Another Nail in the Cosmic Ray Coffin.
Roger Coppock
The phrase global warming is a shorthand for the recent
rise in the global mean land and sea surface temperature.
In order to prove that something is a cause of global
warming, one needs to show:
1) that one's proposed cause is real and has a recent
history of measurements thirty years or longer.
2) that the proposed cause has increased or decreased
recently.
3) that the correlation of the proposed cause and global
mean surface temperature have a large coefficient and be
significant.
--
Rule 1 lets Tinkerbell and her pixie dust off the hook.
Previous posts used rule 3 to show that sunspots and cosmic
rays are not a likely cause of the recent warming. The two
proposed causes had correlations of 10% and 5% respectively.
(I've placed the post on the cosmic ray correlation below.)
CO2, Keeling's curve, had a correlation of 75%.
Rule 2 was used to show that over the last 29 years direct,
not proxy, measurement of the Sun's output has shown no long
term growth large enough to explain the warming of the Earth.
The variance has one dominant component, an 11-year cycle.
Please see:
http://www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Changes_In_Solar_Brightness_Too_Weak_To_Explain_Global_Warming_999.html
These convincing demonstrations rely on the calculations of
others to show the total lack of long term increases in solar
radiation reaching Earth.
--
I would like to use cosmic rays as an example of rule 2
eliminating a proposed cause of global warming. I will do
the math, and not rely on the work of others.
Like solar irradiance, cosmic rays follow an 11-year cycle.
Please see the data, which is in red at:
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/Climax.jpg
These data come from a hundred element detector at Climax
Colorado and were archived at the World Data Center for
Cosmic Rays.
One can not merely use a linear regression to determine
whether the cosmic rays are gaining or losing strength.
Where in the 11=year cycle one starts and begins his
regression would determine the slope of the trend line.
There are many ways to handle this common problem. A
popular method is called "windowing." There are many
windowing formulas and techniques. The long term rate
of growth of the cosmic ray measurements could depend
on which 'window' one is 'looking' through. I do not
have the mathematical sophistication to justify the
selection of the right window, therefore I will not
use this technique. I will use simple curve fitting.
--
Assume that all of cosmic ray flux change is a linear
growth which we want to find the slope for and a sine
curve which represents the 11-year solar cycle. The
algebraic analog of that statement is that the measured
cosmic ray flux is equal to:
A_Constant + A_Slope * Time +
Another_Constant * SIN( A_PHASE + Time*2PI / A_Period )
Please see the results of that curve fit, which is in
green at: http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/Climax.jpg
There are many commonly available non-linear curve
fitting programs. The author used the "nls" function
in the "R" statistical program. For information on
"R" please see: http://www.r-project.org/index.html
Note the very small value for A_Slope, .043 +- .41.
It's zero for all practical purposes. The standard
error is a decimal order of magnitude larger than
the estimate and more than three orders of magnitude
less than the amplitude of the 11-year solar cycle.
Please see the graph and equation of the long term
growth trend line, which is in blue at:
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/Climax.jpg
--
Cosmic ray flux, has neither increased nor decreased
significantly in the more than five decades measured.
This, and the already reported .05 correlation which
I have copied below, make it highly unlikely that
cosmic rays and global mean land and sea surface
temperatures are in any way related.
-.-. --.- Roger Coppock
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
The Cosmic Ray Theory of Global Warming Fails A Basic Test!
Members of this newsgroup working for the Carbon fuel industry
keep looking for some another cause for global warming other
than waste CO2 from their master's products. Lately, they've
touted the theory that cosmic rays, not the CO2 from the
burning of coal, oil, and natural gas, are the cause of the
recent global warming.
For the cosmic-ray/global-warming link to be correct,
rising values of cosmic rays should bring rising temperatures
and falling cosmic rays fluxes should bring falling
temperatures. Correlation detects the reverse relationship
too. This is a necessary, but not a sufficient
condition for the link to be correct. A significant
correlation is not a proof of a causal link, but an
insignificant correlation is a certain disproof of a link.
A correlation is a statistical test on two variables that
produces a value called R. R is between -1 and 1, with
the negative numbers representing reverse relationships.
The square of R, a fraction between 0 and 1, indicates
how much the two variables follow each other's ups and downs.
