Dunn and Morgan
Kevin McClave
and the feat is somewhat arbitrary, but it's been a long time and it's
impressive company:
"It was (Dunn's) 44th home run and his 100th RBI of the season, making him
the first Red to reach the century mark in runs (101), walks (107) and
RBIs since Joe Morgan accomplished the feat in 1976 with 113 runs, 111
RBIs and 114 walks."
******************************************************************
Kevin McClave
www.kpmcclave.com/splash.html
"The reward of suffering is experience" ~Aeschylus
******************************************************************
Ox
"Kevin McClave" <kDIESPAMD...@twcny.rr.com> wrote in message
news:cTw6d.99898$Kt5....@twister.nyroc.rr.com...
> Sure the runs and RBI are counting numbers based largely on opportunity,
> and the feat is somewhat arbitrary, but it's been a long time and it's
> impressive company:
>
> "It was (Dunn's) 44th home run and his 100th RBI of the season, making him
> the first Red to reach the century mark in runs (101), walks (107) and
> RBIs since Joe Morgan accomplished the feat in 1976 with 113 runs, 111
> RBIs and 114 walks."
>
Now toss in the fact that he's chasing the strikeout record. FREAK! It may
be bush league, but if Adam reaches the final day and is one short of the
"K" record, he takes a seat on my bench.
Kevin McClave
news:gNmdnbYfnfG...@comcast.com...
Miley's already told him he's had his last day off.
******************************************************************
Kevin McClave
http://www.kpmcclave.com/splash.html
"In the end, we will remember not the words of
our enemies, but the silence of our friends."
~Martin Luther King, Jr.
******************************************************************
Ox
"Kevin McClave" <kmcclave...@twcny.rr.com> wrote in message
news:10lm0l0...@corp.supernews.com...
> "Ox" <oxsp...@hotandsunnymail.com> wrote in message
> news:gNmdnbYfnfG...@comcast.com...
> >
> > "Kevin McClave" <kDIESPAMD...@twcny.rr.com> wrote in message
> > news:cTw6d.99898$Kt5....@twister.nyroc.rr.com...
> > > Sure the runs and RBI are counting numbers based largely on
> opportunity,
> > > and the feat is somewhat arbitrary, but it's been a long time and it's
> > > impressive company:
> > >
> > > "It was (Dunn's) 44th home run and his 100th RBI of the season, making
> him
> > > the first Red to reach the century mark in runs (101), walks (107) and
> > > RBIs since Joe Morgan accomplished the feat in 1976 with 113 runs, 111
> > > RBIs and 114 walks."
> >
> > Now toss in the fact that he's chasing the strikeout record. FREAK! It
> may
> > be bush league, but if Adam reaches the final day and is one short of
> the
> > "K" record, he takes a seat on my bench.
>
> Miley's already told him he's had his last day off.
>
I don't think it's likely to come down to the last day anyway. I guess I
would give him the option on the last day.
Peter Parker
then wrote:
He's one away from tying it after today's performance, I believe. I
don't think there's much doubt he'll tie it and then break it.
--
Peter Parker
tom dunne
No worries there. After today's game, he's one short of tying the
record with four games to go. The odds of Adam going 16 at-bats without
striking out twice are pretty close to non-existant. According to ESPN,
Dunn strikes out in 34% of his ABs; I know people say that strikeouts
aren't a big deal, but he *really* needs to work on making contact.
Ox
"tom dunne" <askm...@myemail.com> wrote in message
news:gJG6d.136496$787.1...@fe2.columbus.rr.com...
They are no big deal if he can continue to rack up those companion numbers.
At the very least, I would like to see him reduce the number of times he's
caught looking. Then again, he may wind up with yet more K's and less
walks. He would be a tough case for a hitting coach.
David Short
news:gJG6d.136496$787.1...@fe2.columbus.rr.com...
>
> record with four games to go. The odds of Adam going 16 at-bats without
> striking out twice are pretty close to non-existant. According to ESPN,
> Dunn strikes out in 34% of his ABs; I know people say that strikeouts
> aren't a big deal, but he *really* needs to work on making contact.
Yesterday's game. Tie ball game in extra innings. Somebody is on base with
none out. Sean Casey grounds into a double play. Marty goes on and on about
how if that ball was "6 inches to the right" great things would have
happened and
what a gamer Casey is. Adam Dunn comes up and whiffs and Marty is all over
him for the horrible K.
Tom you are a smart guy. No which at bat hurt the team more? Sean Casey's
double play or Adam Dunn's strikeout? Double plays kill your offensive
sequence.
They take you right out of a good inning. Giving up outs is BAD. Giving up
two outs
with players on base is a disaster.
