Litvinenko Poisoned by Polonium-210
Carey Sublette
being poisoned in London, was poisoned with the radioisotope polonium-210.
This isotope has a half-life of only 138.38 days, so the material used for
poisoning Litvinenko was recently obtained.
Polonium is readily absorbed by the body, but has a relatively short
biological half-life of about 30 days because it is excreted. It
concentrates in the spleen, kidneys, and liver which are the principal
organs of concern for exposure.
The rapid onset of illness after the presumed time of poisoning on Nov. 1
indicates a very high dose (if it was indeed the action of the radioisotope
that led to his initial symptoms). Po-210 is manufactured in nuclear
reactors and is used commercially in static eliminators (though on a much
reduced scale from many years ago), but the commercial anti-static sources
are so weak that a deadly dose cannot be obtained from them. There are very
few places were deadly amounts of this radioisotope can be obtained - mostly
radioisotope laboratories. The very recent acquisition of this material
should make it easy to identify possible culprits - unless it was done via a
clandestine route, like an intelligence agency from a government laboratory.
Carey Sublette
November 24, 2006
Former Spy Blames Putin Before Dying
By SARAH LYALL and JOHN O'NEIL
LONDON, Nov. 24 - British health officials said today that a "major dose" of
a radioactive substance had been found in the body of a former Russian spy
who died Thursday night after accusing Russian President Vladimir V. Putin
of being behind a plot to poison him.
Mr. Litvinenko, 43, a prominent opponent of the Kremlin, was hospitalized
earlier this month. He said that he fell ill on Nov. 1 after meeting
separately with two Russians and an Italian contact who said he had
information about the October killing of Anna Politkovskaya, a journalist
who had made her name as a critic of the government's policies in Chechnya.
Prof. Roger Cox, a radiation specialist working for the Health Protection
Agency, said at a televised news conference today that urine samples showed
high levels of alpha radiation. He said they appeared to be the result of
the ingestion of a substance called polonium 210, which he described as a
substance that is not generally available, but is used in some industrial
processes to prevent static buildup.
"You certainly can't go and buy it straightforwardly," he said.
"I've been a radiation scientist for 30-odd years, and this is the first
incident" involving apparent polonium 210 poisoning that he had seen,
Professor Cox said.
...
Copyright 2006 The New York Times Company
reste...@aol.com
Carey Sublette wrote:
> It has been reported that Alexander Litvinenko, who died yesterday after
> being poisoned in London, was poisoned with the radioisotope polonium-210.
> This isotope has a half-life of only 138.38 days, so the material used for
> poisoning Litvinenko was recently obtained.
>
> Polonium is readily absorbed by the body, but has a relatively short
> biological half-life of about 30 days because it is excreted. It
> concentrates in the spleen, kidneys, and liver which are the principal
> organs of concern for exposure.
>
> The rapid onset of illness after the presumed time of poisoning on Nov. 1
> indicates a very high dose (if it was indeed the action of the radioisotope
> that led to his initial symptoms). Po-210 is manufactured in nuclear
> reactors and is used commercially in static eliminators (though on a much
> reduced scale from many years ago), but the commercial anti-static sources
> are so weak that a deadly dose cannot be obtained from them. There are very
> few places were deadly amounts of this radioisotope can be obtained - mostly
> radioisotope laboratories. The very recent acquisition of this material
> should make it easy to identify possible culprits - unless it was done via a
> clandestine route, like an intelligence agency from a government laboratory.
>
> Carey Sublette
>
activity which causes it
to migrate. Early devices utilizing polonium (nuclear initiators)
often found the polunium
would "creep" all over the place as the alpha discharges would spatter
the polonium.
Also with half life of 138 days should be able to track it for several
months .
Michael Snyder
"Carey Sublette" <care...@earthling.net> wrote in message
news:c%G9h.296$pH....@newsfe05.lga...
> It has been reported that Alexander Litvinenko, who died yesterday after
> being poisoned in London, was poisoned with the radioisotope polonium-210.
> This isotope has a half-life of only 138.38 days, so the material used for
> poisoning Litvinenko was recently obtained.
>
> Polonium is readily absorbed by the body, but has a relatively short
> biological half-life of about 30 days because it is excreted. It
> concentrates in the spleen, kidneys, and liver which are the principal
> organs of concern for exposure.
>
> The rapid onset of illness after the presumed time of poisoning on Nov. 1
> indicates a very high dose (if it was indeed the action of the
radioisotope
> that led to his initial symptoms). Po-210 is manufactured in nuclear
> reactors and is used commercially in static eliminators (though on a much
> reduced scale from many years ago), but the commercial anti-static sources
> are so weak that a deadly dose cannot be obtained from them. There are
very
> few places were deadly amounts of this radioisotope can be obtained -
mostly
> radioisotope laboratories. The very recent acquisition of this material
> should make it easy to identify possible culprits - unless it was done via
a
> clandestine route, like an intelligence agency from a government
laboratory.