A value of 0 indicates that the variables are unrelated,
while a 1 shows that they are so strongly related that
they may be the same variable.
Please see:
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Correlation.html
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/CorrelationCoefficient.html
Item 20 shows R squared for several graphed relationships.
The R squared value for a correlation between the cosmic
rays measured at Climax Colorado and the NASA GISS
global mean land and sea surface temperature is only 5%.
This low value virtually eliminates cosmic rays as a
cause of surface temperature change.
The equivalent R squared value for Mauna Loa CO2 is 75%,
which indicates that there may be a strong CO2 temperature
link. It does not establish the link, however. For firmer
establishment, one needs a mechanism, like the one
proposed by Fourier, Tyndall, and Arrhenius in the 19th
century.
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
The Cosmic ray data come from this directory:
http://www.env.sci.ibaraki.ac.jp/ftp/pub/WDCCR/STATIONS/climax/cardformat/
The card data format is explained here:
http://www.env.sci.ibaraki.ac.jp/ftp/pub/WDCCR/Read.me
Hourly data were converted into monthly means.
The NASA GISS monthly mean land and sea surface
temperature data are here:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
The December 2006 version was used.
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
Year Month CosRays AnnMean
1953 1 4129.95 10
1953 2 4156.06 18
1953 3 4144.46 16
1953 4 4150.14 19
1953 5 4152.47 8
1953 6 4175.26 5
1953 7 4159.51 5
1953 8 4167.63 10
1953 9 4172.84 10
1953 10 4194.07 10
1953 11 4189.03 1
1953 12 4214.99 16
1954 1 4225.47 -18
1954 2 4246.71 -4
1954 3 4285.40 -8
1954 4 4269.25 -10
1954 5 4279.96 -16
1954 6 4276.61 -13
1954 7 4284.05 -21
1954 8 4317.37 -17
1954 9 4308.23 -13
1954 10 4304.28 -3
1954 11 4286.22 12
1954 12 4268.76 -11
1955 1 4200.46 19
1955 2 4267.21 -13
1955 3 4272.40 -29
1955 4 4272.92 -16
1955 5 4287.15 -18
1955 6 4277.51 -12
1955 7 4278.71 -6
1955 8 4263.28 10
1955 9 4285.50 -7
1955 10 4245.06 1
1955 11 4251.59 -22
1955 12 4192.87 -28
1956 1 4233.75 -15
1956 2 4159.03 -24
1956 3 4097.10 -22
1956 4 4097.26 -21
1956 5 4048.55 -22
1956 6 4044.95 -13
1956 7 4087.51 -8
1956 8 4083.03 -25
1956 9 4044.21 -14
1956 10 4134.48 -20
1956 11 3980.06 -16
1956 12 3798.75 -7
1957 1 3677.03 -6
1957 2 3660.30 3
1957 3 3694.71 3
1957 4 3585.78 10
1957 5 3640.14 12
1957 6 3603.13 15
1957 7 3556.98 1
1957 8 3605.67 12
1957 9 3457.90 8
1957 10 3509.42 3
1957 11 3483.66 12
1957 12 3409.63 17
1958 1 3433.43 41
1958 2 3481.72 23
1958 3 3400.57 14
