OA False Alarm: CO2 is just "neutralizing" the ocean
Rau, Greg
http://boss.hawaiireporter.com/ocean-acidification-is-a-misnomer/
Ocean Acidification is a Misnomer
BY JACK DINI–A good way to excite people is to tell them that something is becoming more ‘acid,’ as ‘the oceans are undergoing acidification and this is a potential environmental catastrophe.’
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the leading proponent of the doom of global warming, states that the mean pH of surface waters ranges between 7.9 and 8.3 in the open oceans, so the oceans remain alkaline. It is dishonest to present to a lay audience that any perceived reduction in alkalinity means the oceans are turning to acid. (1) Since the pH of the oceans is higher than neutral (pH = 7), this means the oceans are alkaline. The pH scale ranges from 0 to 14; pH 6 is ten times more acid than pH 7 and pH 5 is a hundred times more acid than pH 7. (2)
Unfortunately, as Scientific American points out, ‘acidification’ means a drop in value, anywhere along the scale. (3) So the term ‘ocean acidification’ is misleading. The oceans are not acidifying. They are undergoing a process known as neutralization, but the term ‘acidification’ sounds scarier than talking about the oceans becoming slightly less basic or a little more neutral.
At least one university is equating seawater with vinegar in an on-line presentation for schools. Vinegar (acetic acid) has a pH of 2.5, almost a million times more acidic in terms of hydrogen ion activity than seawater. This is deliberate disinformation to present to young people. (1)
What about pH variation?
The Economist talks about pH measurements in Hawaii; “The pH difference from one year to the next is frequently greater than the change in average pH levels over 20 years. All of this suggests that the effects will be far from uniform.” (4)
Chris Jury, Center for Marine Science, Biology and Marine Biology, University of North Carolina, reports, “On some reef flats pH values have been measured to vary from as low as 7.8 to as high as 8.4 in a single 24 hour period. In some lagoons, pH has been measured to vary as much as 1 pH unit in a day (e.g., 7.6 to 8.6). (5)
USF researchers raised a warning flag upon finding that upper-ocean pH had, over the preceding one-and-a-half decades, decreased by approximately 0.026 units, equivalent to an average annual pH change of -0.0017, over a large section of the northeastern Pacific. “The pH decrease is direct evidence for ocean acidification,” said Richard Feely. “These dramatic changes can be attributed, in most part, to anthropogenic CO2 uptake by the ocean over a 15 year period.” (1) Pretty hefty words for a pH change of 0.0017 per year. Have you ever tried to measure pH? How do you get a value as low as 0.0017?
What about the effects on corals and various species?
“Experiments with seawater are flawed because they are done in laboratories removed from the ocean floor rocks, sedimentation from continents and flow of river waters into the oceans. It is these real processes that have kept the oceans alkaline for billions of years. Laboratory experiments have to provide results in a short time to be reported in scientific journals. Processes over geological time cannot be that easily replicated. Computer simulations that ignore observations and natural processes that have taken place over billions of years end up with a result unrelated to reality. Reality is written in rocks, not models based on incomplete information,” notes Ian Plimer. (6)
Proof of this statement can be found in a recent Scientific American article by Marah Hardt and Carl Safina, “If small pH changes occurred gradually over tens of thousands of years, a species might evolve adaptations, for example, by retaining chance genetic mutations that result in greater production of buffer molecules. But species generally cannot adapt to changes occurring over mere hundreds of years or less. Similar changes produced in the lab over days to weeks are lethal.” (3) There it is; short time experiments are lethal. Lab experiments persist for weeks to months. Climate change occurs over decades and centuries. We have no way of predicting how species will adapt over long periods of time.
