatui).
This latter factor may be associated with overpopulation.
Given the extreme population growth of the world due to
modern medicine, some countries have determined that a
negative population growth for a while has value socially
and economically. China is the most famous example.
Despite the claims of the video, Iran for instance, is not
growing fast. After a change in political policy in 1989,
it cut its fertility rate in half in a decade, and as of
2005, it stood at 1.3. According to that video, Iran should
never be able to "recover". Or do doom and gloom
predictions only apply to the good guys. But think about it
for half a second. In the hot, dry, barren, rocky land of
Afghanistan, how would you feed double the current
populaiton? Where in Bangladesh, with a population density
of 1,055 per square kilometer is there room for any more to
live? And on what? So, there too, the fertility rate is
diminishing.
Lower fertility rates without longer lives would lead to
decreased populations IF continued on indefinitely. But
that assumption makes no sense. There is no reason to
presume that beyond a certain point, maybe when a certain
amount of land becomes available, people would continue to
not have children.
And of course, the whole thing overlooks (since it is a
*Christian* video) the huge continuing growth rates for
Brazil and Mexico. They are supplying you with huge numbers
of Christians. Or, wait, is there a covert racial issue
behind the video?
--
Francis A. Miniter
Oscuramente
libros, laminas, llaves
siguen mi suerte.
Jorge Luis Borges, La Cifra Haiku, 6
Joan in GB-W
"Howard Duck" <hbd...@geusnet.com> wrote in message
news:g98o05909fa31o25u...@4ax.com...
>
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-3X5hIFXYU
The last line in the video says This is a call to action. I wonder what
they meant.
By the way, if we go back far enough, the Native American population of the
USA was 100 percent. Now it is something like 1.5% of the population.
Sound fair to you?
Joan
Dorothy J Heydt
Francis A. Miniter <fami...@comcast.net> wrote:
>Howard Duck wrote:
>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-3X5hIFXYU
>
>When I hear such arguments, I remember when, not that long
>ago - in the 1970s, when all you ever read in the economics
>world was that Japan's economy was growing faster than that
>of the USA and that it would eventually overtake the
>American economy in raw GDP. Well, Japan crashed in the
>1990s and took close to 10 years to end its long recession
>(the "Lost Decade") and now while still weak is being hit
>another blow. The vaunted prediction failed. And had to
>fail, when you think about it. The human and natural
>resources of Japan have limits.
>
>So when I hear such claims as the one you now put forth,
>Howard, you won't mind if I tend to be somewhat skeptical.
And here in California we hear doomsayers predicting that in
a few years Hispanics will outnumber Anglos. And even before
that, in the 1950s, C. M. Kornbluth was having some fun with
the idea that smart people were limiting their families and
stupid people were breeding like rats and in the future there
would be a huge overpopulation of stupid people and a few
beleaguered smart people carrying the world on their
shoulders. I dunno if Kornbluth actually believed this
or whether he was just taking an annoying idea and running
with it (which he did in a story called "The Marching Morons"
and a novel with Frederik Pohl called _Search the Sky_), the
pre-computer equivalent of trolling.
Whatever.
What does happen is that as people acquire an education they
not only learn that there are ways of limiting one's family
-- they knew that already -- but that there are some benefits
to doing so. As soon as one is not a subsistence farmer any
more, an additional child is no longer another potential
farmhand; and as soon as a poor woman realizes she could
maybe get a part-time job (making something for sale, e.g.,
which she could do at home), she can think of something
better to do than having another baby.
Dorothy J. Heydt
Vallejo, California
djheydt at hotmail dot com
Should you wish to email me, you'd better use the hotmail edress.
Kithrup is getting too damn much spam, even with the sysop's filters.
Francis A. Miniter
Yes, and I should have mentioned that there may be a
fertility rate of 6.0 in Afghanistan, for instance, but not
many reach adulthood. The death rate there is 19.56 per
1,000, while in Canada it is 7.61 per 1,000. There are
valid reasons for some societies to have high fertility rates.
John Oliver
wrote:
Seems fair to me. Standard International Law. Protect your territory
or lose it.
--
John Oliver
jdol...@westnet.com.au
AIM or MSN jdoliver98
Howard Duck
likelihood that Muslim populations will overtake all other religious
cultures. The final statement seemed to say that Christians had
better be aware of the potential and extend the grace of Christian
gospel to as many as possible because Islam does not preach grace but
violence.