>
> Carey Sublette
Good work -- but I would qualify "very recent". Since (as I heard on
the radio) a lethal dose is in the microgram range, one could have stolen
a gram years ago and still had a lethal dose.
Carey Sublette
"Michael Snyder" <msn...@socmen.org> wrote in message
news:4567953d$0$82542$742e...@news.sonic.net...
This would be something like the world's entire annual commercial
production, and would be putting out 140 watts of decay heat. This stuff
isn't produced or sold in gram lots.
I think that 50 millicuries is about the right dose for the observed effect
(there are 4490 curies/g for Po-210), this would be 11 micrograms. This
about 200 times the amount in a Staticmaster® Brushes:
http://www.2spi.com/catalog/photo/statmaster.shtml
A quantity, say, 100 times this amount (which would have decayed to 50
millicuries over the course of 2.5 years) would be equivalent to 20,000 of
these commercial units - a very large amount to buy or steal.
Carey Sublette
<reste...@AOL.COM> wrote in message
news:1164413386....@j44g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
It is difficult to handle, but this is hardly an insurmountable problem.
They could buy 400 commerical sources for $4,000 and extract the polonium
and process it into a palatable concentrate, but some significant lab skill
would be required due to its toxiicity and volatility.
Michael Snyder
>
> "Michael Snyder" <msn...@socmen.org> wrote in message
> news:4567953d$0$82542$742e...@news.sonic.net...
> >
> > the radio) a lethal dose is in the microgram range, one could have
stolen
> > a gram years ago and still had a lethal dose.
>
> This would be something like the world's entire annual commercial
> production, and would be putting out 140 watts of decay heat. This stuff
> isn't produced or sold in gram lots.
>
> I think that 50 millicuries is about the right dose for the observed
effect
> (there are 4490 curies/g for Po-210), this would be 11 micrograms. This
> about 200 times the amount in a Staticmaster® Brushes:
> http://www.2spi.com/catalog/photo/statmaster.shtml
> A quantity, say, 100 times this amount (which would have decayed to 50
> millicuries over the course of 2.5 years) would be equivalent to 20,000 of
> these commercial units - a very large amount to buy or steal.
Fine, we all agree that it could not have been collected from Staticmaster
brushes. But you take my point -- if you needed 11 micrograms, you could
have purchased 22 micrograms 138 days ago, or 44 micrograms 276 days
ago, or 88 micrograms 414 days ago, or 176 micrograms 552 days ago.
This enters the realm of "somewhat recent" -- well over a year.
James Dolan
michael snyder <msn...@socmen.org> wrote:
|> I think that 50 millicuries is about the right dose for the
|> observed effect (there are 4490 curies/g for Po-210), this would be
|> 11 micrograms. This about 200 times the amount in a Staticmaster®
|> Brushes: http://www.2spi.com/catalog/photo/statmaster.shtml A
|> quantity, say, 100 times this amount (which would have decayed to
|> 50 millicuries over the course of 2.5 years) would be equivalent to
|> 20,000 of these commercial units - a very large amount to buy or
|> steal.
|
|Fine, we all agree that it could not have been collected from
|Staticmaster brushes. But you take my point -- if you needed 11
|micrograms, you could have purchased 22 micrograms 138 days ago, or
|44 micrograms 276 days ago, or 88 micrograms 414 days ago, or 176
|micrograms 552 days ago. This enters the realm of "somewhat recent"
|-- well over a year.
well, perhaps, but the point is that there's generally a strong
incentive to arrange things so that you don't procure the substance
until shortly before you're going to use it. (in this case not just
to minimize procurement cost but also because the bulkiness of an
equivalently lethal amount of the degraded form might be bad for
clandestine purposes.)
--
Michael Snyder
"James Dolan" <jdo...@math.UUCP> wrote in message
news:ek8q70$8ut$1...@glue.ucr.edu...
> in article <4567dea0$0$82591$742e...@news.sonic.net>,
> michael snyder <msn...@socmen.org> wrote:
>
> |> I think that 50 millicuries is about the right dose for the
> |> observed effect (there are 4490 curies/g for Po-210), this would be
> |> 11 micrograms. This about 200 times the amount in a Staticmaster®
> |> Brushes: http://www.2spi.com/catalog/photo/statmaster.shtml A
> |> quantity, say, 100 times this amount (which would have decayed to
> |> 50 millicuries over the course of 2.5 years) would be equivalent to
> |> 20,000 of these commercial units - a very large amount to buy or
> |> steal.