There are many contrary peer reviewed papers challenging the claims about the impact of CO2 on the oceans. One survey highlights some one hundred and fifty such papers, most of them showing that we cannot possibly acidify the oceans. (1)
Iris Hendriks of the Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies recently analyzed data from a wide sample of research into how individual organisms respond to increased carbon dioxide in their seawater. She found that the range of responses was wide, with some seeming to prefer the lowered pH. She also found that the effects to be expected in the 21st century were, on average, comparatively modest. (4)
Recent research published by Elisabetta Erba in Science says corals are not threatened by lower pH. The study contradicts the assumption that ocean acidification leads to species die-offs, surprising scientists. (7)
Hugo Loaiciga and colleagues report in Geophysical Research Letters that a doubling of CO2 from 380 ppm to 760 ppm would increase the seawater acidity approximately 0.19 units (e.g., from a pH of 8.2 to 8.0). This paper’s result concerning average seawater salinity and acidity shows that on a global scale and over the time scale of hundreds of years, there would not be accentuated changes in either seawater salinity or acidity. (8)
What To Do?
Here’s the suggestion from Hardt and Safina, “The EPA should move forward with including CO2 as a pollutant under the Clean Water Act, giving states the authority to enforce CO2 emissions limits. Establishing marine protected areas would allow species to recover from overexploitation; higher numbers would give their populations and gene pools more resilience in responding to climate changes.” (3) Sounds great, but what about the 80% of the world’s people who want to catch up to us. We can’t make any durable dent in global emissions because emissions from the developing world are growing too fast. Any proposed CO2 controls would increase production costs while giving a ‘free pass’ to underdeveloped countries. Guess were the most energy intensive industries will relocate? To the lowest cost producers who will not have to worry about controlling emissions.
The bottom line on pH measurement is that to pretend there is an accurate long-term record of pH over the oceans—or that a single reading from Hawaii or anywhere else is typical of all oceans—is nonsense. The simple answer is we don’t know. But what we do know is that in the past, creatures in the ocean have survived and thrived under conditions that were less alkaline than those existing right now. (4)
References
1. Dennis Ambler, “Acid Seas- Back to Basic,”, SPPI Original Paper, February 11, 2010
2. Ian Plimer, Heaven and Earth, (New York, Taylor Trade Publishing, 2009), 331
3. Marah J. Hardt and Carl Safina, “Threatening Ocean Life From the Inside Out,” Scientific American, 303, 66, August 2010
4. “The other carbon-dioxide problem,” The Economist, July 1, 2010
5. Chris Jury, “Aquarium Chemistry: The Carbonate System in the Aquarium, and the Ocean, Part I: The Components of the Carbonate System,” http://www.advancedaquarist.com/2008/12/chemistry/view?searchterm=.
6. Ian Plimer, Heaven and Earth, 338
7. Elisabetta Erba, et al., “Calcareous Nannoplankton Response to Surface-Water Acidification Around Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a,” Science, 329, 428, July 23, 2010
8. Hugo A Loaiciga, et al., “Modern-age buildup of CO2 and its effect on seawater acidity and salinity,” Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L10605, i:10.1029/2006GL026305
Jack Dini is a resident of Livermore, CA
Emily
yes, the 'acidification' of the ocean means that it has more acid in it
that it used to have, (carbonic acid from CO2 dissolving into the
water). And that is a serious condition, but treatable. We know how to
stop making it worse, and we could possibly help restore the ocean to
near full health. We could also, possibly restore the climate, just as
we can restore some degraded habitats through good environmental
practice and remediation.
i think in terms of geo engineering particularly, use of language is
really important too. I understand the confusion with the phrase 'ocean
acidification', I have found messaging to the public about this really
hard to explain too. The co2 in sea water creates carbonic acid, which
leads to an increase Hydrogen ions (30% increase to date) which causes a
decrease in pH, but make the ocean nearer to the acid end of the
spectrum but not acidic. This is critical to sea life and the way the
oceans regulate our climate. I attach a graph with long term data on
this. The current change is rapid and large, with potentially huge impacts.