I guess those responding to the video don't agree with the above.
Surprising since I have never heard anyone here stand in defense of
Islam before. Wonders never cease. I thought you people only
defended Judaism and atheism, especially hating Christianity.
--
Howard
ELF
If I were to venture a guess, most here either are Christian, or
don't much care what other people's religion is - so long as they're not
trying to ram their beliefs down other peoples throats.
elf
--
http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=2004748&l=5bcaa&id=1221722477
Francis A. Miniter
Hi Howard,
Personally, I do not care for the teachings or culture of
Islam. But these projections are pure fantasy. If Canada
had the death rate that Afghanistan has, it would now be
empty of all people, given its low fertility rate. Then
again, if Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan
were to try to overtake India and China in population, with
their desert and barren mountains, they would have mass
starvation long before the population increases far from its
current levels.
Howard Duck
<fami...@comcast.net> wrote:
> Personally, I do not care for the teachings or culture of
> Islam. But these projections are pure fantasy. If Canada
> had the death rate that Afghanistan has, it would now be
> empty of all people, given its low fertility rate. Then
> again, if Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan
> were to try to overtake India and China in population, with
> their desert and barren mountains, they would have mass
> starvation long before the population increases far from its
> current levels.
>
> --
> Francis A. Miniter
I'm not sure what your contention is. The video stressed that
Europe's population is not decreasing because of the influx of Islamic
immigration. The same is true of Canada and the US has its increase
in Latino immigration. I don't know why you say what you are saying.
The video was talking about changing demographics, which is obviously
taking place.
People concerned about over population of the world - people like
Jacques Cousteau - have said that the world must experience a net
reduction in population of 300,000 people per day in order to provide
sustenance for all. AIDS was introduced in Africa to reduce
population growth. People like Bertrand Russell have said that we
must have birth control or else great plagues and wars to curb
population growth.
Of course, I know you are at least thirteen times smarter than those
people in your own eyes. Nevertheless, I don't believe you more than
I believe them. As to fabrication of the stats as stated, on what
ground do you say they are wrong? And remember, they are talking
about a change in the culture, not a dying out of an entire
population.
--
Howard
Francis A. Miniter
> On Fri, 15 May 2009 10:12:49 -0400, "Francis A. Miniter"
> <fami...@comcast.net> wrote:
>
>> Personally, I do not care for the teachings or culture of
>> Islam. But these projections are pure fantasy. If Canada
>> had the death rate that Afghanistan has, it would now be
>> empty of all people, given its low fertility rate. Then
>> again, if Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan
>> were to try to overtake India and China in population, with
>> their desert and barren mountains, they would have mass
>> starvation long before the population increases far from its
>> current levels.
>>
>> --
>> Francis A. Miniter
>
> I'm not sure what your contention is. The video stressed that
> Europe's population is not decreasing because of the influx of Islamic
> immigration. The same is true of Canada and the US has its increase
> in Latino immigration. I don't know why you say what you are saying.
> The video was talking about changing demographics, which is obviously
> taking place.
Immigration can change rapidly for many reasons. And source
of immigration matters. Immigration from Croatia to France
does not have the same effect as immigration from Iraq to
France. The Croatians were already Europeans. And
Immigration from Iraq was due to to the temporary chaos
there. Some of that will probably reverse soon.
Fertility rates can change for many reasons. Death rates
can change for many reasons.
>
> People concerned about over population of the world - people like
> Jacques Cousteau - have said that the world must experience a net
> reduction in population of 300,000 people per day in order to provide
> sustenance for all.
Jacques Cousteau was a noble man, but not a nutritionist or
an agronomist.
> AIDS was introduced in Africa to reduce
> population growth.
That is pure fantasy!
> People like Bertrand Russell have said that we
> must have birth control or else great plagues and wars to curb
> population growth.
>
At some point, that might become true.
> Of course, I know you are at least thirteen times smarter than those
> people in your own eyes.
Howard, Howard, Howard.
> Nevertheless, I don't believe you more than
> I believe them. As to fabrication of the stats as stated, on what
> ground do you say they are wrong?
I never said the statistics were "fabricated". I did say -
over and over again - that fertility rates are only one
factor of many that determines population growth.
