Why not wait for HD-DVD?
Tim Brennan
If HDTV standards have been finalized and sets may start appearing next year,
why shouldn't we wait for and HDTV capable digital medium like HD-DVD or such
before investing?
I know that that electronics change very quickly but video presentation
standards have not. How long has NTSC been a standard? How long has VHS
been around.
With HDTV just around the corner, it would seem that the DVD as it stands
today will be short lived as "king-of-the-hill" in quality. We can assume that
HD-DVD(?) machines will play older DVD discs but who will not want their
favorite movies in the much higher resolution of HDTV? Does everyone plan on
repurchasing their collection when HD-DVD arrives or is everyone assuming that
HD-DVD just won't happen?
Just curious what peoples thoughts are. My current attitude is wait a little
while. I bought into laser disc and wish I had waited.
T.B.
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"... I don't understand quantum physics, I just teach it." - Prof. Giri(dec.)
Penn State Univ.
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Robert-
In article <62l8im$dqi$1...@inetserv2.fs.lmco.com>, t...@darth.owg.fs.lmco.com (Tim Brennan) writes:
|>
|> If HDTV standards have been finalized and sets may start appearing next year,
|> why shouldn't we wait for and HDTV capable digital medium like HD-DVD or such
|> before investing?
There are many possible HDTV resolutions so there it is not
certain exactly what format will be used. It's also likely that the
new digital channels to a certain degree will be filled with several
standard resolution channels instead of more expensive HDTV channels.
Even after this settles it will take some time to agree on a HD-DVD
format. It's not easy to say if it will be available in 2001 or in
2004.
What will you do while waiting?
1-Buy no video material for maybe 6-7 years.
2-Buy LD with 4:3 aspect ratio and composit video.
3-Buy DVDs with 16:9 aspect ratio, component video, menus and much
nifty stuff.
|> With HDTV just around the corner, it would seem that the DVD as it stands
|> today will be short lived as "king-of-the-hill" in quality. We can assume that
|> HD-DVD(?) machines will play older DVD discs but who will not want their
|> favorite movies in the much higher resolution of HDTV? Does everyone plan on
|> repurchasing their collection when HD-DVD arrives or is everyone assuming that
|> HD-DVD just won't happen?
|>
|> Just curious what peoples thoughts are. My current attitude is wait a little
|> while. I bought into laser disc and wish I had waited.
Let's imagine what the situation would be in 2003 when you decide
that it's time to buy a HD-DVD player.
1-You have been starving for buing films for 6 years and goes berserk
in the nearest video store.
2-Your LD collection can only play on the Pioneer LD player you
bought in 1998 when they stopped manufacturing the players. On
your 16:9 HDTV they give a image quality far under that of regular
broadcast with much video noise. Displaying letterboxed 4:3 movies
on a 16:9 TV is not exactly high end any more and while increadable
extras has been added to DVD releases you have had to go to 2nd hand
stores to find LDs. While all Home Theater magazines are talking
about DVD you have had to read underground publications printed in
someone's garage to find information about Laserdisc. After buying
HD-DVD you retire your LD player and upgrade your entire collection.
3-Your have been enjoying the best home video format for 6 years and
the entire collection fits right into your new HD-DVD player. The
new discs does anyway provide even more resolution and you decide
to upgrade parts of your collection.
Robert-
--
*==========================>-ro...@unik.no-<=========================*
# Robert Lundemo Aas http://www.unik.no/~robert/ (13.2M acc.) #
#"Sun Microsystems today told Intel and Microsoft to take a hike", EET#
*=====================================================================*
JohnW248
><HTML><BODY LINK="#0000ff" VLINK="#ff00ff">With HDTV just around the corner,
>it would seem that the DVD as it stands<BR>
today will be short lived as
>"king-of-the-hill" in quality.</HTML>
Just around the corner to CBS and NBC means six to 10 years. At a meeting
last night at the Television Academy on film to television, a person from
CBS stated that by Christmas of NEXT year they expect 15 stations to be
trasmitting digital (not hi-def necessarily) television. No one has any
idea how many receivers if any will be in the marketplace. The best
transition estimate when there will be a "rating point" audience is 10
years (2008). (And both CBS and NBC don't have final specs yet on what they
will transmit. They haven't worked out the problems of live transmission of
sporting events and MPEG-2 encoding of a hi-def signal in real time with a
delay and the overlay of graphics and the conversion to 3:4 AND 3:4 NTSC
for simulcast, etc, etc, etc. We're talking hundreds of millions of dollars
in equipment before you can even turn on a set to see a picture.)
Based on what we have seen the studios do in encryption and protection,
there is no ground work that says they intend to make yet a "better and
higher quality" system available to the home. By the time you have HDTV, I
doubt that movies will be stored on physical removeable media. You'll
download what you want to see or select it from a VOD server, pay your
money and watch it.
As Dick Stumpt (president of the Technology Council of the Motion Picture
Industry) said of HDTV, "we can be paralazied by progress." If you wait for
something else, if you wait to set a "final" standard, then you'll never
have it. As someone asked last night, did we draw the line in the sand too
soon on DTV? The answer is probably yes, but it had become such a big
political issue that it had to be done.