The reason I raise this with the group is that I think it has really
important implications for messaging on geo-engineering. In public, i
avoid the term geo-engineering and I call it 'pro-active mitigation'
like an oil spill clean up operation. If we could see co2 we wouldn't
just reduce the release of the pollution, we would start a clean up
operation fast, we'd try to contain the pollution and undertake standard
environmental rehabilitation measures, like we do with an oil coal mine
slag heap, or other polluted area. It is standard practice with many
large projects which cause damage to the environment or people, that the
impact will be :
1) identified,
2) minimised
3) monitored
4) restored after wards
5) compensation provided as is fit.
this approach could be taken with the climate, which is where
geo-engineering techniques can contribute. There is such a mix of
techniques which can be considered to fall into the large and diverse
umbrella of geo-engineering, but the term geo-engineering has a very bad
press and is assumed will only include big, scary, large scale
interventions with the climate and also that this is something that we
don't do in other areas of environmental management. Whereas in reality,
large scale intervention is standard practice in many fields of
environmental management and also regular business activities.
So, an example is iron fertilisation. Whether is it a useful or
successful technique aside, it is in principle no different from sewage
dumping which goes on around the world into every ocean. both are mass
inputs of nutrients. The difference is that sewage is put into coastal
waters which are much more sensitive to nutrification than the open sea
is likely to be. Another analogy is that Fe dumping in the sea is the
opposite but very similar to fishing. Fishing is a mass extraction of
nutrients from the ocean.
I think messaging around climate issues, and most especially on
geo-engineering is vital to ensure that we don't fall into the usual pit
falls of:
1) using scary messaging to try to trigger action - this usually back
fires (I have fallen into this one myself)
2) using extreme examples and projections which turn out to be false (I
have fallen into this one myself)
3) using language which may have one meaning in the science or other
technical language but a different meaning in common use (I expect I
have done this too - but it is harder to notice about oneself)
4) using umbrella phrases which catch a mixture of meanings and are not
specific enough.
It may be possible to be more specific about geo-engineering to
distinguish more clearly
1) what each technique is, what it's impacts, limitations, potential
costs and benefits are
2) put them into context of what is predicted to happen if we continue
without them (without going down the scary route)
3) put them into context of other environmental management techniques or
business practices which have incidental impacts, which we undertake
globally and daily without a second thought.
I'd be really happy to have a side conversation about communicating
geo-engineering with anyone who might be interested.
The way I now realise that it might be possible to explain the term
'acidification' is that it is like saying that the Arctic is warming,
while it is still largely frozen. Yes much of the Arctic is still
utterly freezing, yet it is still warming. (warming rather than warm).
The ocean is the same, yes it is still on the alkaline side of neutral
but it is still acidifiying (but not acid) and this has huge
implications both for marine life, people who eat fish and for the
climate itself. It has more acid in it that it used to have.
sorry it was a long one. Hope it was of use to some.
best wishes,
Emily.
On 20/08/2010 18:54, Rau, Greg wrote:
> What�s next � Acidgate? -Greg
>
> http://boss.hawaiireporter.com/ocean-acidification-is-a-misnomer/
> Ocean Acidification is a Misnomer
> B*/Y JACK DINI�/*A good way to excite people is to tell them that
> something is becoming more �acid,� as �the oceans are undergoing
> acidification and this is a potential environmental catastrophe.�
> The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the leading
> proponent of the doom of global warming, states that the mean pH of
> surface waters ranges between 7.9 and 8.3 in the open oceans, so the
> oceans remain alkaline. It is dishonest to present to a lay audience
> that any perceived reduction in alkalinity means the oceans are
> turning to acid. (1) Since the pH of the oceans is higher than neutral
> (pH = 7), this means the oceans are alkaline. The pH scale ranges from
> 0 to 14; pH 6 is ten times more acid than pH 7 and pH 5 is a hundred
> times more acid than pH 7. (2)
> Unfortunately, as Scientific American points out, �acidification�
> means a drop in value, anywhere along the scale. (3) So the term
> �ocean acidification� is misleading. The oceans are not acidifying.
> They are undergoing a process known as neutralization, but the term
> �acidification� sounds scarier than talking about the oceans becoming
> slightly less basic or a little more neutral.
> At least one university is equating seawater with vinegar in an
> on-line presentation for schools. Vinegar (acetic acid) has a pH of
> 2.5, almost a million times more acidic in terms of hydrogen ion
> activity than seawater. This is deliberate disinformation to present
> to young people. (1)
> What about pH variation?