Despite leading the team in plate appearances
Adam Dunn has hit into fewer double plays than
Sean Casey(16) or DJ(15) or Barry Larkin(15) or Juan Castro(11).
In half the plate appearances that Adam has used, both
Austin Kearns (8) and Junior(8) have hit the same
number of double play balls as Dunn. WMP was one shy at 7.
In 70 fewer at bats, Speedy Ryan Freel has hit into 7.
Making weak assed contact to the shortstop is something Adam Dunn
doesn't ever do and that's a good thing. It's why he has star potential.
I know...I know Advancing baserunners, sacrifice flies. Adam hasn't hit any
.....You know who leads the reds in sacrifice flies? I'll tell you. Sean
Casey
is the answer. You know how many sacrifice flies Casey has hit? 6. Lets say
that's 6 baserunner advances that you give Casey over Dunn because of ALL
of Adam's K's. Now look at the rest of the statistical record. Casey has 70
extra base hits. Adam has 77. hmmmm. Casey has reached first base 229
times. Adam Dunn has reached first base 253 times. I don't know how much
weight to give 6 sacrifice flies, but I damn well know that it's less than 7
extra
base hits and getting to first base 17 more times PLUS 8 fewer rally killing
weak
assed double play balls to the shortstop.
I'm not trying to talk down Casey's numbers here, he's had a fine season,
but
to complain about anything Adam Dunn has done at the plate this season is
just
foolish beyond belief. It's kind of like complaining that Barry Bonds
doesn't steal
enough bases. Don't be fooled by Sean Casey's gaudy batting average and Adam
Dunn's strikeouts. Adam Dunn has had the better season hands down.
Would it be NICE if Adam took fewer called third strikes with guys
on base. Sure it would, but then it would be NICE if Sean
Casey hit an extra 20 homers next year. He doesn't have to do that in
order to be a good player. Adam's approach is to get a pitch he likes
and drive it. As long as he produces at this level, leave him alone.
dfs
Kevin McClave
news:2s2jnnF...@uni-berlin.de...
Preach on, brother!
tom dunne
Massive post, not going to address each point. However, I'm not content
to accept the old saw that invariably comes up about strikeouts being
better than double plays. Of course they are, I didn't say otherwise.
Additionally, any claim that Casey is a better hitter than Dunn is a
straw man - I didn't say a word about Sean Casey. However, he makes a
great example.
Sean Casey in 2004:
Flyballs 31.2%
Groundballs 41.2%
Strikeout 6.1%
GIDP 2.9%
Adam Dunn in 2004:
Flyballs 32.8%
Groundballs 21.6%
Strikeout 34.1%
GIDP 1.4%
Of course Casey hits into more double plays, he's primarily a groundball
hitter; a 4::3 margin over flyball outs. Dunn is the opposite, he's
definitely a flyball hitter, 3::2 over groundball outs. And, not
surprisingly, he hits into GIDPs much less frequently than Casey. If a
player is primarily a groundball hitter, a strikeout is preferrable to a
'typical' in-play out. If a player is primarily a flyball hitter, a
strikeout is NOT preferrable to a typical in-play out. You know who
else is a flyball hitter with a GIDP percentage of 1.4 this season?
Barry Bonds in 2004:
Flyball 43.2%
Groundball 32.3%
Strikeout 10.9%
GIDP 1.4%
A player can keep out of double plays AND avoid striking out a lot, if
he the balls he puts in play are largely flyballs. Barry Bonds swings
at the pitches Adam Dunn misses or takes for strike three. Nope, don't
say it - I'm not asking Adam Dunn to be Barry Bonds. I am saying that
it benefits a team more if a power hitter spends his at-bats putting
that power to use rather than making U-turns at the plate.
If Adam puts more balls in play, does he hit into a few more double
plays? Sure. But the more balls he puts in play, the more he drives to
the outfield, he also GETS MORE HITS. Batting average/on base
percentage goes up, slugging percentage goes up, runs created goes up.
You treat this as if I'm saying turn 100 strikeouts into 100 outs of
other kinds. That's not what happens and you know it - not everyone one
of those balls in play is an out. Adam GETS MORE HITS.
If Adam put an extra 100 balls in play, often crushing them to the
outfield, do you REALLY want to tell me that the few extra GIDPs he hits
into offset the doubles and the homers and the sac-flies he also gets?
You content yourself with Adam Dunn and his wasted outs; I'll take
Albert Pujols, who trades in that extra 120 strikeouts for more hits and
more runs created despite a few more GIDPs. And he's not near the
flyball hitter that Dunn is - if Adam struck out as rarely as Pujols,
trading Ks for balls in play, Adam would be one of the three or four
best hitters in the game.