> And remember, they are talking
> about a change in the culture, not a dying out of an entire
> population.
> --
Changes in culture are bidirectional when migrations occur.
The Visigoths invaded France in the 4th and 5th centuries
c.e., and took up Roman ways, for instance.
Pogonip
>
> Changes in culture are bidirectional when migrations occur. The
> Visigoths invaded France in the 4th and 5th centuries c.e., and took up
> Roman ways, for instance.
>
One solution to overpopulation -
http://failblog.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/fail-owned-friend-fail.jpg?w=500&h=375
--
Joanne
stitches @ singerlady.reno.nv.us.earth.milky-way.com
http://members.tripod.com/~bernardschopen/
Howard Duck
You are either a fool or else perversely trying to distort the truth.
--
Howard
Francis A. Miniter
I take it that since you have nothing of substance to say,
you revert to insult.
Howard Duck
<fami...@comcast.net> wrote:
> > You are either a fool or else perversely trying to distort the truth.
> > --
> > Howard
>
> I take it that since you have nothing of substance to say,
> you revert to insult.
>
> --
> Francis A. Miniter
In the first place, what happened in the historical settings you refer
to has nothing to do with what's happening today. In the second
place, what happened to the people then should not be taken with
complaisance by us as though it would not devastate our lives.
--
Howard
Francis A. Miniter
> On Sat, 16 May 2009 20:49:52 -0400, "Francis A. Miniter"
> <fami...@comcast.net> wrote:
>
>>> You are either a fool or else perversely trying to distort the truth.
>>> --
>>> Howard
>> I take it that since you have nothing of substance to say,
>> you revert to insult.
>>
>> --
>> Francis A. Miniter
>
> In the first place, what happened in the historical settings you refer
> to has nothing to do with what's happening today.
He says without any specifics.
Furthermore, you seem to deny the value of history. Hitler
could certainly have taken a valuable lesson from Napoleon's
assault on Russia. The Taliban in Pakistan this year could
certainly have taken a lesson from the events of 1831, when
their Wahhabist predecessors attacked from Buner too close
to Islamabad.
> In the second
> place, what happened to the people then
When?
> should not be taken with
> complaisance by us as though it would not devastate our lives.
> --
I just do not understand what that means. Are you
indirectly saying that if Islam became the world's largest
religion in terms of adherents that that would devastate our
lives?
And, speaking of devastation, you never did respond to
Joan's comment.
Howard Duck
<fami...@comcast.net> wrote:
> > In the second
> > place, what happened to the people then
>
> When?
Past movements of tribes into the territories occupied by other
groups.
> > should not be taken with
> > complaisance by us as though it would not devastate our lives.
> > --
>
> I just do not understand what that means. Are you
> indirectly saying that if Islam became the world's largest
> religion in terms of adherents that that would devastate our
> lives?
It absolutely would. Are you prepared to become a Muslim on threat of
your life?
> And, speaking of devastation, you never did respond to
> Joan's comment.
I don't know what that was?
--
Howard
Francis A. Miniter
> On Sun, 17 May 2009 10:21:36 -0400, "Francis A. Miniter"
> <fami...@comcast.net> wrote:
>
>>> In the second
>>> place, what happened to the people then
>> When?
>
> Past movements of tribes into the territories occupied by other
> groups.
>
That is awfully broad and vague. I have tried to be a bit
more specific.
>>> should not be taken with
>>> complaisance by us as though it would not devastate our lives.
>>> --
>> I just do not understand what that means. Are you
>> indirectly saying that if Islam became the world's largest
>> religion in terms of adherents that that would devastate our
>> lives?
>
> It absolutely would. Are you prepared to become a Muslim on threat of
> your life?
That is pretty much a myth. First of all, turning once
again to history, while during the Islamic expansion (635 -
900) the empire coopted armies from conquered countries, but
it did not force people to choose Islam at the point of a
sword as a general rule. There were exceptions, as in all
cases. If you examine the makeup of the army that Mehmed II
brought to Constantinople in 1453, you will find that there
were Christian units as well as Muslim units.
The nation that eventually sprang up from the Fall of
Constantinople, Turkey, has been an example of a secular
government in a Muslim majority society. In fact, for all
his other problems, Saddam Hussein managed to maintain a
secular society in Iraq. We can blame ourselves for
stirring up sectarian violence there. Indonesia admits of
many minorities, the largest being Chinese, without
compelling conversion to Islam.