> The Economist talks about pH measurements in Hawaii; �The pH
> difference from one year to the next is frequently greater than the
> change in average pH levels over 20 years. All of this suggests that
> the effects will be far from uniform.� (4)
> Chris Jury, Center for Marine Science, Biology and Marine Biology,
> University of North Carolina, reports, �On some reef flats pH values
> have been measured to vary from as low as 7.8 to as high as 8.4 in a
> single 24 hour period. In some lagoons, pH has been measured to vary
> as much as 1 pH unit in a day (e.g., 7.6 to 8.6). (5)
> USF researchers raised a warning flag upon finding that upper-ocean pH
> had, over the preceding one-and-a-half decades, decreased by
> approximately 0.026 units, equivalent to an average annual pH change
> of -0.0017, over a large section of the northeastern Pacific. �The pH
> decrease is direct evidence for ocean acidification,� said Richard
> Feely. �These dramatic changes can be attributed, in most part, to
> anthropogenic CO2 uptake by the ocean over a 15 year period.� (1)
> Pretty hefty words for a pH change of 0.0017 per year. Have you ever
> tried to measure pH? How do you get a value as low as 0.0017?
> What about the effects on corals and various species?
> �Experiments with seawater are flawed because they are done in
> laboratories removed from the ocean floor rocks, sedimentation from
> continents and flow of river waters into the oceans. It is these real
> processes that have kept the oceans alkaline for billions of years.
> Laboratory experiments have to provide results in a short time to be
> reported in scientific journals. Processes over geological time cannot
> be that easily replicated. Computer simulations that ignore
> observations and natural processes that have taken place over billions
> of years end up with a result unrelated to reality. Reality is written
> in rocks, not models based on incomplete information,� notes Ian
> Plimer. (6)
> Proof of this statement can be found in a recent Scientific American
> article by Marah Hardt and Carl Safina, �If small pH changes occurred
> gradually over tens of thousands of years, a species might evolve
> adaptations, for example, by retaining chance genetic mutations that
> result in greater production of buffer molecules. But species
> generally cannot adapt to changes occurring over mere hundreds of
> years or less. Similar changes produced in the lab over days to weeks
> are lethal.� (3) There it is; short time experiments are lethal. Lab
> experiments persist for weeks to months. Climate change occurs over
> decades and centuries. We have no way of predicting how species will
> adapt over long periods of time.
> There are many contrary peer reviewed papers challenging the claims
> about the impact of CO2 on the oceans. One survey highlights some one
> hundred and fifty such papers, most of them showing that we cannot
> possibly acidify the oceans. (1)
> Iris Hendriks of the Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies
> recently analyzed data from a wide sample of research into how
> individual organisms respond to increased carbon dioxide in their
> seawater. She found that the range of responses was wide, with some
> seeming to prefer the lowered pH. She also found that the effects to
> be expected in the 21st century were, on average, comparatively
> modest. (4)
> Recent research published by Elisabetta Erba in Science says corals
> are not threatened by lower pH. The study contradicts the assumption
> that ocean acidification leads to species die-offs, surprising
> scientists. (7)
> Hugo Loaiciga and colleagues report in Geophysical Research Letters
> that a doubling of CO2 from 380 ppm to 760 ppm would increase the
> seawater acidity approximately 0.19 units (e.g., from a pH of 8.2 to
> 8.0). This paper�s result concerning average seawater salinity and
> acidity shows that on a global scale and over the time scale of
> hundreds of years, there would not be accentuated changes in either
> seawater salinity or acidity. (8)
> What To Do?
> Here�s the suggestion from Hardt and Safina, �The EPA should move
> forward with including CO2 as a pollutant under the Clean Water Act,
> giving states the authority to enforce CO2 emissions limits.
> Establishing marine protected areas would allow species to recover
> from overexploitation; higher numbers would give their populations and
> gene pools more resilience in responding to climate changes.� (3)
> Sounds great, but what about the 80% of the world�s people who want to
> catch up to us. We can�t make any durable dent in global emissions
> because emissions from the developing world are growing too fast. Any
> proposed CO2 controls would increase production costs while giving a
> �free pass� to underdeveloped countries. Guess were the most energy
> intensive industries will relocate? To the lowest cost producers who
> will not have to worry about controlling emissions.