And, yes, if Barry Bonds can, he should steal more bases. His success
percentage the last six years has been the best in baseball.
David Short
> >>aren't a big deal, but he *really* needs to work on making contact.
> >
> > Yesterday's game. Tie ball game in extra innings. Somebody is on base
with
> > none out. Sean Casey grounds into a double play. Marty goes on and on
about
> > how if that ball was "6 inches to the right" great things would have
> > happened and
> > what a gamer Casey is. Adam Dunn comes up and whiffs and Marty is all
over
> > him for the horrible K.
>
> Massive post, not going to address each point. However, I'm not content
> to accept the old saw that invariably comes up about strikeouts being
> better than double plays. Of course they are, I didn't say otherwise.
> Additionally, any claim that Casey is a better hitter than Dunn is a
> straw man - I didn't say a word about Sean Casey.
Sometimes the old saws are true. K's ARE better than double plays.
> Of course Casey hits into more double plays, he's primarily a groundball
> hitter; a 4::3 margin over flyball outs. Dunn is the opposite, he's
> definitely a flyball hitter, 3::2 over groundball outs. And, not
> surprisingly, he hits into GIDPs much less frequently than Casey.
Are you quoting outs or balls in play? There is a difference.
(I'm not being snippy. You quoted groundball outs and flyball outs,
I really don't know.)
> If a player is primarily a flyball hitter, a
> strikeout is NOT preferrable to a typical in-play out.
That's an interesting statement. Make it again during the hot stove league
so I can think about it.
>You know who
> else is a flyball hitter with a GIDP percentage of 1.4 this season?
>
> Barry Bonds in 2004:
> Flyball 43.2%
> Groundball 32.3%
> Strikeout 10.9%
> GIDP 1.4%
>
> A player can keep out of double plays AND avoid striking out a lot, if
> he the balls he puts in play are largely flyballs. Barry Bonds swings
> at the pitches Adam Dunn misses or takes for strike three. Nope, don't
> say it - I'm not asking Adam Dunn to be Barry Bonds. I am saying that
> it benefits a team more if a power hitter spends his at-bats putting
> that power to use rather than making U-turns at the plate.
C'mon Tom. Are you seriously suggesting that when you wrote that
Adam Dunn "*really* needs to work on making contact." You were
suggesting that 24 year old Adam Dunn needs to turn himself into
a 37 year old Barry Bonds? How close does a player have to
approximate Barry Bonds before we can say he's any good?
> If Adam puts more balls in play, does he hit into a few more double
> plays? Sure. But the more balls he puts in play, the more he drives to
> the outfield, he also GETS MORE HITS. Batting average/on base
> percentage goes up, slugging percentage goes up, runs created goes up.
> You treat this as if I'm saying turn 100 strikeouts into 100 outs of
> other kinds. That's not what happens and you know it - not everyone one
> of those balls in play is an out. Adam GETS MORE HITS.
And by being less selective at the plate it's entirely possible that you
turn some
of Adam's hits into weak ground balls to the shortstop simply because he's
looking to get the bathead through a larger area and makes slightly worse
contact.
I don't know if it's a zero sum gain, but I do know that Adam doesn't have
to get any better to be damn good.
> You content yourself with Adam Dunn and his wasted outs; I'll take
> Albert Pujols, who trades in that extra 120 strikeouts for more hits and
> more runs created despite a few more GIDPs. And he's not near the
> flyball hitter that Dunn is - if Adam struck out as rarely as Pujols,
> trading Ks for balls in play, Adam would be one of the three or four
> best hitters in the game.
Well hell, in that case can I change my answer to ted williams? Roy
Hobbs? What's your point ? In a season where Paul Wilson is
considered a valuable asset that the team needs to resign, I don't
think anybody remotely associated with the reds (let alone marty)
should be critical of Adam Dunn's offensive production.
> And, yes, if Barry Bonds can, he should steal more bases. His success
> percentage the last six years has been the best in baseball.
Tough crowd. I believe Barry is on record as saying he doesn't
steal bases anymore because he doesn't want to risk being injured
in the exchange. There's a reasonable argument to be made that way.
btw, nice post.
dfs
tom dunne
> "tom dunne" <askm...@myemail.com> wrote in message news:4LW6d.140832
>>Massive post, not going to address each point. However, I'm not content
>>to accept the old saw that invariably comes up about strikeouts being
>>better than double plays. Of course they are, I didn't say otherwise.
>>Additionally, any claim that Casey is a better hitter than Dunn is a
>>straw man - I didn't say a word about Sean Casey.