> |
> |Fine, we all agree that it could not have been collected from
> |Staticmaster brushes. But you take my point -- if you needed 11
> |micrograms, you could have purchased 22 micrograms 138 days ago, or
> |44 micrograms 276 days ago, or 88 micrograms 414 days ago, or 176
> |micrograms 552 days ago. This enters the realm of "somewhat recent"
> |-- well over a year.
>
> well, perhaps, but the point is that there's generally a strong
> incentive to arrange things so that you don't procure the substance
> until shortly before you're going to use it.
That seems a separate point.
> (in this case not just
> to minimize procurement cost but also because the bulkiness of an
> equivalently lethal amount of the degraded form might be bad for
> clandestine purposes.)
How bulky could 176 micrograms be?
... and if the Russian government was involved, I doubt if procurement
cost would be an issue. Their reactors, their polonium...
gerry
With this publicity on the toxic effects of Polonium, expect
Staticmaster brushs to be outlawed in the USA as soon as the
bureaucrats come back from their long Thanksgiving vacations.
The presence of polonium traces by the sushi bar and by the former
spy's home could also be the result of killers who did not know the
substance they had was weaponized radioactive polonium. If they
thought the material they had was just a powerful poison, they would
have thought gloves were enough protection when handling the stuff.
Just a thought.
Carey Sublette
Two points here:
1) Is it actually plausible that some killers-to-be decided well over a year
that on or about November 1, 2006 they were going to kill someone so that
they must lay in a large supply of Po-210 so that they would have enough on
that appointed day?
I think police detectives around the world would get the giggles if
presented with this theory of the case.
2) Yes, they could have bought 800 millicuries (this stuff is not sold by
weight) 552 days ago, but the math is actually working against the theory
that it was obtained from commerical sources.
50 millicuries is already alot for a commercial purchase (not to a regular
customer), and each doubling makes the purchase correspondingly more
conspicuous. 500 microcuries is the most you can buy in the U.S. without a
special license.
In the absence of any unusual purchases identifiable by commerical
suppliers, the theory that the source was clandestine (e.g. a government
lab) is strengthened.
John Dallman
(Carey Sublette) wrote:
> I think that 50 millicuries is about the right dose for the observed
> effect (there are 4490 curies/g for Po-210), this would be 11
> micrograms.
I went looking for decay paths and precursors for Po-210, and found a
note at:
http://www.webelements.com/webelements/elements/text/Po/key.html
that polonium is about 2.5x10E11 times as poisonous as hydrocyanic acid
(HCN). That makes 11 micrograms about as poisonous as the guy's own
weight in HCN. Hum ... not sure I believe that lethality figure, but
some other web sources support it. On the other hand, if he was poisoned
with a really tiny dose of Po, it would explain why it took them so long
to find it. Once people started talking about radio-thallium, surely
they'd have taken a counter to him, and to his excreta?
HCN has an oral LD50 of about 1mg/Kg, according to the physical
chemistry website at Oxford University, which seems a decent source.
http://physchem.ox.ac.uk/MSDS/HY/hydrogen_cyanide.html. If he was 100Kg
- orders of magnitude should have been good enough, that would have been
10E-1g of HCN, or about 10E-12g of Po-210. That's /really/ poisonous,
although browsing does seem to support Po-210 being more toxic than
Pu-239.
Wikipedia has some different numbers for its use as a radioactive poison:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polonium#Use_as_a_poison, which says about
0.1 micrograms, 10E-10g would be a lethal dose.
In any case, Po-210 alpha-decays to Pb-206, which is stable. Po-210 is
the only isotope of Polonium found in nature, but its short half-life
means that it's only found in uranium ores, which was where Marie Curie
found it. It's easier to make artificially than to separate: irradiate
Bismuth-209 in a reactor, which captures a neutron to form Bi-210, which
beta-decays to Po-210. OK, that's the reason for using that isotope:
it's the easiest one to get hold of.
---
John Dallman, j...@cix.co.uk, HTML mail is treated as probable spam.
pr...@prep.synonet.com
> substance they had was weaponized radioactive polonium. If they
> thought the material they had was just a powerful poison, they would
> have thought gloves were enough protection when handling the stuff.
> Just a thought.
Gloves ARE enough to block an Alpha emission. Might be a bit slight on to
prevent you ingesting the stuff though.
Anyone here read `Wolves Eat Dogs'? ;)
--
Paul Repacholi 1 Crescent Rd.,
+61 (08) 9257-1001 Kalamunda.
West Australia 6076
comp.os.vms,- The Older, Grumpier Slashdot
Raw, Cooked or Well-done, it's all half baked.
EPIC, The Architecture of the future, always has been, always will be.
Pietro Sommavilla
Carey Sublette wrote:
> It has been reported that Alexander Litvinenko, who died yesterday after
> being poisoned in London, was poisoned with the radioisotope polonium-210.
Something puzzle me...