> The bottom line on pH measurement is that to pretend there is an
> accurate long-term record of pH over the oceans�or that a single
> reading from Hawaii or anywhere else is typical of all oceans�is
> nonsense. The simple answer is we don�t know. But what we do know is
> that in the past, creatures in the ocean have survived and thrived
> under conditions that were less alkaline than those existing right
> now. (4)
> References
> 1. Dennis Ambler, �Acid Seas- Back to Basic,�, SPPI Original Paper,
> February 11, 2010
> 2. Ian Plimer, Heaven and Earth, (New York, Taylor Trade Publishing,
> 2009), 331
> 3. Marah J. Hardt and Carl Safina, �Threatening Ocean Life From the
> Inside Out,� Scientific American, 303, 66, August 2010
> 4. �The other carbon-dioxide problem,� The Economist, July 1, 2010
> 5. Chris Jury, �Aquarium Chemistry: The Carbonate System in the
> Aquarium, and the Ocean, Part I: The Components of the Carbonate
> System,�
> http://www.advancedaquarist.com/2008/12/chemistry/view?searchterm=.
> 6. Ian Plimer, Heaven and Earth, 338
> 7. Elisabetta Erba, et al., �Calcareous Nannoplankton Response to
> Surface-Water Acidification Around Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a,� Science,
> 329, 428, July 23, 2010
> 8. Hugo A Loaiciga, et al., �Modern-age buildup of CO2 and its effect
> on seawater acidity and salinity,� Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L10605,
> i:10.1029/2006GL026305
> J/ack Dini is a resident of Livermore, CA/ --
> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google
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John Gorman
Burns sent it just for interest -not to support it.
The trouble is such rubbish is believed by those who don't know the facts.Noone can be an expert in everything and this subject is important to everyone. Most people just have to trust the experts in a field.
In a similar vein, the following appeared in the UK mag The WEEK of 21st aug
from Remnin Ribao (magazine?) in Beijing
"our western critics hubbub endlessly about China becoming the biggest greenhouse gas emitter, yet we are doing more about global warming than they are, and are on course to reduce carbon emissions by almost half of 2005 levels by 2020- far more than any other country"
> something is becoming more ‘acid,’ as ‘the oceans are undergoing
> acidification and this is a potential environmental catastrophe.’
> The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the leading
> proponent of the doom of global warming, states that the mean pH of
> surface waters ranges between 7.9 and 8.3 in the open oceans, so the
> oceans remain alkaline. It is dishonest to present to a lay audience
> that any perceived reduction in alkalinity means the oceans are
> turning to acid. (1) Since the pH of the oceans is higher than neutral
> (pH = 7), this means the oceans are alkaline. The pH scale ranges from
> 0 to 14; pH 6 is ten times more acid than pH 7 and pH 5 is a hundred
> times more acid than pH 7. (2)
> means a drop in value, anywhere along the scale. (3) So the term
> They are undergoing a process known as neutralization, but the term
> slightly less basic or a little more neutral.
> At least one university is equating seawater with vinegar in an
> on-line presentation for schools. Vinegar (acetic acid) has a pH of
> 2.5, almost a million times more acidic in terms of hydrogen ion
> activity than seawater. This is deliberate disinformation to present
> to young people. (1)
> What about pH variation?
> difference from one year to the next is frequently greater than the
> change in average pH levels over 20 years. All of this suggests that
> Chris Jury, Center for Marine Science, Biology and Marine Biology,
> have been measured to vary from as low as 7.8 to as high as 8.4 in a
> single 24 hour period. In some lagoons, pH has been measured to vary
> as much as 1 pH unit in a day (e.g., 7.6 to 8.6). (5)
> USF researchers raised a warning flag upon finding that upper-ocean pH
> had, over the preceding one-and-a-half decades, decreased by
> approximately 0.026 units, equivalent to an average annual pH change
> decrease is direct evidence for ocean acidification,” said Richard
> Feely. “These dramatic changes can be attributed, in most part, to
> anthropogenic CO2 uptake by the ocean over a 15 year period.” (1)
> Pretty hefty words for a pH change of 0.0017 per year. Have you ever
> tried to measure pH? How do you get a value as low as 0.0017?