1958 4 3396.24 4
1958 5 3489.91 7
1958 6 3559.81 -8
1958 7 3466.63 8
1958 8 3536.72 -2
1958 9 3561.47 -3
1958 10 3564.34 5
1958 11 3588.93 5
1958 12 3542.28 4
1959 1 3573.44 11
1959 2 3525.71 12
1959 3 3606.12 22
1959 4 3663.83 15
1959 5 3567.40 10
1959 6 3633.31 7
1959 7 3367.19 7
1959 8 3419.34 1
1959 9 3484.08 -8
1959 10 3596.97 -3
1959 11 3614.79 -7
1959 12 3586.65 4
1960 1 3516.37 1
1960 2 3572.91 18
1960 3 3630.99 -32
1960 4 3532.23 -13
1960 5 3535.52 -6
1960 6 3588.83 -3
1960 7 3587.41 0
1960 8 3669.76 6
1960 9 3670.47 5
1960 10 3681.65 6
1960 11 3586.96 -10
1960 12 3681.22 20
1961 1 3762.21 5
1961 2 3800.69 21
1961 3 3818.68 10
1961 4 3800.47 11
1961 5 3843.05 22
1961 6 3837.81 13
1961 7 3670.66 1
1961 8 3784.08 3
1961 9 3833.60 8
1961 10 3869.89 7
1961 11 3955.27 5
1961 12 3950.17 -15
1962 1 3977.13 5
1962 2 3922.11 18
1962 3 3931.27 12
1962 4 3877.67 11
1962 5 3926.60 -10
1962 6 3940.55 7
1962 7 3950.71 -2
1962 8 3953.60 -5
1962 9 3923.71 2
1962 10 3919.41 1
1962 11 3963.29 8
1962 12 3971.27 0
1963 1 4048.80 1
1963 2 4073.42 19
1963 3 4064.70 -13
1963 4 4076.73 -7
1963 5 4034.13 -2
1963 6 4075.37 6
1963 7 4072.36 14
1963 8 4060.37 26
1963 9 4024.14 25
1963 10 4066.15 8
1963 11 4093.90 14
1963 12 4111.55 3
1964 1 4144.48 -5
1964 2 4139.27 -8
1964 3 4167.53 -27
1964 4 4181.04 -33
1964 5 4197.98 -28
1964 6 4208.11 -2
1964 7 4202.44 -5
1964 8 4212.79 -24
1964 9 4232.35 -37
1964 10 4240.24 -30
1964 11 4253.64 -19
1964 12 4307.12 -30
1965 1 4294.26 -10
1965 2 4289.78 -18
1965 3 4313.93 -10
1965 4 4334.76 -19
1965 5 4340.11 -6
1965 6 4288.39 -12
1965 7 4247.02 -20
1965 8 4246.31 -6
1965 9 4267.50 -16
1965 10 4270.53 -6
1965 11 4294.36 -7
1965 12 4300.27 -6
1966 1 4258.35 -17
1966 2 4261.50 -1
1966 3 4210.80 11
1966 4 4180.36 -12
1966 5 4207.06 -8
1966 6 4145.86 -2
1966 7 4107.75 11
1966 8 4112.27 -5
1966 9 3955.94 0
1966 10 4055.35 -15
1966 11 4090.82 0
1966 12 4052.58 -4
1967 1 3990.77 -7
1967 2 3959.54 -23
1967 3 4013.55 8
1967 4 4025.18 -2
1967 5 3973.51 11
1967 6 3960.11 -6
1967 7 3984.55 6
1967 8 3940.20 1
1967 9 3951.99 0
1967 10 3979.84 10
1967 11 3922.36 -2
1967 12 3932.64 -1
1968 1 3946.00 -22
1968 2 3924.65 -13
1968 3 3909.27 24
1968 4 3931.88 -4
1968 5 3894.57 -9
1968 6 3829.50 0
1968 7 3830.37 -7
1968 8 3852.85 -5
1968 9 3816.93 -14
1968 10 3760.87 13
1968 11 3652.11 -3
1968 12 3685.01 -13
1969 1 3801.43 -7
1969 2 3831.30 -8
1969 3 3797.71 -3
1969 4 3782.36 20
1969 5 3656.32 13
1969 6 3609.48 11
1969 7 3651.86 -4
1969 8 3730.47 0
1969 9 3781.23 9
1969 10 3802.75 14
1969 11 3797.70 16
1969 12 3806.99 30
1970 1 3790.29 10
1970 2 3824.50 23
1970 3 3781.42 9
1970 4 3765.28 4
