Ok, the debate has bored me... unless there is some evidence to counter any
of the following eight claims I will likely not be responding to cc on this
topic, at least for a while. He simply is not going to be honest. And, of
course, I will continue to not respond to Carroll. I might respond to Onion
Knight or others who post on the topic - but cc and Carroll are just
repeating the same lies over and over and dodging the same questions over
and over. Even for me it has gotten to the point where it is not worth it
(and I have an amazing threshold in that area!). Ok, these are just some of
the facts that neither cc nor Carroll have any counter to - though they
clearly hate that they are true:
1) Snit is correct about how to create a linear trend line, being that his
procedure is the one recommended by MS and others (and he produced a video
showing his process was flawless). This does not mean that there are not
other forms of analysis that can be done, including different types of trend
lines or the weighting of data in a trend line, but cc's claim that Snit's
process was incorrect and that he missed steps is absurd and has been shown
to be false.
2) Snit was correct in saying their was an increase in desktop Linux usage,
esp. for the second half of 2011. The trend changed at the start of 2012
and went against the ideas that there would be a continued increase. Snit
did not predict this change of trend. Possible reasons for this trend were
not discussed in this ongoing absurd debate.
3) Snit was correct to note that the depictions of sigma lines found online
are often incorrect, such as the grossly incorrect one shown at the top,
here: <
http://tmp.gallopinginsanity.com/sd.png> - and it is easy to see this
if you know what an inflection point is and how that is associated with a
correct depiction. He showed many examples of incorrectly drawn sigma lines
and cc was flat out wrong to deny that they were depicted incorrectly. cc
has since somewhat changed that story and is saying *some* of the ones Snit
indicated were wrong were not - but he has not produced a single example of
this.
4) Snit was correct to say the first sigma lines should be drawn at a
specific distance from the mean of the bell curve - the distance to the
inflection points. cc was flat out wrong to deny that the sigma line was
based on the distance from the mean and instead only knew it was tied to the
area under the curve. The actual definition of the standard deviation is
not tied to the area under the curve (though that area will always be the
same), it is the square root of the mean of the squares of the deviations
from the mean - which, visually, is based on the distance from the mean -
and will *always* be the distance from the mean to the inflection points.
Always. There are no exceptions to this.
5) Snit was correct in noting that the R^2 value does not indicate if the
process of creating a linear trend line is correct or not. cc was incorrect
to push the contrary idea (which he repeatedly did). The fact is a greater
R^2 value does not necessarily imply greater credibility for trend line, and
in the case of the trend line that I generated, there was no statement or
implication that the data was meant to be predictive in any way. The stated
purpose was to show that the current data was matching a past claim - and
the data did (though, as noted, this changed at the start of 2012 when the
trend changed).
6) Both cc and Steve Carroll will *never* admit that Snit's process for
generating a trend line was correct in that it followed the exact methods of
calculating trend lines on both the Microsoft and Apple sites (with the one
exception in terms of Excel of using the right click method of getting to
some tools as opposed to using the Ribbon). Other sites also describe the
process - and they all match with what Snit did. He made *no* mistake in
creating his linear trend line.
7) Both cc and Steve Carroll will *never* admit Snit was right to note that
cc was ignorant of the sigma line being, visually, the distance from the
mean to the inflection points, even though cc repeatedly made comments which
proved his ignorance.
8) Steve Carroll will never give a list of what names he will admit to
having used on Usenet. He knows the list would be very long - so long he
likely cannot even recall all the names he has used. He will run from this
question forever.
With that said, if cc does actually offer a counter, such as showing where a
depiction I claimed to be wrong is not so, I will respond - assuming I even
see his post on it. It has gotten to the point where he is so boring and
dishonest he is not worth reading. He just keeps either running from the
above facts or saying they are wrong without offering any *reasonable*
evidence for his claims.
--
cc being proved wrong about his stats BS: <
http://goo.gl/1aYrP>
7 simple questions cc will *never* answer: <
http://goo.gl/cNBzu>
cc again pretends to be knowledgeable about things he is clueless about.