>
> Fair enough.
> Sometimes the old saws are true. K's ARE better than double plays.
No argument there. My point, if I have one, is that double plays are
always thrown out as the counter to complaints about strikeouts. That's
more true of some hitters than others.
>>Of course Casey hits into more double plays, he's primarily a groundball
>>hitter; a 4::3 margin over flyball outs. Dunn is the opposite, he's
>>definitely a flyball hitter, 3::2 over groundball outs. And, not
>>surprisingly, he hits into GIDPs much less frequently than Casey.
>
> Are you quoting outs or balls in play? There is a difference.
> (I'm not being snippy. You quoted groundball outs and flyball outs,
> I really don't know.)
Results of at-bats. Actually, ESPN's numbers are a little screwy on
this account, so I'm not taking them as gospel. Best resource I have at
the moment, sorry. I'd think anecdotally we can agree that Adam is a
flyball hitter.
>>If a player is primarily a flyball hitter, a
>>strikeout is NOT preferrable to a typical in-play out.
>
> That's an interesting statement. Make it again during the hot stove league
> so I can think about it.
Will do. Without asking you to take a stand, you see where I'm going
with that, right?
>>You know who
>>else is a flyball hitter with a GIDP percentage of 1.4 this season?
>>
>>Barry Bonds in 2004:
>>Flyball 43.2%
>>Groundball 32.3%
>>Strikeout 10.9%
>>GIDP 1.4%
>>
>>A player can keep out of double plays AND avoid striking out a lot, if
>>he the balls he puts in play are largely flyballs. Barry Bonds swings
>>at the pitches Adam Dunn misses or takes for strike three. Nope, don't
>>say it - I'm not asking Adam Dunn to be Barry Bonds. I am saying that
>>it benefits a team more if a power hitter spends his at-bats putting
>>that power to use rather than making U-turns at the plate.
>
>
> C'mon Tom. Are you seriously suggesting that when you wrote that
> Adam Dunn "*really* needs to work on making contact." You were
> suggesting that 24 year old Adam Dunn needs to turn himself into
> a 37 year old Barry Bonds? How close does a player have to
> approximate Barry Bonds before we can say he's any good?
To quote myself: "Nope, don't say it - I'm not asking Adam Dunn to be
Barry Bonds." I never said that Adam wasn't good. I never suggested he
was anything less than the team MVP this year. I am suggesting that,
amongst the other top ten or fifteen hitters in the league, Dunn has one
obvious flaw - he has struck about about 45 times more than any of the
others. 45 times! That's roughly 30% worse than the next guy, Jim
Edmonds, and something that can be improved upon. Adam's a very good
hitter who can be better by addressing one point in his game.
>>If Adam puts more balls in play, does he hit into a few more double
>>plays? Sure. But the more balls he puts in play, the more he drives to
>>the outfield, he also GETS MORE HITS. Batting average/on base
>>percentage goes up, slugging percentage goes up, runs created goes up.
>>You treat this as if I'm saying turn 100 strikeouts into 100 outs of
>>other kinds. That's not what happens and you know it - not everyone one
>>of those balls in play is an out. Adam GETS MORE HITS.
>
>
> And by being less selective at the plate it's entirely possible that you
> turn some
> of Adam's hits into weak ground balls to the shortstop simply because he's
> looking to get the bathead through a larger area and makes slightly worse
> contact.
Yeah, I'd thought about that, but I don't think Adam's problem is so
much one of selectivity (he walks plenty, of course) as it is just poor
bat control. Anyone have a source that shows swinging strikes relative
to called strikes and fouls?
> I don't know if it's a zero sum gain, but I do know that Adam doesn't have
> to get any better to be damn good.
Again, you're barking up the wrong tree on this one. I never claimed
he's not a good player. But I don't want to see a player like Adam
settle for good when great is entirely within reach. He's got power
covered. He walks a bunch. How else does he improve himself if not by
cutting down on strikeouts/pickup up more hits? Is anyone going to
suggest he should try stealing bases? Etc, etc.
>>You content yourself with Adam Dunn and his wasted outs; I'll take
>>Albert Pujols, who trades in that extra 120 strikeouts for more hits and
>>more runs created despite a few more GIDPs. And he's not near the
>>flyball hitter that Dunn is - if Adam struck out as rarely as Pujols,
>>trading Ks for balls in play, Adam would be one of the three or four
>>best hitters in the game.
>
> Well hell, in that case can I change my answer to ted williams? Roy
> Hobbs? What's your point ? In a season where Paul Wilson is
> considered a valuable asset that the team needs to resign, I don't
> think anybody remotely associated with the reds (let alone marty)
> should be critical of Adam Dunn's offensive production.
