VHS vs Beta - future considerations
sta...@trwspp.uucp
[]
I have my clunky old VHS machine. You have your zippy Beta machine.
We're both happy.... how long will it last?
I was looking at VCR's (before I got one as a present), and in all
the stores I visited, I asked how sales were. Most stores said VHS outsold
Beta more than 10:1, some as high as 25:1, and some as low as 4:1.
How will this effect you? Well, believe it or not, all of the
companies that produce VCR's want to *make money*. They will invest in
and research the more lucrative markets. So, if you're a producer of
VCR's, and you can pick to revolutionize the video market with a brand
new, wonderful, microprocessor-controlled VCR, which one are you going
to make? Right... VHS. Why? Because there is much more of a market for it.
Commercial companies only research if it will *pay off*, and the more,
the merrier.
Now, ten years down the line, your old Sony-whatever breaks down,
and its time to buy a new VCR. Your whole 1,000 tape library is in Beta
format, so you have to buy a Beta machine. You look around you, and see
that all of the engineering time and effort has gone into improving VHS
machines, and that Beta machines have all but stagnated.
How can I make a prediction like this? Well, look at the 8-inch
floppy drive. Yes, they're still around, but they haven't been improved
and worked on like the 5-1/4 inch drives have simply because THEY ARE NOT AS
POPULAR. You can get (*now*) quad-density 5-1/4 inch drives, and research
is going in to making the magnetic fields "vertical" (rather than horizontal
as they are now). 8-inch drives have only been improved as a result of
improvements in 5-1/4 inch drive technology which could be transferred.
VHS machines may be clunky, and slow, and not have the sound
quality that Beta machines do (for the same price), NOW. Wait five to
ten years, then come back and we'll have another comparison test...
including tape prices and such. I'm willing to bet (I am "betting"
several hundred dollars by owning the machine) that VHS will be a much
better investment than Beta in the long run.
And I'm not about to invest several hundred dollars in something
that is going to cause me to have to copy several dozen tapes whenever
Beta falls off the market. There are rumors now that Sony is planning
to drop their line of Beta recorders (the prices plummeted here in L.A.).
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The opinions expressed in this document are my own. They are not intended to
reflect the views of my employer - TRW - or anyone else. Intelligent and
responsible commentaries should be directed to me; Flames to the bit bucket.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Christian W. Stassen [decvax!trwrb,vortex,ihnp4!vortex]!trwspp!stassen
"If we knew what the hell we were doing, then it wouldn't be research."
R.GRANTGES
You must be absolutely right because you sound logical. That must
explain why Sony invented Hi-Fi a year and a half (market time)
before the VHS'rs. Also Beta Movie, Cassette changers, etc., etc.
Yes in deed, I always wondered how they could do that so consistently.
I used to think it was because some few firms (silly and deluded) had
their eye fixed on technology rather than maximizing the current
bottom line. The latter view (current bottom line uber alles) is what
has killed industry in this country. It seems to have afflicted the
behemoths of VHS. Dick Grantges hound!rfg
Jeff Meyer
incompatible with current VHS technology. So we'd all be out of luck.
Just a thought.
Moriarty, aka Jeff Meyer
John Fluke Mfg. Co., Inc.
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sta...@trwspp.uucp
Technology and quality have nothing at all to do with who wins the
war... the sole factor in that is how popular they are, because the
companies which sell the most popular models will have the most money and
incentive to invest in more research, creating better systems, and gaining
even larger portions of the market. It's like a vicious circle ... once
a company starts gaining, only a catastrophe will prevent it from continuing
to take over almost all of the market. The most popular format WILL BECOME
the highest quality format, even though it may not be now. It was actually
a good move on the part of the "behemoths of VHS" to make a low-end system
which MADE MONEY. This gave them a base to create systems competitive with
Beta.
Sony may have its eye fixed on technology, and they certainly do
have a good track record (eg trinitron), but VHS versus Beta is a little
different. Had Sony made a Trinitron which was incompatible with more
than half of the broadcasting stations in the US, I doubt that they would
have done quite as well. The one thing which is MOST important to ANY
company is $$$. Sony invented hi-fi first because they have (so far)
made a reasonable profit from Beta, and can continue to pour research
dollars into it. There are rumors circulating (through distributors in
L.A.) that Sony is not going to continue to pour those dollars into
research because they feel that they are not gaining enough of the market
(due to the popularity of VHS). If and when that ever happens, it spells
the end for Beta ... no more real improvements (though you may still be
able to buy them).
Sometimes you can win with technology. Right now,
Beta isn't significantly better than VHS (according to most people who
are laying out MORE money to buy a comparative VHS unit), and VHS
certainly is more popular. This may be a case where you can't win
with *only* technology ... it requires popularity and availability as
well, especially when there are conflicting competitors. Example:
Dolby versus DBX. Dolby B had 10x noise reduction (approx), DBX
comes out with 1000x, but it was incompatible with Dolby, who already
had almost all of the market. Last I heard, Dolby C (about 100x) was
way ahead of DBX. Technology didn't win - compatibility and market
share did! All figures are to order-of-magnitude and VERY approximate.