Now, while I would not chose to live in a society operating
under Sharia, I do not see from anything you have said so
far that that is at all in the cards. If you see a pathway
to such a situation, please enlighten me.
Finally, just being the largest in numbers signifies
nothing. It may matter more where they are. See maps at
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_religious_groups
>
>> And, speaking of devastation, you never did respond to
>> Joan's comment.
>
> I don't know what that was?
On May 14th at 1:52 pm, Joan posted the following in
response to your original post:
-------------
The last line in the video says This is a call to action. I
wonder what they meant.
By the way, if we go back far enough, the Native American
population of the USA was 100 percent. Now it is something
like 1.5% of the population. Sound fair to you?
Joan
-------------
Howard Duck
wrote:
> "Howard Duck" <hbd...@geusnet.com> wrote in message
> news:g98o05909fa31o25u...@4ax.com...
> >
> > http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-3X5hIFXYU
>
>
> The last line in the video says This is a call to action. I wonder what
> they meant.
I think it means that Christians should fulfil the great commission:
Mark 16:15-16 And he said unto them, Go ye into all the world, and
preach the gospel to every creature. He that believeth and is baptized
shall be saved; but he that believeth not shall be damned.
> By the way, if we go back far enough, the Native American population of the
> USA was 100 percent. Now it is something like 1.5% of the population.
> Sound fair to you?
Not fair, but it was not the fulfillment of the great commission to
militantly take over territories of others. The first pilgrims didn't
do that (I think). But, of course, some native Americans were
militant about taking over the territories of other native Americans.
> Joan
--
Howard
Howard Duck
I have gone back and offered my reply.
--
Howard
Francis A. Miniter
> On Thu, 14 May 2009 12:52:26 -0500, "Joan in GB-W" <jjk...@aol.com>
> wrote:
>
>> "Howard Duck" <hbd...@geusnet.com> wrote in message
>> news:g98o05909fa31o25u...@4ax.com...
>>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-3X5hIFXYU
>>
>> The last line in the video says This is a call to action. I wonder what
>> they meant.
>
> I think it means that Christians should fulfil the great commission:
> Mark 16:15-16 And he said unto them, Go ye into all the world, and
> preach the gospel to every creature. He that believeth and is baptized
> shall be saved; but he that believeth not shall be damned.
>
>> By the way, if we go back far enough, the Native American population of the
>> USA was 100 percent. Now it is something like 1.5% of the population.
>> Sound fair to you?
>
> Not fair, but it was not the fulfillment of the great commission to
> militantly take over territories of others. The first pilgrims didn't
> do that (I think).
The first Pilgrim colony at Plymouth came into contact with
the Wamampoags through Squanto, an Indian fully conversant
in English when he met them at Plymouth. Some years
earlier, a European ship had landed near there and had
kidnapped him. He was sold into slavery, escaped to
England, worked for a merchant there and made his way by
ship back to North America, and walked (probably from Nova
Scotia or Maine) to his home village, where he found all had
died from disease brought by the Europeans.
The Pilgrims at first made a treaty with the Wamampoags
through their chief, Massasoit. But the English maintained
that they now owned more and more land to the exclusion of
the Wamampoags, whose beliefs were far more Christ-like,
that one only used the land as and when needed for survival
and shared it with others for the same purpose. After the
death of Massasoit, his son, King Philip, could no longer
accept this abuse of the land by the English, and made war.
The Wamampoags soon disappeared, devastated by the war and
further ruined by diseases brought from Europe.
Source: William Bradford, A History of Plymouth Plantation
Other wars with other tribes followed as Pilgrims, Puritans,
Quakers, and others pushed inland, taking Indian lands as
they went. The Micmacs of Newfoundland died out from
disease, for instance, even without war.
Suggested Readings:
Colden Cadwallader, The History of the Five Indian Nations
John Ehle, Trail of Tears: The Rise and Fall of the Cherokee
Nation
Dee Brown, Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee: An Indian History
of the American West
Bartolomeo de Las Casas, A Brief Account of the Destruction
of the Indians
> But, of course, some native Americans were
> militant about taking over the territories of other native Americans.
>
The pre-European warfare of North American Indians is not a
topic with which I am very familiar. Perhaps, you could
elaborate.