> What about the effects on corals and various species?
> laboratories removed from the ocean floor rocks, sedimentation from
> continents and flow of river waters into the oceans. It is these real
> processes that have kept the oceans alkaline for billions of years.
> Laboratory experiments have to provide results in a short time to be
> reported in scientific journals. Processes over geological time cannot
> be that easily replicated. Computer simulations that ignore
> observations and natural processes that have taken place over billions
> of years end up with a result unrelated to reality. Reality is written
> Plimer. (6)
> Proof of this statement can be found in a recent Scientific American
> gradually over tens of thousands of years, a species might evolve
> adaptations, for example, by retaining chance genetic mutations that
> result in greater production of buffer molecules. But species
> generally cannot adapt to changes occurring over mere hundreds of
> years or less. Similar changes produced in the lab over days to weeks
> experiments persist for weeks to months. Climate change occurs over
> decades and centuries. We have no way of predicting how species will
> adapt over long periods of time.
> There are many contrary peer reviewed papers challenging the claims
> about the impact of CO2 on the oceans. One survey highlights some one
> hundred and fifty such papers, most of them showing that we cannot
> possibly acidify the oceans. (1)
> Iris Hendriks of the Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies
> recently analyzed data from a wide sample of research into how
> individual organisms respond to increased carbon dioxide in their
> seawater. She found that the range of responses was wide, with some
> seeming to prefer the lowered pH. She also found that the effects to
> be expected in the 21st century were, on average, comparatively
> modest. (4)
> Recent research published by Elisabetta Erba in Science says corals
> are not threatened by lower pH. The study contradicts the assumption
> that ocean acidification leads to species die-offs, surprising
> scientists. (7)
> Hugo Loaiciga and colleagues report in Geophysical Research Letters
> that a doubling of CO2 from 380 ppm to 760 ppm would increase the
> seawater acidity approximately 0.19 units (e.g., from a pH of 8.2 to
> acidity shows that on a global scale and over the time scale of
> hundreds of years, there would not be accentuated changes in either
> seawater salinity or acidity. (8)
> What To Do?
> forward with including CO2 as a pollutant under the Clean Water Act,
> giving states the authority to enforce CO2 emissions limits.
> Establishing marine protected areas would allow species to recover
> from overexploitation; higher numbers would give their populations and
> Sounds great, but what about the 80% of the world’s people who want to
> catch up to us. We can’t make any durable dent in global emissions
> because emissions from the developing world are growing too fast. Any
> proposed CO2 controls would increase production costs while giving a
> intensive industries will relocate? To the lowest cost producers who
> will not have to worry about controlling emissions.
> The bottom line on pH measurement is that to pretend there is an
> reading from Hawaii or anywhere else is typical of all oceans—is
> nonsense. The simple answer is we don’t know. But what we do know is
> that in the past, creatures in the ocean have survived and thrived
> under conditions that were less alkaline than those existing right
> now. (4)
> References
> February 11, 2010
> 2. Ian Plimer, Heaven and Earth, (New York, Taylor Trade Publishing,
> 2009), 331
> Inside Out,” Scientific American, 303, 66, August 2010
> 4. “The other carbon-dioxide problem,” The Economist, July 1, 2010
> 5. Chris Jury, “Aquarium Chemistry: The Carbonate System in the
> Aquarium, and the Ocean, Part I: The Components of the Carbonate
> 6. Ian Plimer, Heaven and Earth, 338
> Surface-Water Acidification Around Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a,” Science,
> 329, 428, July 23, 2010
> on seawater acidity and salinity,” Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L10605,
> i:10.1029/2006GL026305
> J/ack Dini is a resident of Livermore, CA/ --
> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google
> Groups "geoengineering" group.
> To post to this group, send email to
> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to
>
> For more options, visit this group at
>
--
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