# He was an ex-KGB colonel that fled in UK (after been framed and
arrested twice)
# He was criticising the government of Vladimir Putin about Chechnya
# He was accusing FSB of bombings in Russia
# He claimed to have information on the death of Anna Politkovskaya a
journalist who was shot in Moskow
# He alleged that Putin was a pedophile, and that Romano Prodi, the
Italian Prime Minister and former President of the European Commission,
had been the KGB's secret agent
An ex-KGB that was defying the Russian political establishment was
poisoned?
How it's possible that got caught so easily?
reste...@aol.com
> > It has been reported that Alexander Litvinenko, who died yesterday after
> > being poisoned in London, was poisoned with the radioisotope polonium-210.
> > This isotope has a half-life of only 138.38 days, so the material used for
> > poisoning Litvinenko was recently obtained.
> >
> > Polonium is readily absorbed by the body, but has a relatively short
> > biological half-life of about 30 days because it is excreted. It
> > concentrates in the spleen, kidneys, and liver which are the principal
> > organs of concern for exposure.
> >
> > The rapid onset of illness after the presumed time of poisoning on Nov. 1
> > indicates a very high dose (if it was indeed the action of the
> radioisotope
> > that led to his initial symptoms). Po-210 is manufactured in nuclear
> > reactors and is used commercially in static eliminators (though on a much
> > reduced scale from many years ago), but the commercial anti-static sources
> > are so weak that a deadly dose cannot be obtained from them. There are
> very
> > few places were deadly amounts of this radioisotope can be obtained -
> mostly
> > radioisotope laboratories. The very recent acquisition of this material
> > should make it easy to identify possible culprits - unless it was done via
> a
> > clandestine route, like an intelligence agency from a government
> laboratory.
> >
> > Carey Sublette
Not the first time the KGB used radioactive poison to eliminate a
defector
As related by John Barron, an editor at Readers Digest, in his book THE
KGB a defector
named Khokhlov was poisoned by radiaoactive thallium. He survived
(barely) do to
heroic treatments given by his German doctors. Looks like Putin
resuming some of
their old habits.
Peter Fairbrother
> It has been reported that Alexander Litvinenko, who died yesterday after
> being poisoned in London, was poisoned with the radioisotope polonium-210.
> This isotope has a half-life of only 138.38 days, so the material used for
> poisoning Litvinenko was recently obtained.
>
> Po-210 is manufactured in nuclear
> reactors and is used commercially in static eliminators (though on a much
> reduced scale from many years ago), but the commercial anti-static sources
> are so weak that a deadly dose cannot be obtained from them. There are very
> few places were deadly amounts of this radioisotope can be obtained - mostly
> radioisotope laboratories. The very recent acquisition of this material
> should make it easy to identify possible culprits - unless it was done via a
> clandestine route, like an intelligence agency from a government laboratory.
Po-210 was used in early atomic bombs as part of the neutron intiator - the
"urchin" - is it still used at all in that role?
I doubt that advanced modern bombs use it, but perhaps some crude weapons
might? How hard would it be for eg a terrorist or wannabe nuclear state to
make a non-Po neutron initiator?
--
Peter Fairbrother
Carey Sublette
"John Dallman" <j...@cix.co.uk> wrote in message
news:memo.2006112...@jgd.compulink.co.uk...
> In article <fSP9h.2265$Ll4....@newsfe04.lga>, care...@earthling.net
> (Carey Sublette) wrote:
>
>> I think that 50 millicuries is about the right dose for the observed
>> effect (there are 4490 curies/g for Po-210), this would be 11
>> micrograms.
>
> I went looking for decay paths and precursors for Po-210, and found a
> note at:
>
> http://www.webelements.com/webelements/elements/text/Po/key.html
>
> that polonium is about 2.5x10E11 times as poisonous as hydrocyanic acid
> (HCN). That makes 11 micrograms about as poisonous as the guy's own
> weight in HCN. Hum ... not sure I believe that lethality figure, but
> some other web sources support it.
The LD for HCN is about 30 mg, so according to this claim the lethal dose of
Po-210 is 0.5 microcuries - which is just two and half times what was the
*allowable* body burden for occupational Po-210 exposure for many years
(they don't do "body burden" anymore).
No, it is not nearly this toxic.
> On the other hand, if he was poisoned
> with a really tiny dose of Po, it would explain why it took them so long
> to find it. Once people started talking about radio-thallium, surely
> they'd have taken a counter to him, and to his excreta?
They did. A Geiger counter. Geiger counters don't detect alpha particles.
Po-210 is notable because produces almost no gamma rays or beta particles,
only alphas.
This makes the choice of Po-210 as an assassination weapon even more
interesting. Were the assassins using this hard-to-handle agent because it
would escape standard screening , unlike a strong gamma emitter?
>
> HCN has an oral LD50 of about 1mg/Kg, according to the physical
> chemistry website at Oxford University, which seems a decent source.