My point is that Pujols is a more successful hitter because he hits more
balls and strikes out less. I picked him because he's comparable to
Dunn in age, in athleticism (similar builds, no speed) and in power.
Actually, I think Pujols has less true potential than Dunn, as he has
less pure power and doesn't walk as often. Maybe Adam can never learn
to make contact like Pujols can, but if he could... well, Pujols has
been the NL MVP runner up two years in a row and fourth the year before
that. I'd like to hear Adam Dunn's name in that list, but who would
pick him over Pujols, when Albert's higher batting average accounts for
an extra 100+ points of OPS? Walks are good, but hits are better...
>>And, yes, if Barry Bonds can, he should steal more bases. His success
>>percentage the last six years has been the best in baseball.
>
> Tough crowd. I believe Barry is on record as saying he doesn't
> steal bases anymore because he doesn't want to risk being injured
> in the exchange. There's a reasonable argument to be made that way.
Yeah, at his age and with his hitting ability, it's not really worth it.
But if he could effectively turn 30 or 40 of those walks he's given
into doubles... well, I guess he'd be even more aamazingly great than he
already is, so I guess that's kind of a silly discussion...
> btw, nice post.
Even though I disagreed with you completely? ;)
Kevin McClave
> > plays? Sure. But the more balls he puts in play, the more he drives
to
> > the outfield, he also GETS MORE HITS. Batting average/on base
> > percentage goes up, slugging percentage goes up, runs created goes up.
> > You treat this as if I'm saying turn 100 strikeouts into 100 outs of
> > other kinds. That's not what happens and you know it - not everyone
one
> > of those balls in play is an out. Adam GETS MORE HITS.
>
> And by being less selective at the plate it's entirely possible that you
> turn some
> of Adam's hits into weak ground balls to the shortstop simply because
he's
> looking to get the bathead through a larger area and makes slightly
worse
> contact.
And I think all we have to do is look at Dunn starting with the second
half of 2002 right through last season to see what might happen if he does
that. Has Adam's K rate increased this year (I don't know)?
tom dunne
> "David Short" <David...@Wright.Edu> wrote in message
> news:2s2viuF...@uni-berlin.de...
>
>>"tom dunne" <askm...@myemail.com> wrote in message news:4LW6d.140832
>>
>>
>>>If Adam puts more balls in play, does he hit into a few more double
>>>plays? Sure. But the more balls he puts in play, the more he drives
>
> to
>
>>>the outfield, he also GETS MORE HITS. Batting average/on base
>>>percentage goes up, slugging percentage goes up, runs created goes up.
>>>You treat this as if I'm saying turn 100 strikeouts into 100 outs of
>>>other kinds. That's not what happens and you know it - not everyone
>
> one
>
>>>of those balls in play is an out. Adam GETS MORE HITS.
>>
>>And by being less selective at the plate it's entirely possible that you
>>turn some
>>of Adam's hits into weak ground balls to the shortstop simply because
>
> he's
>
>>looking to get the bathead through a larger area and makes slightly
>
> worse
>
>>contact.
>
>
> And I think all we have to do is look at Dunn starting with the second
> half of 2002 right through last season to see what might happen if he does
> that. Has Adam's K rate increased this year (I don't know)?
2001: 1K/3.30AB
2002: 1K/3.14AB
2003: 1K/3.02AB
2004: 1K/2.92AB
Adam's getting worse with his strikeout rate every year. His first half
in 2002 was better than his second half, 1K/3.08AB jumped to 1K/3.23AB.
Ox
I would love to see him cut down on the K's. But if you were his hitting
coach Tom, what would you do?
tom dunne
Well, now we're getting into some off-topic territory ;) I really don't
know exactly what Adam's problem is that I could guess how to fix it -
is it that he is so non-agressive that he just sits there as strikes
shoot across the plate, or that his batting technique and hand/eye
coordination aren't good enough to make contact as often as other
hitters? I think people assume the former, but I wonder if it's not the
latter. In that case, what does anyone do? Choke up a bit on the bat?
Find a way to shorten their swing? Both of those statements are
generally true about how Barry Bonds hits baseballs, so maybe that's the
right way to go. Frankly, I wouldn't be opposed to getting his eyes
cheked either, to make sure everything is okay there.
My saying this won't go over well, but I wouldn't even mind seeing Dunn
lose some of his power if it resulted in a .300avg/.420obp hitter. He
has power to spare, and I'd rather see 90% of it used driving a ball to
left field than 100% of it swinging through strike three.
