The Adaptive Value of Fear vs Foresight

[paradox]

I recall an earlier post in which rigsy suggested an enduring adaptive
value to the emotion of Fear; i was thinking about this today in the
context of the global market gymnastics this week, akin to a neurotic
on steroids; nothing fundamental or new in global economic terms has
changed this week, no new notable insights of structurally significant
proportions; in short, nothing new. Yet, we're 10%+ and 3 trillion
dollars worse of on Friday than we were this time last week. Was this
not essentially what we developed Foresight to counterbalance, i
wonder?

[ornamentalmind]

Ultimately, there is precious little rational when it comes to the
market and/or economics in general.

[allan deheretic]

the only rational i see is short term greed. an area where  little forsight and planning are needed.

Allan

--
 (   
  )   
I_D Allan

If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,

[rigsy03]

I would correct the term fear to caution which is a natural component
of foresight. Some might call it a sizing up. For some reason, I am
thinking of Ulysses- Homer's, not Grant. Perhaps the purpose of the
Boy Scout motto, "Be Prepared"? Of course we cannot control all the
factors that affect us in life but that brings to mind the over-
controlled life versus one that adapts and is flexible- the extremes
of being set in one's ways and the dewy naif who trusts all-
everything and everybody.

I find it troubling that the lead headline is S&P's rating versus the
loss of our Special Forces.

I have long thought that many survival/social instincts begin in the
nursery among siblings as they vie for attention, position within the
family- like children seem to hop on their own branch on the family
tree in order to be unique or special. Those "skills" carry forward
into school cliques and later work and social roles.

Some have commented that S&P has no business rating anything since it
is a private company or that the USA can carry any debt it pleases
since it is the SuperPower above and beyond ordinary rules and
policies.

[rigsy03]

There is greed for some but there is also the very real fact that we
live in a capitalist society whose purpose is profit. Capitalism
defines America more than Democracy, imo.

On Aug 6, 2:29 am, allan deheretic <dehere...@gmail.com> wrote:
> the only rational i see is short term greed. an area where  little forsight
> and planning are needed.
> Allan
>
> On Sat, Aug 6, 2011 at 2:07 AM, ornamentalmind

> <ornsmindseyes...@yahoo.com>wrote:

[rigsy03]

Epimetheus got into as much "hot water" as Prometheus!

On Aug 6, 2:29 am, allan deheretic <dehere...@gmail.com> wrote:

> the only rational i see is short term greed. an area where  little forsight
> and planning are needed.
> Allan
>
> On Sat, Aug 6, 2011 at 2:07 AM, ornamentalmind

> <ornsmindseyes...@yahoo.com>wrote:

[ornamentalmind]

Corporatism is at the center of most such issues rigsy…true. And it is
in this light that rather than ‘troubling’, the headlines are
consistent with their legal and fiduciary obligations (bottom line and
stock holders) rather than representing any human quality like
compassion. In this light, it is all quite predictable.

[ornamentalmind]

Actually, the ideology of capitalism isn’t codified anywhere. It
represents aspects of human passions such as avarice etc. so is but
the result of these passions.

[paradox]

You're certainly right when it comes to markets, orn.

> > wonder?- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

[allan deheretic]

Corporations are really a major part of the problem.. corporations have taken all the rights of a human person and limited the responsibility and liability.. Many of them are in violation of their corporate agreements that created them in the fist place..  they agree not violate any of the laws of the state or nation..  one thing they do is violate that clause because no one will challenge them on that level.

In theory when a corporation violates the law the corporation ceases to exist exposing the stock holders to the total value of all their assets, instead of just the money they invested..

I have the idea that a corporation have a limited life span of say 65 years after which they must be auctioned off in a public auction and all patents and copy rights rxpire in ten years after their demise.

Allan

[paradox]

I hear you, rigsy.

Considering markets are often way ahead of the economic cycle, caution
might have best described the market lethargy prior to the fear driven
"correction" of the past week, all considered. The global economy has
gradually but steadily been absorbing higher commodities pricing, re-
configuring economic value space, and re-balancing global growth. It's
curious and unusual to see the markets well behind the curve, and
thats the work of naked fear, and opportunistic speculation (no
criticism, just observation).

The S&P action, unfortunate in its timing, is more a political rebuke
than a meaningful statement of financial "risk"; and yes, it's
significance is disproportionate; these are febrile times.