> http://physchem.ox.ac.uk/MSDS/HY/hydrogen_cyanide.html.
That's actually too high for HCN, but not for KCN, which is a much more
convenient source of the CN ion.
> If he was 100Kg
> - orders of magnitude should have been good enough, that would have been
> 10E-1g of HCN, or about 10E-12g of Po-210. That's /really/ poisonous,
> although browsing does seem to support Po-210 being more toxic than
> Pu-239.
My estimate of 40 millicuries is well above a minimal lethal dose (which
might be 10 millicuries or so).
It is based on the fact that he seemingly fell ill the same day he was
poisoned. I am theorizing the dose was high enough to destroy his GI tract
lining as the dose was absorbed, causing acute gastrointestinal syndrome
which is almost invariably fatal.
As a comparison, in the Goiania Brazil Cs-137 disaster several people
ingested Cs-137, the only one who died consumed the highest dose - 6 year
old Leidse das Neves Fereira who ingested 27 millicuries. Now, the decay
energy of Po-210 is about 4.5 times that of Cs-137 so this suggests a
threshold lethal dose of something like 6 millicuries in a 6 year old child,
more for an adult.
See:
http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/Pub815_web.pdf
pg. 55.
>
> Wikipedia has some different numbers for its use as a radioactive
poison:
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polonium#Use_as_a_poison, which says about
> 0.1 micrograms, 10E-10g would be a lethal dose.
The Wikipedia is wrong.
The editor makes the common mistake of thinking that the RBE values for
radiation (usually given as 10 for alphas) magnify the lethality of acute
exposures and calculating sieverts, then looking up "lethal dose" table that
happen to use sieverts (energy multiplied by RBE) and grays (energy only
exposure) interchangeably.
This is wrong. The biological mechanisms involved in acute toxicity and
chronic effects are different. Acute exposure effects is due to the energy
of the radiation only, which is measured in grays. Sieverts only apply to
long-term effects (cancer, primarily). The confusion arises because for
x-rays, gamma rays, and beta rays (the only source of external exposure with
radioisotopes) the conversion rate between Sv and Gy is "1", and mixing the
units does no real harm.
If you multiple the current Wikipedia value by 10 ("only 0.12 micrograms
(1.17×10?7g) or about 525 microcuries") to get the lethal dose in grays, you
get the 5.25 millicuries, which is similar to my Goiainia-based calculation
above.
Carey Sublette
John Dallman
(Carey Sublette) wrote:
> The LD for HCN is about 30 mg, so according to this claim the lethal
> dose of Po-210 is 0.5 microcuries - which is just two and half times
> what was the *allowable* body burden for occupational Po-210 exposure
> for many years (they don't do "body burden" anymore).
>
> No, it is not nearly this toxic.
Thanks.
> They did. A Geiger counter. Geiger counters don't detect alpha
> particles.
Because ... ah, most alphas don't make it though the window into the gas
tube?
> My estimate of 40 millicuries is well above a minimal lethal dose
> (which might be 10 millicuries or so).
>
> It is based on the fact that he seemingly fell ill the same day he
> was poisoned. I am theorizing the dose was high enough to destroy his
> GI tract lining as the dose was absorbed, causing acute
> gastrointestinal syndrome which is almost invariably fatal.
>
> As a comparison, in the Goiania Brazil Cs-137 disaster several people
> ingested Cs-137, the only one who died consumed the highest dose - 6
> year old Leidse das Neves Fereira who ingested 27 millicuries. Now,
> the decay energy of Po-210 is about 4.5 times that of Cs-137 so this
> suggests a threshold lethal dose of something like 6 millicuries in a
> 6 year old child, more for an adult.
OK, I'm with you.
> If you multiple the current Wikipedia value by 10 ("only 0.12
> micrograms (1.17×10?7g) or about 525 microcuries") to get the lethal
> dose in grays, you get the 5.25 millicuries, which is similar to my
> Goiainia-based calculation above.
I defer to vastly superior knowledge. You do know you're the reason this
group is worth reading, don't you?
Ac...@webtv.net
more?
John Dallman
(Carey Sublette) wrote:
> It has been reported that Alexander Litvinenko, who died yesterday
> after being poisoned in London, was poisoned with the radioisotope
> polonium-210. This isotope has a half-life of only 138.38 days, so
> the material used for poisoning Litvinenko was recently obtained.
The UK government has been quite cautious about blaming the Russian
government for this, but it seems to be moving in that direction. The
Metropolitan Police have also re-categorised the death from
"unexplained" to "suspicious".
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6186194.stm
Carey Sublette
<Ac...@webtv.net> wrote in message
news:26162-456...@storefull-3217.bay.webtv.net...
> Polonium-210 , ricin , dioxion . Doesn`t anyone use strychnine any
> more?