1970 5 3764.99 -5
1970 6 3679.24 -2
1970 7 3684.18 -1
1970 8 3755.44 -12
1970 9 3832.25 14
1970 10 3861.94 3
1970 11 3785.99 4
1970 12 3895.40 -12
1971 1 3894.51 -2
1971 2 3975.17 -20
1971 3 3981.30 -21
1971 4 4002.61 -10
1971 5 4032.05 -11
1971 6 4124.57 -21
1971 7 4124.25 -11
1971 8 4151.62 -2
1971 9 4156.12 -2
1971 10 4200.11 -4
1971 11 4183.38 -7
1971 12 4192.07 -10
1972 1 4162.26 -26
1972 2 4157.37 -20
1972 3 4207.27 -2
1972 4 4237.42 0
1972 5 4214.64 -2
1972 6 4141.03 6
1972 7 4206.69 0
1972 8 4005.24 20
1972 9 4197.71 5
1972 10 4214.35 4
1972 11 4197.94 -2
1972 12 4198.31 18
1973 1 4200.48 26
1973 2 4192.97 28
1973 3 4173.18 25
1973 4 4074.77 24
1973 5 3996.97 22
1973 6 4118.80 16
1973 7 4150.47 10
1973 8 4180.41 1
1973 9 4234.63 6
1973 10 4239.53 13
1973 11 4254.58 4
1973 12 4252.62 -8
1974 1 4261.43 -14
1974 2 4283.37 -27
1974 3 4237.48 -5
1974 4 4206.89 -12
1974 5 4120.80 -4
1974 6 4077.44 -5
1974 7 4009.27 -1
1974 8 4083.21 10
1974 9 4053.53 -9
1974 10 4077.95 -7
1974 11 4058.43 -10
1974 12 4132.74 -11
1975 1 4156.72 1
1975 2 4205.96 1
1975 3 4209.66 11
1975 4 4239.43 -3
1975 5 4244.46 18
1975 6 4271.45 -3
1975 7 4261.56 -5
1975 8 4230.31 -21
1975 9 4243.40 -7
1975 10 4230.91 -10
1975 11 4217.94 -16
1975 12 4213.72 -21
1976 1 4215.76 -8
1976 2 4222.57 -11
1976 3 4235.66 -27
1976 4 4188.36 -16
1976 5 4217.91 -29
1976 6 4244.29 -14
1976 7 4253.81 -13
1976 8 4251.81 -19
1976 9 4283.29 -11
1976 10 4287.44 -30
1976 11 4285.34 -11
1976 12 4279.61 0
1977 1 4268.38 10
1977 2 4271.65 15
1977 3 4274.45 15
1977 4 4267.23 19
1977 5 4271.73 29
1977 6 4232.61 23
1977 7 4174.59 20
1977 8 4193.85 17
1977 9 4197.66 -5
1977 10 4245.14 -5
1977 11 4284.19 13
1977 12 4260.17 1
1978 1 4212.89 3
1978 2 4197.94 8
1978 3 4172.77 12
1978 4 4107.10 9
1978 5 3976.47 1
1978 6 4058.27 -8
1978 7 4068.43 4
1978 8 4182.65 -21
1978 9 4179.65 5
1978 10 4084.56 -3
1978 11 4136.50 7
1978 12 4127.96 0
1979 1 4071.91 6
1979 2 4034.43 -18
1979 3 3983.45 9
1979 4 3887.64 10
1979 5 3920.72 -6
1979 6 3814.48 4
1979 7 3806.17 -7
1979 8 3710.22 9
1979 9 3745.12 19
1979 10 3828.51 18
1979 11 3828.65 19
1979 12 3904.89 39
1980 1 3873.52 21
1980 2 3842.20 28
1980 3 3899.60 22
1980 4 3819.47 22
1980 5 3816.91 27
1980 6 3696.79 10
1980 7 3691.96 18
1980 8 3718.63 13
1980 9 3724.18 13
1980 10 3646.98 8
1980 11 3564.03 23
1980 12 3564.35 10
1981 1 3702.91 47
1981 2 3623.06 37
1981 3 3615.90 43
1981 4 3561.34 24
1981 5 3567.37 15
1981 6 3643.28 20
1981 7 3660.97 31
1981 8 3661.72 35
1981 9 3731.84 12
1981 10 3613.38 7
1981 11 3624.36 18
1981 12 3726.45 29
1982 1 3780.44 1
1982 2 3633.44 8
1982 3 3777.80 -11
1982 4 3818.70 2
1982 5 3860.17 15