[Don Johnson]

Hm. I disagree with describing the times as febrile. Stagnate is more like it. Perhaps the day traders are febrile but I have no respect or sympathy for them. The 500 pt. drop on the DOW represents a run to cash. Motivated less by fear, I think, then exasperation with a President and a Congress that fail to see the gravity of the situation and have the guts to do something about it. A government unwilling to even take half-measures to begin a recovery. In short, a response to cowardice and ineptitude. The deficit most trying us now isn't that of GDP to revenue it's lack of competent leadership. Instead we have a 'leader' completely blaming one branch of the government for all the problems as if 6 straight years of Democratic control of Congress had nothing to do with our current problems. It shouldn't be that hard to admit there's plenty of blame to share between all the branches including the Federal Reserve. Less partisanship and more focus please. 

Unfortunately for us too much attention has been on deliberately increasing the role of government in people's lives. It's expensive and it's inefficient. I understand TARP. I understand spending your way out of a recession. Perhaps it would be a good time to step up road repair and bridge building and whatever infrastructure we might need in the next few years and just borrow and get it done NOW. More importantly though we need a clear and honest effort to reign in the reckless spending on entitlements. Our future depends on it. Too much has been promised and the hard decisions on how to break those promises have to be made but clearly they won't be by Barack Obama or this Congress. Hard times are coming; ya'll ain't seen nothing yet.  

Vote change in 2012. 

dj

[allan deheretic]

The reckless spending on entitlements?  What entitlements what entitlements? The republican party has affectingly destroyed them since Reagan entered office. that is there to protect society.

Or are you talking about redoing the tax laws and removing all the loop holes to avoid paying takes or the bloated war machine..  oh I forgot killing people in war and making weapons to murder innocent people is creating jobs.

that is right Vote for real change  in  2012..

[ornamentalmind]

I agree with Don here. There have been way too many entitlements and
for way too long. No, I don’t mean the amount spent for social
services etc. I mean the money earmarked for the Corporations
responsible for the maintenance of the Military-Industrial Complex.
Those who survive by war profiteering.

For way too long they have been lining up at the trough and assuming
that their product should come before the general welfare and good.
Yes, we need to provide for the common defense. However, the rate of
such a provision is very out of balance and threatens to destroy our
great nation. Yes, using public money (tax payer money) to keep the
CEOs, employees and stockholders of companies like GE, Bowing,
Halliburton, Xe Services, Lockheed-Martin, Honeywell, General
Dynamics, Colt’s Manufacturing Company, Northrop Grumman Corporation,
Pratt and Whitney, Smith and Wesson, Sikorsky Aircraft, THOR Global
Defense Group, AAI Technologies, BAE Systems Inc., Alliant
Technologies, Bushmaster Firearms International, General Atomics etc.
employed helps to keep them off of other welfare rolls. However, since
their products are in no way associated with being renewable, the
continued overuse of this largest segment of the private sector and
public funds will continue to not only drain our coffers but will
continue to pollute our environment and destroy valuable resources
that could much better be used elsewhere.

Yes, I know that it might take some additional welfare to retrain
these people but it would be well worth it.

[allan deheretic]

that I Totally agree with.. Orn  those entitlements need to go..  except those are the very entitlements that brought on the budget crisis and the republicans will protct to their dyinng breath..

Allan

[rigsy03]

I think Obama will be re-elected or we will face riots.

> > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

[allan deheretic]

very real possibility..  I think the blinders are starting to come off.

Allan

[Don Johnson]

On Sun, Aug 7, 2011 at 11:13 AM, rigsy03 <rig...@gmail.com> wrote:

I think Obama will be re-elected or we will face riots.

Well, that may be the case. I obviously think he's wrong on his economic views and the current situation after 2 and a half years of his policies would seem to bear that out to a reasonably minded person. However, he's not all bad. He's doing a bang-up job killing terrorists. Getting us embroiled in two extra wars by executive privilege probably wasn't a good idea but he's still a foreign policy rookie so I'm willing to cut him some slack. Besides, as Orn says, it's good for the economy to keep our warriors busy.  He's made a few other good decisions such as abandoning the silly notion of trying terrorists on US soil and closing Gitmo and letting the Bush tax cuts expire. It's entirely likely he will eventually come around on other important issues as well as we get closer to November 2012. Our credit rating agencies have hopefully forced him to recognize the error of his ways and he will reform before elections take it out of his hands. One can only hope for the best but prepare for the worst. 

As much as the media is in his pocket it's disturbing to me how he's squandered his chances of making some real headway in repairing the economy. It's staggering really. To paraphrase Pink Floyd:

what have we done obama what have we done
what have we done to America
should we shout should we scream
"what happened to the post war dream?"
oh obama obama what have we done? 

dj

[allan deheretic]

You are a smart woman Rigsy and have watched the political situation through many presidents   ... You do remember  Reagan  don't you?  remember the great Reaganomics the great economic plan put forth by the Republican Party and their stooge Reagan? What you are seeing is the effect of this economic and government policies put forth by the republican party  and their leadership blindly cling to denying all responsibility for the problems.