Very bitter, hard to administer.
When you have elaborate nuclear, chemical and biological weapon technology
at your disposal I guess you get tempted to show off.
Jim E
They do tend to lose stuff.
Jim E
Jim E
> more?
>
Harder to get, rules you know. ;-)
Jim E
John Schilling
>Carey Sublette wrote:
Much easier than it would be for them to make a Po-210 neutron initiator.
Deuterium and tritium are both commercially available in the necessary
quantities, gas discharge tubes are commonplace, as are the pulsed-power
electronics to drive them. The chemistry and materials issues would be
almost trivial compared to trying to build a Polonium initiator.
It is a common mistake to assume that nuclear weapons development by
contemporary emerging nuclear powers, will precisely recapitulate the
process of nuclear weapons development in the 1940s and 1950s. Much
of what was done then, is now widely understood to be a technological
dead end best avoided entirely. Po-210 neutron initiators are one
example of this.
--
*John Schilling * "Anything worth doing, *
*Member:AIAA,NRA,ACLU,SAS,LP * is worth doing for money" *
*Chief Scientist & General Partner * -13th Rule of Acquisition *
*White Elephant Research, LLC * "There is no substitute *
*schi...@spock.usc.edu * for success" *
*661-718-0955 or 661-275-6795 * -58th Rule of Acquisition *
beav
<zenad...@zen.co.uk> wrote:
beat me to the same question.
can neutron initiators be THAT available?
i can't wait til the Boy Scouts go nuclear - for real.
John Dallman
BEAV...@NETSCAPE.NET (beav) wrote:
> Peter Fairbrother <zenad...@zen.co.uk> wrote:
> >Po-210 was used in early atomic bombs as part of the neutron
> >intiator - the "urchin" - is it still used at all in that role?
> beat me to the same question.
> can neutron initiators be THAT available?
The stuff to build them, yes. The special switches that were used for
detonator networks in implosion systems found another use in high-end
hi-fi systems. The computer you're reading this on is thousands of times
more powerful than the best calculating machines the Manhattan Project
had available.
The special nuclear materials are the only things worth trying to
control these days. And learning how to make them comes from running a
civilian nuclear power program.
Scary, isn't it?
The CO
> The UK government has been quite cautious about blaming the Russian
> government for this, but it seems to be moving in that direction. The
> Metropolitan Police have also re-categorised the death from
> "unexplained" to "suspicious".
Certainly smacks of payback from somewhere. The Bulgarians were behind
the 'umbrella' Ricin poisoning of a dissident some years ago. Perhaps
they took it on as a contract...
--
The CO
Jim Elwell
> My estimate of 40 millicuries is well above a minimal lethal dose (which
> might be 10 millicuries or so).
>
> It is based on the fact that he seemingly fell ill the same day he was
> poisoned. I am theorizing the dose was high enough to destroy his GI tract
> lining as the dose was absorbed, causing acute gastrointestinal syndrome
> which is almost invariably fatal.
Given the timing of Litvineko's death, and the
presumed date of exposure, it isn't either
"classic" GI syndrome or bone marrow syndrome
(both are traditionally defined by acute, external
whole-body exposure). Probably a combination of
the two (his demise was too late for acute GI, too
early for classic BM).
Call me morbid, but I'm curious to learn what his
physicians thought they were dealing with.
Radiation exposure is part of the differential
diagnosis when presented with destruction of
intestinal mucosa and (presumably) crashing WBC
counts of unknown etiology, but you can't really
fault his physicians for looking elsewhere.
Metal chelators can potentially ameliorate Po-210
toxicity, but they've only been examined in animal
models immediately following acute exposure.
The autopsy report should be very interesting (if
it is ever released). Litvinenko will probably
become a cautionary tale in radiobiology classes
analogous to the residents of Goiânia and the crew
of the Daigo Fukuryū Maru.
-Jim
Ian Stirling
> Carey Sublette wrote:
>
>> My estimate of 40 millicuries is well above a minimal lethal dose (which
>> might be 10 millicuries or so).
>>
>> It is based on the fact that he seemingly fell ill the same day he was
>> poisoned. I am theorizing the dose was high enough to destroy his GI tract
>> lining as the dose was absorbed, causing acute gastrointestinal syndrome
>> which is almost invariably fatal.
>
> Given the timing of Litvineko's death, and the
> presumed date of exposure, it isn't either
> "classic" GI syndrome or bone marrow syndrome
> (both are traditionally defined by acute, external
> whole-body exposure). Probably a combination of
> the two (his demise was too late for acute GI, too
How transferrable are animal models?
If I've stolen a lot of Po210, is it really much more complex than guess
a dose based on wikipedia, then try it out on 6 pigs at various doses?
Mike Harris
> It has been reported that Alexander Litvinenko, who died yesterday after
> being poisoned in London, was poisoned with the radioisotope polonium-210.