1982 6 3650.11 1
1982 7 3462.75 14
1982 8 3456.23 -6
1982 9 3364.31 1
1982 10 3444.08 3
1982 11 3482.39 4
1982 12 3413.14 35
1983 1 3550.28 44
1983 2 3643.49 37
1983 3 3744.05 37
1983 4 3753.31 26
1983 5 3613.34 30
1983 6 3700.20 18
1983 7 3789.67 13
1983 8 3800.39 30
1983 9 3845.22 35
1983 10 3860.05 10
1983 11 3896.88 23
1983 12 3880.65 11
1984 1 3915.45 23
1984 2 3896.39 6
1984 3 3829.62 21
1984 4 3805.83 1
1984 5 3677.13 30
1984 6 3772.84 -5
1984 7 3813.16 14
1984 8 3864.46 13
1984 9 3890.82 18
1984 10 3897.26 4
1984 11 3870.70 -5
1984 12 3889.01 -15
1985 1 3919.16 15
1985 2 3985.15 -12
1985 3 4001.99 12
1985 4 3995.22 6
1985 5 4025.37 6
1985 6 4087.82 12
1985 7 4066.16 -3
1985 8 4074.57 13
1985 9 4139.23 8
1985 10 4139.43 5
1985 11 4173.63 -2
1985 12 4141.20 8
1986 1 4128.62 20
1986 2 4036.53 38
1986 3 4098.12 25
1986 4 4198.27 18
1986 5 4231.32 12
1986 6 4242.20 6
1986 7 4242.82 6
1986 8 4243.98 12
1986 9 4277.42 2
1986 10 4280.24 6
1986 11 4222.10 1
1986 12 4277.18 6
1987 1 4331.05 25
1987 2 4376.05 37
1987 3 4377.47 16
1987 4 4346.29 21
1987 5 4322.77 18
1987 6 4254.56 30
1987 7 4215.37 38
1987 8 4169.25 15
1987 9 4122.81 29
1987 10 4138.84 26
1987 11 4079.80 23
1987 12 4083.69 43
1988 1 3970.19 51
1988 2 3996.50 35
1988 3 4023.54 47
1988 4 3995.43 35
1988 5 4005.13 37
1988 6 3981.46 39
1988 7 3906.05 26
1988 8 3898.86 28
1988 9 3923.04 30
1988 10 3890.65 28
1988 11 3886.15 -2
1988 12 3797.81 18
1989 1 3730.75 3
1989 2 3717.19 29
1989 3 3500.24 26
1989 4 3527.30 15
1989 5 3446.38 3
1989 6 3478.39 7
1989 7 3594.33 29
1989 8 3535.46 28
1989 9 3468.11 32
1989 10 3344.18 26
1989 11 3291.02 8
1989 12 3349.09 27
1990 1 3432.22 32
1990 2 3475.92 29
1990 3 3424.11 67
1990 4 3317.50 48
1990 5 3274.85 37
1990 6 3283.41 31
1990 7 3406.35 48
1990 8 3376.92 27
1990 9 3450.49 17
1990 10 3539.64 40
1990 11 3607.94 41
1990 12 3621.76 36
1991 1 3718.84 35
1991 2 3724.88 45
1991 3 3450.59 29
1991 4 3482.55 44
1991 5 3495.97 30
1991 6 3041.25 49
1991 7 3062.36 49
1991 8 3292.86 38
1991 9 3481.99 39
1991 10 3581.44 21
1991 11 3569.79 19
1991 12 3628.45 24
1992 1 3638.62 39
1992 2 3599.76 35
1992 3 3683.77 35
1992 4 3803.25 15
1992 5 3775.53 19
1992 6 3875.79 16
1992 7 3939.31 0
1992 8 3939.18 2
1992 9 3918.25 -10
1992 10 3988.84 -4
1992 11 3966.21 -9
1992 12 4035.81 12
1993 1 4006.59 28
1993 2 4007.23 28
1993 3 3923.92 29
1993 4 4002.58 16
1993 5 4027.37 18
1993 6 4060.53 10
1993 7 4074.61 11
1993 8 4075.99 4
1993 9 4111.41 0
1993 10 4122.34 15
1993 11 4138.60 2
1993 12 4122.79 6
1994 1 4130.14 24
1994 2 4078.82 -5
1994 3 4057.61 21
1994 4 4047.64 27
1994 5 4075.95 17
1994 6 4085.59 35