  

I do not see the complaining about the expiring of the Bush Tax cuts  as he immediately increased the national debt by five trillion under the guidance total approval of a republican controlled house and senate. It is a Republican controlled house and senate that jumped on the Bush/Iraq war band wagon. Their actions bringing on the need to go several more trillion in debt to trying to dig the country out of the economic.

ALL POLITICIANS NEED TO ACCEPT FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ACTIONS THEY HAVE CAUSED!!!!!! that includes both parties..   All politicians  need to get off the corporate bribary dole the fancy meal private air craft gold games   ao they can get exclusive access to bribe them this reelection funds if the do what they want..

Until the people of world take control of all of their governments and stop listing propaganda but out to deceive them.. doubt of that happening the Republicans have successfully  created a nation  unable understand what is going on..

Allan

 

[rigsy03]

I have to correct your impression, Allan. I was pretty oblivious to
politics until 2000 though I voted- often for independents like
Anderson, what's his name with the charts and big ears, and the
Lebanese guy with lemons and love for his mother- not very astute, I'd
say.Didn't like beta Gore, thought Kerry was a fortune-hunter, never
believed either Clinton- or Johnson. Well, I could go on but as you
can see I am erratic- yes- I voted for Goldwater!!! But I also voted
for McGovern, later!!! As for Reagan, I was also indifferent but a
friend put up any nasty cartoon about him she could find on her fridge
to the point of obsession. I did notice great political intensity with
friends who were younger by 9 or 10 years but much less with those my
own age. But why, is a different topic.

Anyway, there is enough to blame on both sides of the aisle and
frankly I think politics are nasty and don't think I would have been a
suffragette and wasn't a bra-burning militant feminist though I read a
few books- Friedan, Millet, Greer- and was unimpressed-they just
sounded frustrated and foolish. Maybe I was ruined by literature! I
was watching "A House Divided" about the Lincolns and honestly thought
they had severe psychological problems.

Oh well- try to be merciful...

On Aug 8, 2:08 am, allan deheretic <dehere...@gmail.com> wrote:
> You are a smart woman Rigsy and have watched the political situation through
> many presidents   ... You do remember  Reagan  don't you?  remember the
> great Reaganomics the great economic plan put forth by the Republican Party
> and their stooge Reagan? What you are seeing is the effect of this economic
> and government policies put forth by the republican party  and their
> leadership blindly cling to denying all responsibility for the problems.
>
> I do not see the complaining about the expiring of the Bush Tax cuts  as he
> immediately increased the national debt by five trillion under
> the guidance total approval of a republican controlled house and senate. It
> is a Republican controlled house and senate that jumped on the Bush/Iraq war
> band wagon. Their actions bringing on the need to go several more trillion
> in debt to trying to dig the country out of the economic.
>
> ALL POLITICIANS NEED TO ACCEPT FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ACTIONS THEY HAVE
> CAUSED!!!!!! that includes both parties..   All politicians  need to get off
> the corporate bribary dole the fancy meal private air craft gold games   ao
> they can get exclusive access to bribe them this reelection funds if the do
> what they want..
>
> Until the people of world take control of all of their governments and stop
> listing propaganda but out to deceive them.. doubt of that happening the
> Republicans have successfully  created a nation  unable understand what is
> going on..
> Allan
>
>
>
>
>
> On Mon, Aug 8, 2011 at 12:05 AM, Don Johnson <daj...@gmail.com> wrote:
>

> Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,- Hide quoted text -

[allan deheretic]

Sorry Rigsy,,  interesting you and many others talk about personality,,  it seems that never relates to actions or accomplishments..

Indecently a few years back Bill Clinton was on Oprah promoting Kiva  ,,  Kiva is all about micro loans helping people..  I stuck around $200 into it.. lost some money on one loan.. but that is okay. there is $21.99 in my Kiva credit  before long it will reach $25.oo I will make another loan   along with a group of other investors  I have $158.34 in out standing loans..

This very minor amount of money I have made 43 loans of $25 each  all around the world.. including the US this is not a donation  it is a loan. have never had more fun playing banker with my $200. than I have had playing with anything I have bought. http://www.kiva.org/ if you are interested I will send you an invite but you do not need one to help that is if you are interested.

I have made those 43  (ongoing) as the results of the efforts of Bill Clinton (he makes loans too)  that is looking at the effect a person has not his personality.. When you talk about government you have to look at what they do not their personalities.  What has the weasel Bush done.. wrote his memoirs. when he leaves his hide out (a political bribe ) he has to have a high severity team to prevent him from being killed. he came over here to Europe and was run out of town..  

I believe ex Senator Dole the Senate Republican major and Bush Buddy  was indicted of FELONY charges in Texas the sate he represented..