No, I don't think this is a given that a player can just choose to hit
in a different (and betetr) fashion. Maybe Adam already is all he can
ever be in terms of talent. But I think Adam can work on it. Does
anyone know if he does work on it, trying to make more contact? I'm
looking forward to tomorrow's reports, I want to see if he has anything
to say about how he feels about his record (and I bet the rest of the
guys on the tem are giving him shit about it tonight!)
Ox
Not to cop out, but I don't think I would do much with him. If his across
the board numbers begin to slide, then it needs to be dealt with. I don't
think it's an eye problem, because of the number of walks he gets. He seems
to have good pitch recognition, so he must be following it from the release
point.
I was taught and have passed on to those who have asked, the "flexible
pitching window" theory. If you are ahead in the count, you are looking
through a very small window. That window changes with the count. I think
that with less than two strikes, Adam lets a lot of pitches go through his
favorite window. He then hits out of the hole more than he should. But
then you look at has BB totals, working the count, has been favorable for
him.
I wonder if anyone has posted similar across the board numbers? We know
that nobody has ever K'd that many times and accomplished it! :) Excuse my
repetition................he's a freak.
To answer the question you posed............to cut down on K's, with two
strikes you have to become more of a defensive hitter. All folks do it
differently. I opened my front foot a little and shortened my swing, and
backed off the plate just a bit. If I choked up on a bat, it would end up
in the stands. But that was just me.
It appears to me that Adam keeps the same swing and stance throughout the
entire count. Most players do, especially power guys. Again, I don't think
I would screw with that. I wish I had a stat, (David will probably know
where to retrieve it) that shows how many times Adam put the ball in play
with a two strike count. But thinking back over the season, I remember a
lot of pitches through Adam's "wheelhouse", he watched, early in the count.
It will be very interesting to see his 2005 numbers.
Kevin McClave
>
> It appears to me that Adam keeps the same swing and stance throughout
> the
> entire count. Most players do, especially power guys. Again, I don't
> think
> I would screw with that. I wish I had a stat, (David will probably know
> where to retrieve it) that shows how many times Adam put the ball in
> play
> with a two strike count. But thinking back over the season, I remember
> a lot of pitches through Adam's "wheelhouse", he watched, early in the
> count. It will be very interesting to see his 2005 numbers.
The splits are a few games behind, but...
With an 0-2 count he struck out 28 times in 43 ABs.
With a 1-2 count he struck out 60 times in 90 ABs.
With a 2-2 count he strick out 58 times in 97 ABs.
With a full count he struck out 37 times in 90 ABs.
So, in 320 ABs with two strikes, he struck out 183 times, or to answer
your question as asked, he put the ball in play 137 times in 320 ABs with
two strikes.
He walked 9 times after an 0-2 count, 23 times after a 1-2 count, 39 times
after 2-2, and he had 53 BBs after a full count.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=6763&type=batting&year=2004
tom dunne
> Not to cop out, but I don't think I would do much with him. If his across
> the board numbers begin to slide, then it needs to be dealt with. I don't
> think it's an eye problem, because of the number of walks he gets. He seems
> to have good pitch recognition, so he must be following it from the release
> point.
I *think* he has good pitch recognition, hence the walks, but I can't
unedrstand why a guy who can recognize a strike would so frequently
choose not to swing at it. I mean, if it's a curve low and away, just
catching the corner of the plate, that's one thing, but as you point out
below, Adam seems to watch a lot of pitches he could crush sail by early
in the count.
> I wonder if anyone has posted similar across the board numbers? We know
> that nobody has ever K'd that many times and accomplished it! :) Excuse my
> repetition................he's a freak.
Yeah, I agree, he's quite an oddity. I just can't figure out 100+ walks
and nearly 200 Ks. In 660 plate appearances, he's not putting the ball
in play in 300 of them. His bat is the deciding factor in only about
half his plate appearances. Excluding from Bonds, who else can say that?
> It appears to me that Adam keeps the same swing and stance throughout the
> entire count. Most players do, especially power guys. Again, I don't think
> I would screw with that. I wish I had a stat, (David will probably know
> where to retrieve it) that shows how many times Adam put the ball in play
> with a two strike count. But thinking back over the season, I remember a
> lot of pitches through Adam's "wheelhouse", he watched, early in the count.
> It will be very interesting to see his 2005 numbers.
You can sort of pull those numbers from ESPN's season splits pages for
each hitter - you'd have to add all the 2 strike scenarios together, I
think. I'm looking at those numbers now and it's interesting to note
what Adam has done with 3-2 counts this year:
90AB 20H 53BB 37K
I assume they mean plate appearances rather than ABs, since it includes
walks in the result. 16 more walks than strikeouts in those situations
make me think his strikezone judgment is good. So is it that Adam's too
selective early in the count early in the count? I don't see how
telling Adam to swing at balls he thinks he can hit will screw him up.