David Johnston
wrote:
>It absolutely would. Are you prepared to become a Muslim on threat of
>your life?
Since the Muslims, unlike Christians have not in fact historically
done that and by the time they could conceivably become a majority in
North America they will be so changed as to be unrecognisable, not
really an issue.
Nicolas Krebs
> Subject: OT: Muslims Winning By Population Growth
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-3X5hIFXYU
See a debunk of this faked video (although funny, especially
the 8.1 children/woman fertility rate of Muslims in France)
in Tiny Frog, "Muslim Demographics", 2009-05-03,
http://tinyfrog.wordpress.com/2009/05/03/muslim-demographics/
and Duncan Macleod, "Muslim Demographics on YouTube Abuse of Statistics",
Postkiwi Duncan Macleod, 2009-05-11,
http://www.postkiwi.com/2009/muslim-demographics-on-youtube-abuse-of-statistics/
--
"a repetition of the racist Nazi rhetoric against the Jews"
"the false nightmarish image of a France dominated by Jews"
Nicolas Krebs
> I never said the statistics were "fabricated".
I did.
Francis A. Miniter
> Howard Duck wrote in news:g98o05909fa31o25u...@4ax.com
>
>> Subject: OT: Muslims Winning By Population Growth
>
>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-3X5hIFXYU
>
> See a debunk of this faked video (although funny, especially
> the 8.1 children/woman fertility rate of Muslims in France)
> in Tiny Frog, "Muslim Demographics", 2009-05-03,
> http://tinyfrog.wordpress.com/2009/05/03/muslim-demographics/
A very well done refutation. I commend the authors for
their work. It must have taken considerable time and effort
to delve into all that detail.
> and Duncan Macleod, "Muslim Demographics on YouTube Abuse of Statistics",
> Postkiwi Duncan Macleod, 2009-05-11,
> http://www.postkiwi.com/2009/muslim-demographics-on-youtube-abuse-of-statistics/
>
--
Howard Duck
<nicolas...@netcourrier.com> wrote:
> Howard Duck wrote in news:g98o05909fa31o25u...@4ax.com
>
> > Subject: OT: Muslims Winning By Population Growth
>
> > http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-3X5hIFXYU
>
> See a debunk of this faked video (although funny, especially
> the 8.1 children/woman fertility rate of Muslims in France)
> in Tiny Frog, "Muslim Demographics", 2009-05-03,
> http://tinyfrog.wordpress.com/2009/05/03/muslim-demographics/
> and Duncan Macleod, "Muslim Demographics on YouTube Abuse of Statistics",
> Postkiwi Duncan Macleod, 2009-05-11,
> http://www.postkiwi.com/2009/muslim-demographics-on-youtube-abuse-of-statistics/
Maybe the people that made the video really are friends of Muslims.
Maybe they set up a straw man that could be shot down. I don't know.
I do believe we are experiencing a change of cultures worldwide, and
from my own perspective it bodes ill for Christian values. Let others
think as they will.
2 Timothy 3:1-5 (paraphrase) You can be certain that in the last days
there will be some very hard times. People will love only themselves
and money. They will be proud, stuck-up, rude, and disobedient to
their parents. They will also be ungrateful, godless, heartless, and
hateful. Their words will be cruel, and they will have no self-control
or pity. These people will hate everything that is good. They will be
sneaky, reckless, and puffed up with pride. Instead of loving God,
they will love pleasure. Even though they will make a show of being
religious, their religion won't be real. Don't have anything to do
with such people.
--
Howard
Nicolas Krebs
> Let others
> think as they will.
What do you mean? Do I forbid somebody to think as he will?
> 2 Timothy 3:1-5
Matthew 7:5
Luke 6:41
Matthew 24:11
Mark 13:22
Peter2 2:1
Howard Duck
<nicolas...@netcourrier.com> wrote:
> Howard Duck wrote in news:e7u315dv7supc234a...@4ax.com
>
> > Let others
> > think as they will.
>
> What do you mean? Do I forbid somebody to think as he will?
>
> > 2 Timothy 3:1-5
>
> Matthew 7:5
> Luke 6:41
> Matthew 24:11
> Mark 13:22
> Peter2 2:1
I'm sorry if it sounded like I was targeting you with my quotations.
That was not my intention. I was simply generalizing.
--
Howard