> This isotope has a half-life of only 138.38 days, so the material used for
> poisoning Litvinenko was recently obtained.
(snip for brevity)
Po-210 is a by product of LBE (lead-bismuth eutectic) reactors, 209Bi + N
= 210Po. AFAIK the Russian Navy is the only organization using such
reactors in any sort of wholesale fashion; from what I understand they've
had difficulties as the Po likes to vaporize and "plate out" on the inside
surfaces of the subs in the event of the tiniest leak.
--
Mike Harris
Austin TX
John Schilling
Dallman) wrote:
>In article <c%G9h.296$pH....@newsfe05.lga>, care...@earthling.net
>(Carey Sublette) wrote:
>> It has been reported that Alexander Litvinenko, who died yesterday
>> after being poisoned in London, was poisoned with the radioisotope
>> polonium-210. This isotope has a half-life of only 138.38 days, so
>> the material used for poisoning Litvinenko was recently obtained.
>The UK government has been quite cautious about blaming the Russian
>government for this, but it seems to be moving in that direction. The
>Metropolitan Police have also re-categorised the death from
>"unexplained" to "suspicious".
>http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6186194.stm
As of course it is. The question is, how much suspicion should we
reserve for candidates other than the Russian government?
The most obvious explanation for the observed events, is that the
Russian government chose[1] to assassinate Litvenko, and to use
such a unique means as a way of making sure that, without being
able to actually *prove* anything, everyone would know who and
what and why and thus be warned against following in Litvenko's
footsteps.
And if that were the *only* explanation, the rest of the world
could just take it as proven that the Russian government now sends
its agents into foreign countries to murder people, and react as
they feel appropriate.
So, how credible are the alternative explanations? Accidental
polonium poisoning I think we can rule out. And the short half
life means "Polonium lost in the collapse of the USSR, sold via
the Russian Mafia to Parties Unknown", doesn't work either. This
has to have been the deliberate work of someone who can tap into
current Polonium production.
It also has to be someone with a motive to kill Litvineko. The
Russian government and its loyal allies, certainly qualify. So
do rogue elements associated with the Russian government but
acting against official policy and without approval. Enemies
of the Russian government might want to stir up "let's you and
him fight" style trouble between Russia and the West, and for
that matter Litvenko himself might want to commit suicide in a
flashy and suspicious manner to call attention to his cause.
But the list of suspects with both credible motive and credible
means for a Po-210 poisoning of Litvenko, seems rather slim.
Unless perhaps we can say that anyone with motive, could have just
bought a bunch of commercial anti-static sources and cooked up
their own polonium poison pill. My expectation would be that
this would require such an anomalously large number of purchases
that the few commercial suppliers for the stuff would have clearly
noted the pattern, if not when the purchases were made, at least
not long after the poisoning was revealed. But I could be wrong;
I'm certainly not an expert on the world commercial polonium market.
[1] Meaning, some people in the Russian government chose, and the
rest of the Russian government at least tacitly approved.
--
*John Schilling * "Anything worth doing, *
*Member:AIAA,NRA,ACLU,SAS,LP * is worth doing for money" *
*Chief Scientist & General Partner * -13th Rule of Acquisition *
*White Elephant Research, LLC * "There is no substitute *
*schi...@spock.usc.edu * for success" *
*661-951-9107 or 661-275-6795 * -58th Rule of Acquisition *
marika
Interesting question
mk5000
"The only time the governor was
directly asked ... if he'd ever been
arrested for drinking, and he
replied, 'I do not have a perfect
record, Throughout
this campaign he has been very
forthcoming with the American people
that he made mistakes as a youth,
that he did things as a youth
that he
is not proud of, and he has been
very open about that."--Hughes, Bush's spokesman
A.
Carey Sublette wrote:
> <reste...@AOL.COM> wrote in message
> news:1164413386....@j44g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
> > activity which causes it
> > to migrate. Early devices utilizing polonium (nuclear initiators)
> > often found the polunium
> > would "creep" all over the place as the alpha discharges would spatter
> > the polonium.
> > Also with half life of 138 days should be able to track it for several
> > months .
>
> It is difficult to handle, but this is hardly an insurmountable problem.
>
> They could buy 400 commerical sources for $4,000 and extract the polonium
> and process it into a palatable concentrate, but some significant lab skill
> would be required due to its toxiicity and volatility.
Russia has lots of people with lab skills - and a lot of them are
underemployed or unemployed. As usual, it's the government there who
employs nearly everyone anyway - the government or some multinational
or other foreign corporation.
A.
A.
If I wanted to obtain or buy it - where would I go to do that? Who
makes it?
A.
Michael Snyder wrote:
> "James Dolan" <jdo...@math.UUCP> wrote in message
> news:ek8q70$8ut$1...@glue.ucr.edu...