It's not about being aggressive and forcing it, it's about not watching
hittable pitches cross the plate uncontested, right?
tom dunne
> Ox wrote:
>
>>It appears to me that Adam keeps the same swing and stance throughout
>>the
>>entire count. Most players do, especially power guys. Again, I don't
>>think
>>I would screw with that. I wish I had a stat, (David will probably know
>>where to retrieve it) that shows how many times Adam put the ball in
>>play
>>with a two strike count. But thinking back over the season, I remember
>>a lot of pitches through Adam's "wheelhouse", he watched, early in the
>>count. It will be very interesting to see his 2005 numbers.
>
>
> The splits are a few games behind, but...
>
> With an 0-2 count he struck out 28 times in 43 ABs.
>
> With a 1-2 count he struck out 60 times in 90 ABs.
>
> With a 2-2 count he strick out 58 times in 97 ABs.
>
> With a full count he struck out 37 times in 90 ABs.
>
> So, in 320 ABs with two strikes, he struck out 183 times, or to answer
> your question as asked, he put the ball in play 137 times in 320 ABs with
> two strikes.
>
> He walked 9 times after an 0-2 count, 23 times after a 1-2 count, 39 times
> after 2-2, and he had 53 BBs after a full count.
Thanks, Kevin - I tired out my calculator earlier in the day, didn't
want to add those myself ;) So Adam strikes out nearly 60% of the time
he has a 2 strike count. I wish we could find out what the MLB average
is in that situation, but that's something I don't know how to look up.
I presume Adam is the worst in the majors amongst qualified hitters at
avoiding a K in those situations.
Ox
> Ox wrote:
> >
> > It appears to me that Adam keeps the same swing and stance throughout
> > the
> > entire count. Most players do, especially power guys. Again, I don't
> > think
> > I would screw with that. I wish I had a stat, (David will probably know
> > where to retrieve it) that shows how many times Adam put the ball in
> > play
> > with a two strike count. But thinking back over the season, I remember
> > a lot of pitches through Adam's "wheelhouse", he watched, early in the
> > count. It will be very interesting to see his 2005 numbers.
>
> The splits are a few games behind, but...
>
> With an 0-2 count he struck out 28 times in 43 ABs.
>
> With a 1-2 count he struck out 60 times in 90 ABs.
>
> With a 2-2 count he strick out 58 times in 97 ABs.
>
> With a full count he struck out 37 times in 90 ABs.
>
> So, in 320 ABs with two strikes, he struck out 183 times, or to answer
> your question as asked, he put the ball in play 137 times in 320 ABs with
> two strikes.
>
> He walked 9 times after an 0-2 count, 23 times after a 1-2 count, 39 times
> after 2-2, and he had 53 BBs after a full count.
>
>
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=6763&type=batting&year=2004
>
Thanks Kevin! So perusing these things very quickly, I think I can believe
my eyes, and stand by my original thought.
Ox
Yes, I mean plate appearances, and not official AB's.
Yes, he let's too many go through his select hitting window, early in the
count. And I think that differs from what Ray Knight was trying to do with
him, pushing the aggression. There is a big difference. Instead of looking
at pitches early in the count, Adam needs tunnel vision, zeroing in on that
small window. In other words you want to try and limit the number of AB's
where you swing at a worse pitch than you let go by earlier in the count.
However, if I were the hitting coach, I doubt that I would broach the
subject unless or until the numbers drop. Could you fine tune him into a
more deadly machine? Probably. But you know what the risks are. Opponents
certainly are not going to pitch him any less careful, so we don't need him
"fishing". Maybe in a weird way, the K's help him. The opponents get
burned flirting with the strike zone, trying to rack up a "K" in lieu of
pitching around him.
Even though the trend doesn't currently show it, I think seasoning will
naturally drop his "K" ratio.
tom dunne
> Yes, I mean plate appearances, and not official AB's.
>
> Yes, he let's too many go through his select hitting window, early in the
> count. And I think that differs from what Ray Knight was trying to do with
> him, pushing the aggression. There is a big difference. Instead of looking
> at pitches early in the count, Adam needs tunnel vision, zeroing in on that
> small window. In other words you want to try and limit the number of AB's
> where you swing at a worse pitch than you let go by earlier in the count.