Being a Senator or Representative in the USA should be about what they can do to protect the all of the people not how much money they can get in bribery.. by what ever means needed.

My apologies for ragging on.

Allan

[Don Johnson]

You're talking about Tom DeLay. Republican and former majority leader
in the house. Represented Sugarland which is part of the greater
Houston area. Got busted for funneling cash from corps. to Texas
politicians. 3 years in prison I think. Good riddance. Doesn't appear
like Bush's much ballyhoo'ed 'cronyism' has done much for his buddies
DeLay and Libby.

Yeah, DeLay was know as "the Hammer" and was a force to be reckoned
with back in the day. Now he's prison bound. Which reminds me of a
song...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bi6YHWjy3uU&feature=fvst

Incidentally, Texas just closed this prison Lead Belly is singing
about. In Sugarland. Sweet.

dj

On Aug 8, 12:36 pm, allan deheretic <dehere...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Sorry Rigsy,,  interesting you and many others talk about personality,,  it
> seems that never relates to actions or accomplishments..
>
> Indecently a few years back Bill Clinton was on Oprah promoting Kiva  ,,
>  Kiva is all about micro loans helping people..  I stuck around $200 into
> it.. lost some money on one loan.. but that is okay. there is $21.99 in my
> Kiva credit  before long it will reach $25.oo I will make another loan
> along with a group of other investors  I have $158.34 in out
> standing loans..
> This very minor amount of money I have made 43 loans of $25 each  all around
> the world.. including the US this is not a donation  it is a loan. have
> never had more fun playing banker with my $200. than I have had playing with

> anything I have bought.http://www.kiva.org/if you are interested I will

> ...
>
> read more »

[allan deheretic]

That is the one we are talking about..  need to end the cronyism..  I think the parties are good but not when they control the membership and how they vote...

Mike Mansfield  the old Montana Senator and Majority leader  had a policy as he told it to me ..  "If it is good for Montana it passes, if it is bad for Montana , it failed.. and if it did not effect Montana  it took its own course..

He represented Montana and not the democratic party to day it seems they only represent the political party and not the state they represent.  It is a real problem as corporations and the extremely rich people are buying votes..

Allan

[allan deheretic]

as an after thought  ,, Mike Mansfield ,,   I meet him over a flat tire  when I changed it,, we became friends ..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Mansfield

he has a political history that is interesting  and when you read it the last paragraph about his burial is of extreme interest..  the last part of wiki reads

Burial at Arlington

Ambassador Mansfield died from congestive heart failure at the age of 98 on October 5, 2001.^[8]

“

This gentleman went from snuffy to national and international prominence. And when he died in 2001, he was rightly buried in Arlington. If you want to visit his grave, don't look for him near the "Kennedy Eternal Flame", where so many politicians are laid to rest. Look for a small, common marker shared by the majority of our heroes. Look for the marker that says "Michael J. Mansfield, PVT. U.S. Marine Corps".

”

Remarks by Col. James Michael Lowe, USMC, October 20, 2004.^[9]

The burial plot of Senator and Mrs. Mansfield can be found in section 2, marker 49-69F of Arlington National Cemetery.

[edit]

[rigsy03]

I purposely chose the impression versus the record. It's how
poilticians get elected, isn't it?

I know you must have meant incidentally re Clinton/Oprah. :-) Yes-
that is a great organization- so is http;//www.heifer.org.

I have run the anti-Bush43 course on another forum in the past. But
there are strands that weave our policies that include other
administrations- an overlap.

No- I enjoyed your post- thanks.

On Aug 8, 12:36 pm, allan deheretic <dehere...@gmail.com> wrote:

> Sorry Rigsy,,  interesting you and many others talk about personality,,  it
> seems that never relates to actions or accomplishments..
>
> Indecently a few years back Bill Clinton was on Oprah promoting Kiva  ,,
>  Kiva is all about micro loans helping people..  I stuck around $200 into
> it.. lost some money on one loan.. but that is okay. there is $21.99 in my
> Kiva credit  before long it will reach $25.oo I will make another loan
> along with a group of other investors  I have $158.34 in out
> standing loans..
> This very minor amount of money I have made 43 loans of $25 each  all around
> the world.. including the US this is not a donation  it is a loan. have
> never had more fun playing banker with my $200. than I have had playing with

> anything I have bought.http://www.kiva.org/if you are interested I will

> ...
>
> read more »- Hide quoted text -

[allan deheretic]

I think Kiva is more fun and you get your money back so you can loan it again.

Allan

[rigsy03]

Or the livestock reproduce! :-)

> > > anything I have bought.http://www.kiva.org/ifyou are interested I will

> Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,- Hide quoted text -