1994 7 4117.21 21
1994 8 4139.78 17
1994 9 4172.98 30
1994 10 4178.80 37
1994 11 4187.10 33
1994 12 4168.26 25
1995 1 4191.42 43
1995 2 4193.50 71
1995 3 4180.19 44
1995 4 4198.68 39
1995 5 4207.64 9
1995 6 4193.25 35
1995 7 4196.36 50
1995 8 4209.10 37
1995 9 4234.72 23
1995 10 4240.03 45
1995 11 4227.22 37
1995 12 4246.41 25
1996 1 4248.61 26
1996 2 4266.61 48
1996 3 4275.96 33
1996 4 4269.80 25
1996 5 4251.70 19
1996 6 4250.28 18
1996 7 4253.89 38
1996 8 4256.34 43
1996 9 4263.74 26
1996 10 4243.80 17
1996 11 4231.44 36
1996 12 4241.68 32
1997 1 4271.91 27
1997 2 4292.26 29
1997 3 4277.32 47
1997 4 4273.58 34
1997 5 4269.10 32
1997 6 4281.23 50
1997 7 4268.06 26
1997 8 4289.91 36
1997 9 4277.87 40
1997 10 4261.14 49
1997 11 4254.82 56
1997 12 4263.88 53
1998 1 4270.21 52
1998 2 4286.83 79
1998 3 4291.04 56
1998 4 4159.54 56
1998 5 4086.88 61
1998 6 4115.78 68
1998 7 4141.90 71
1998 8 4086.37 62
1998 9 4147.18 42
1998 10 4212.09 40
1998 11 4174.30 43
1998 12 4132.76 51
1999 1 4055.86 40
1999 2 4039.48 60
1999 3 4057.65 27
1999 4 4083.37 27
1999 5 4050.16 21
1999 6 4105.98 36
1999 7 4133.36 30
1999 8 4031.11 28
1999 9 3955.70 26
1999 10 3899.84 31
1999 11 3870.19 32
1999 12 3839.82 33
2000 1 3855.57 17
2000 2 3821.37 51
2000 3 3747.95 46
2000 4 3752.01 53
2000 5 3656.52 29
2000 6 3582.66 36
2000 7 3484.05 33
2000 8 3561.49 38
2000 9 3616.99 32
2000 10 3724.64 20
2000 11 3614.99 26
2000 12 3650.25 21
2001 1 3713.23 38
2001 2 3801.75 41
2001 3 3869.46 54
2001 4 3621.99 39
2001 5 3733.98 52
2001 6 3778.61 47
2001 7 3792.88 51
2001 8 3713.02 46
2001 9 3713.17 49
2001 10 3674.99 44
2001 11 3761.30 67
2001 12 3787.63 51
2002 1 3669.56 71
2002 2 3789.31 70
2002 3 3744.84 83
2002 4 3733.31 59
2002 5 3738.74 57
2002 6 3770.91 47
2002 7 3701.84 57
2002 8 3609.73 45
2002 9 3682.54 49
2002 10 3734.88 50
2002 11 3659.03 52
2002 12 3687.98 37
2003 1 3714.09 65
2003 2 3727.40 51
2003 3 3736.01 51
2003 4 3685.40 49
2003 5 3664.32 51
2003 6 3580.34 39
2003 7 3664.67 48
2003 8 3706.27 63
2003 9 3756.18 60
2003 10 3685.29 66
2003 11 3441.54 50
2003 12 3725.29 69
2004 1 3707.65 53
2004 2 3835.72 67
2004 3 3892.60 59
2004 4 3944.59 52
2004 5 3988.72 37
2004 6 3962.95 33
2004 7 3914.83 22
2004 8 3937.00 44
2004 9 3981.46 47
2004 10 4090.94 59
2004 11 3976.91 64
2004 12 4020.03 51
2005 1 3813.56 69
2005 2 3963.34 56
2005 3 3992.75 71
2005 4 4019.51 65
2005 5 3919.22 55
2005 6 4010.44 60
2005 7 3972.66 55
2005 8 3948.57 57
2005 9 3842.22 69
2005 10 4043.83 72
2005 11 4094.07 64
2005 12 4096.35 59
2006 1 4112.43 44
2006 2 4177.21 58
2006 3 4215.11 56
2006 4 4221.39 47
2006 5 4220.93 43
2006 6 4236.05 53
2006 7 4186.80 44