I looked seriously at both Beta and VHS, and decided on VHS not
because it was better engineered (because it probably isn't), but because
several years down the line it probably will be. The sole point to be
gained from my article was that nobody seems to consider this when buying
a VCR; they only look at what is best *now*. That's not planning for
the future, and not a wise way to make a major purchase. Would you buy
a new car without knowing how much it would be likely to break down? That
wouldn't be planning for the future. Would you save $50 on an air
conditioner which eats $3 more in electricity per month than a more
efficient (but slightly more expensive) model? That also would not be
planning for the future. Would you buy a VCR without looking at how
available tapes will be, or how good the one you replace it with will
be? Be a smart shopper ... you've got to look around, and consider more
than the present!
Comprendez?
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The opinions expressed in this document are my own. They are not intended to
reflect the views of my employer - TRW - or anyone else. Intelligent and
responsible commentaries should be directed to me; Flames to the bit bucket.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Christian W. Stassen [decvax!trwrb,vortex,ihnp4!vortex]!trwspp!stassen
"If we knew what the hell we were doing, then it wouldn't be research."
Organization: AT&T Bell Labs, Holmdel NJ
Lines: 10
mi...@trsvax.uucp
If you are so sure about the demise of Beta, please explain how Beta HiFi
(This includes stereo) is going to "Fade Away" at current <$600 prices
while VHS HiFi is >$1000 list. I'll grant you that VHS is the more popular
format, but Beta is not dead. I've owned two different Beta units so far.
My next unit will be a Beta HiFi.
mikey at trsvax
Keith Doyle
> Sometimes you can win with technology. Right now,
> Beta isn't significantly better than VHS (according to most people who
> are laying out MORE money to buy a comparative VHS unit), and VHS
> certainly is more popular. This may be a case where you can't win
> with *only* technology ... it requires popularity and availability as
> well, especially when there are conflicting competitors. Example:
> Dolby versus DBX. Dolby B had 10x noise reduction (approx), DBX
> comes out with 1000x, but it was incompatible with Dolby, who already
> had almost all of the market. Last I heard, Dolby C (about 100x) was
> way ahead of DBX. Technology didn't win - compatibility and market
> share did! All figures are to order-of-magnitude and VERY approximate.
I agree. De facto standards have a MAJOR effect on new products. Ever
think what kind of color T.V. could be produced if it didn't have to be
compatible with NTSC to have any market?
Personally, I'm real hesitant to jump on any new tech bandwagon that may
be just a flash in the pan. Read only video disks, CD's (remember 4 track
cartrige tapes {or 8 track for that matter}, Quad, etc.) may all be just
fads, and I'm not independently wealthy enough to sink hard earned $$$'s
into something just because its so super Hi-Tech that it's neat.
I'll give 'em a few years, enough time to insure that the new features
are enough to maintain sufficient popularity, or until they come out with
De Facto compatible models that I can use with some already existing
media.
Keith Doyle
{ucbvax,decvax}!trwrb!cadovax!keithd
Don Wegeng
quality, but I would also bet that MOST people buy a VCR which is
compatable with the one's that their friends have. This is suppose
to allow for easy sharing of tapes, etc. [I thought this also,
but personally have not found many ocasions where I wanted to
share tapes.]
While VHS is the overall sales leader in the country, there are also
areas where Beta sells more. Rochester NY (where I live) is an example
of such an area. My friends in the industry say that this is because
Beta caught on fast here, and therefore has remained dominant.
--
/Don
"I ain't 'fraid of no hole!"
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new...@ucbtopaz.cc.berkeley.arpa
late-arriving (to cassettes) competitors like dbx to illustrate the point that
inferior technology can dominate through huckstering marketing is exactly,
one hundred-eighty degrees inaposite. The example actually demonstrates
the opposite condition: Dolby's technologies by and large represent the
unusual triumph of ingenious, thorough and honestly represented engineering
methods in a market made by Barnums. Dbx, while a sound enough approach
(purloined from telco practice common since compandors were developed)
*when applied to relatively unimpaired media*, is ballyhooed in a meaningless
and misleading cloud of hoopla which concentrates on a single number purported
to represent the "quantity" of noise reduction.
To learn how to think about the problem of noise reduction, as well as to
read a superb model of a well-crafted and concise engineering paper, there
is still no better beginning than Ray Dolby's "An Audio Noise Reduction System"..
wq
Gary Traveis
(bug busters)
It really doesn't matter which is better Beta or VHS!
If you want to trade with friends, then what do THEY use?
If you want lots of movies - you probably would be better off
with VHS. (here, beta movies are hard to find)
If you want super high quality GET A LASER DISK !!!
If you want to be compatible in the long term, don't worry,
all of the Japan-based video companies have standardized
on the next wave of VCRs -- and it's 1/4 inch!
If you must record, and sit around worrying about S/N and
how many times you can dub a tape - GET A 3/4" or 1" deck.
All of this flaming is a waste of everyone's time.
Enough said.
Mike Rodriquez
HUH???