So you can wait for HD-DVD, there may even be a HD-DVD and there will be
other things as well. My own prediction is that the future is in media that
you can't hold or store and will have to pay to view--but that's easily 10
years away (right after those big 16:9 plasma screens start selling for $1.98).
John
Curt David
Sure, I think this will happen. I look forward to it. I am hedging my
bets and trying to skip VHS where possible. DVD is better than VHS and
future HD-DVD (or whatever it's called) will be even better. My discs will
play on those future machines, they won't be the same resolution, but they
are not going to be worthless.
Tim Brennan wrote in article <62l8im$dqi$1...@inetserv2.fs.lmco.com>...
>
>If HDTV standards have been finalized and sets may start appearing next
year,
>why shouldn't we wait for and HDTV capable digital medium like HD-DVD or
such
>before investing?
>
>I know that that electronics change very quickly but video presentation
>standards have not. How long has NTSC been a standard? How long has VHS
>been around.
>
>With HDTV just around the corner, it would seem that the DVD as it stands
>today will be short lived as "king-of-the-hill" in quality. We can assume
that
>HD-DVD(?) machines will play older DVD discs but who will not want their
>favorite movies in the much higher resolution of HDTV? Does everyone plan
on
>repurchasing their collection when HD-DVD arrives or is everyone assuming
that
>HD-DVD just won't happen?
>
>Just curious what peoples thoughts are. My current attitude is wait a
little
>while. I bought into laser disc and wish I had waited.
>
>
>T.B.
>
>---------------------------------------------------------------------------
AndersonRM
>If HDTV standards have been finalized and sets may start appearing next year,
>why shouldn't we wait for and HDTV capable digital medium like HD-DVD or such
>before investing?
Why not wait for the first manned Mars flights? Why not wait until
you are in your coffin?
-Rich
John Miles
Tim Brennan wrote:
>
> If HDTV standards have been finalized and sets may start appearing next year,
> why shouldn't we wait for and HDTV capable digital medium like HD-DVD or such
> before investing?
>
Existing DVD software will look EXTREMELY good on HD-ready players.
Most of your format investment is (or should be) in the software, so the
cost of the player you buy today shouldn't be a major factor in your
decision, even with the built-in "planned obsolescence" we all know is
there.
My strategy was simple, and has worked great so far: buy the cheapest
DVD player around (Toshiba 2006 in my case), and then cheerfully dump it
in a couple of years when the blue-laser HD machines are shipping. I've
already saved enough money on software (with 20 DVDs) versus the cost of
equivalent laserdiscs to recoup the $485 or so I paid for the player.
There are some very serious benefits you can enjoy right now with the
current DVD-Video spec, so why put up with inferior formats like analog
LD for several more years while the politicians get their respective
acts together?
-- jm
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
> "... I don't understand quantum physics, I just teach it." - Prof. Giri(dec.)
> Penn State Univ.
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
--
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Brian D. Gillespie
John Miles wrote:
I think I agree with SGHT writers on this subject. During the first 3-5
years manufacturers will be concentrating on getting this new technology
off the ground and into as many homes as possible. There won't really
be much of a market for HD-DVD until a reasonable number of people have
HDTV-compatible sets! Remember, current DVD's will play back with
excellent resolution in 99% of current American homes.
I think HD-DVD with sufficient software will appear after 2000, probably
2002. Until then, I plan to fully enjoy the current format with all it
has to offer.
AndersonRM
How many people think consumers are more likely to shell out
$5000 for an HDTV set rather than $400 for a DVD machine?
-Rich
Jeff Ulmer
Danny Veitch wrote:
> announced late 1998 HDTV pricing in the $8000-$11000 price range.
> That's right kids five figures for a rear projection TV. I predict that
> they won't sell too many.
Yes, and I want to watch movies NOW. We could all wait for the next best
thing, but then we could all get hit by a bus tomorrow as well. I want a
HDTV, but unless I inherit a fortune, I'll have to wait until they are
affordable, say 2016. By then I'll probably be too old to see properly
anyway, so it won't make much difference.
Jeremy8000
> My own prediction is that the future is in media that
>you can't hold or store and will have to pay to view--but that's easily 10
>years away (right after those big 16:9 plasma screens start selling for
>$1.98).
Hey, go ahead and count me in for 2 at that price! Umm... do you finance?
Jeremy
Richard
The very high prices you hear about are part of a dis-information program by
the manufactures who will be very badly hurt if people stop buying the high
profit big sets and wait for next years HDTV sets. The best predictions are
that once sets are in volume production, 1998-1999 the will carry an $800 to
$1500 increase over existing sets. As display technology progresses there
will be little if any price difference, but that could take 6 or 7 years to
happen. The digital chip sets should bring down the cost of todays sets
based on non digital chip sets, just look at the PC world for an example of
this.
Danny Veitch wrote in message ...
Colin
AndersonRM wrote:
> Why not wait for the first manned Mars flights? Why not wait until
> you are in your coffin?
> -Rich
Why not wait for Fox and Paramount to release movies on DVD. Why not
wait for Amblin to release Jurassic Park and The Lost World.Why not just
wait it will happen ONE DAY !