> > in article <4567dea0$0$82591$742e...@news.sonic.net>,
> > michael snyder <msn...@socmen.org> wrote:
> >
> > |> I think that 50 millicuries is about the right dose for the
> > |> observed effect (there are 4490 curies/g for Po-210), this would be
> > |> 11 micrograms. This about 200 times the amount in a Staticmaster®
> > |> Brushes: http://www.2spi.com/catalog/photo/statmaster.shtml A
> > |> quantity, say, 100 times this amount (which would have decayed to
> > |> 50 millicuries over the course of 2.5 years) would be equivalent to
> > |> 20,000 of these commercial units - a very large amount to buy or
> > |> steal.
> > |
> > |Fine, we all agree that it could not have been collected from
> > |Staticmaster brushes. But you take my point -- if you needed 11
> > |micrograms, you could have purchased 22 micrograms 138 days ago, or
> > |44 micrograms 276 days ago, or 88 micrograms 414 days ago, or 176
> > |micrograms 552 days ago. This enters the realm of "somewhat recent"
> > |-- well over a year.
> >
> > incentive to arrange things so that you don't procure the substance
> > until shortly before you're going to use it.
>
> That seems a separate point.
>
> > (in this case not just
> > to minimize procurement cost but also because the bulkiness of an
> > equivalently lethal amount of the degraded form might be bad for
> > clandestine purposes.)
>
> How bulky could 176 micrograms be?
>
> ... and if the Russian government was involved, I doubt if procurement
> cost would be an issue. Their reactors, their polonium...
Exactly.
So far, the Russians we know (and we know quite a few), haven't heard
anything at all about this story.
Jim E
"A." <atalanta....@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:1164865990.1...@80g2000cwy.googlegroups.com...
Just a guess, government labs.
Jim E
reste...@aol.com
>
> If I wanted to obtain or buy it - where would I go to do that? Who
> makes it?
>
>
> Just a guess, government labs.
>
>
> Jim E
Of course any dialing up a supplier and inquiring about buying Polonium
would unless
the buyer is known to seller and has a legitimate reason to possess
polonium (research,
industrial use (aka Staticmaster)) would probably be getting the third
degree from your
local FBI/DHS .
John Dallman
j...@cix.co.uk (John Dallman) wrote:
> The Metropolitan Police have also re-categorised the death from
> "unexplained" to "suspicious".
And now raised it to "murder". Which means they feel sufficiently sure
of it to withstand a blamestorm if there's terrible political fallout.
Vance P. Frickey
Is this very last statement an automated signature (like the
one my computer adds under my signature automatically), or
is it intended as an answer to restey9690's post?
And was John Kerry's past not discussed widely (as when he
assembled a mob of Sterno-drinkers to tour the country lying
about war crimes that in some cases they hadn't even been in
Vietnam to commit) because he was working for the side that
our press wanted to win in Vietnam (the Communists)?
--
Vance P. Frickey
remove "safety" from listed Email address to send mail
"When under attack, no country is obligated to collect
permission slips from allies to strike back."
- Charles Krauthammer
Vance P. Frickey
Although to be scrupulous, it's worth noting that Litvinenko
was a Muslim (one assumes a convert).
The closest thing we have to a profile on suicide bombers
and similar Islamic terrorists shows that they are often
late-in-life converts to Islam and highly-skilled, often
with advanced college degrees or similar education and
experience.
Significance? A committed, Koolaid-guzzling convert to
Islam in Litvinenko's shoes might have considered it his
religious duty to simulate an assassination by means that
implicate Putin and/or others in the Russian government very
publicly and convincingly - even if it's not true.
What I've heard about Soviet suitcase bomb technology
doesn't exclude the possibility of polonium-210 being part
of their design - some of what I've seen indicates that they
have to be serviced at regular intervals to remain usable,
and that they aren't healthy to be around for more than
short periods of time. (Of course, it's more plausible that
this is owing to the presence of tritium in the weapons).
But assume that either because Litvinenko had access to
suitcase nukes in his government job or connections in the
Russian nuclear industry, /he/ was the source of the
polonium-210 - the potential for mischief would be huge.
Isolating Putin and Russia from everyone else in Eurasia
politically might create more instability - and dissension
among what we call "the West" - on Earth than anything ObL
could manage on his own.
A new "caliphate" could simply move in and pick up the
pieces after a nasty internecine fight between Russia and
everyone else west of the Ural mountains started because of
nasty suspicions about assassinations which devolve into
another Sarajevo-type crisis - which kicks off another
political chain reaction like the one that led to World War
One. It could just be a very, very well-thought out
provocation.
--
Vance P. Frickey
remove "safety" from listed Email address to send mail
"If there is a God, atheism must seem
to Him as less of an insult than
religion." - Edmond and Jules de Goncourt