>
> However, if I were the hitting coach, I doubt that I would broach the
> subject unless or until the numbers drop. Could you fine tune him into a
> more deadly machine? Probably. But you know what the risks are. Opponents
> certainly are not going to pitch him any less careful, so we don't need him
> "fishing". Maybe in a weird way, the K's help him. The opponents get
> burned flirting with the strike zone, trying to rack up a "K" in lieu of
> pitching around him.
>
> Even though the trend doesn't currently show it, I think seasoning will
> naturally drop his "K" ratio.
Okay, ten I think we agree on the solution, more or less. He doesn't
need to be more aggressive, that's a pretty foolish approach for anyone
not named Vlad Guerrero (there is a guy who can make contact!) What
Adam needs to do is not waste his first or second strike looking for a
perfect pitch to hit (whatever he considers that to be) and instead
offer at strikes he feels he can handle even if they're not what he
wants to hit. I don't know how you train a hitter to do that. His
swing is fine, no changes there, he just needs to better decide *when*
to swing. Does anyone have a way to look up called and swinging strikes
and foul strikes for a hitter? I'd like to know what percentage of
Adam's strikes are outright whiffs. I'm guessing/hoping less than his
called plus fouls strikes.
About experience improving him... I'd hope so, but that hasn't been the
case so far. As I posted elsewhere, his strikeout rate has gotten worse
every year he's been in the majors, with a rate this year more than once
ever three at bats. On the other hand, he's already got the worst
strikeout season in history, so there's really nowhere to go but up.
And he's healthy, too - can't set a single-season strikeout record from
the disabled list :D
John Kasupski
<kmcclave...@twcny.rr.com> wrote:
>And I think all we have to do is look at Dunn starting with the second
>half of 2002 right through last season to see what might happen if he does
>that. Has Adam's K rate increased this year (I don't know)?
In the other thread that was spawned by this discussion, I came up
with the idea of dividing the number of strikeouts with the number of
at-bats to come up with a strikeout average (K/AVG.) and:
For Dunn this year, 188 K in 552 AB. A .340 K/AVG
For Adam Dunn last year, he had 126 K in 381 AB, which results in a
K/AVG of .330
In 2002, 170 K in 535 AB, a .317 K/AVG.
John D, Kasupski, Tonawanda, NY
Reds Fan Since The 1960's
David Short
> In the other thread that was spawned by this discussion, I came up
> with the idea of dividing the number of strikeouts with the number of
> at-bats to come up with a strikeout average (K/AVG.) and:
I believe you want to use plate appearances instead of At Bats.
dfs
David Short
> Kevin McClave wrote:
>
> Thanks, Kevin - I tired out my calculator earlier in the day, didn't
> want to add those myself ;) So Adam strikes out nearly 60% of the time
> he has a 2 strike count. I wish we could find out what the MLB average
> is in that situation, but that's something I don't know how to look up.
> I presume Adam is the worst in the majors amongst qualified hitters at
> avoiding a K in those situations.
I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I would be shocked if Adam was
anywhere near "the worst in the majors" when he has a 2 strike count. In
terms of a rate of success, I would expect that he is someplace near the
middle of the pack. NOBODY IS A GOOD HITTER WITH TWO STRIKES.
I'll bet if you look at the numbers, you will find that Adam's central
offensive failing is that he gets in a position where he is hitting with two
strikes far more often than most hitters. That would square with the general
set of observation here that he is too passive early in the count.
Another way to think of it is that all routes to K's lead through the two
strike path.
I simply won't have time in the next couple of weeks to look into this. It
would be a cool hot stove project.
dfs
David Short
> David Short wrote:
> >
> > And by being less selective at the plate it's entirely possible that you
> > turn some
> > of Adam's hits into weak ground balls to the shortstop simply because
he's
> > looking to get the bathead through a larger area and makes slightly
worse
> > contact.
>
> Yeah, I'd thought about that, but I don't think Adam's problem is so
> much one of selectivity (he walks plenty, of course) as it is just poor
> bat control. Anyone have a source that shows swinging strikes relative
> to called strikes and fouls?
I suspect the walks and the selectivity and the power are all extremely
corrolated. You probably can't intentionally futz with one without changing
the others. I don't know that this is true, but I do believe it.
> > btw, nice post.
>
> Even though I disagreed with you completely? ;)
Sure.
I never learned anything from somebody who agreed with me.
People disagree with me all the time. Sometimes they are right and I learn
something. Sometimes they are mistaken and I have the chance to help them
understand things a bit better.
I brought up the double plays because your post reminded me of my reaction
to marty's comments during the game. You called me on a smokescreen
and...well you were right.
Our central disagreement is that you think it would be fairly easy for Adam
to make a small adjustment and put more balls into play without sacrificing
what he is already doing. I think making an adjustment like that could
result in more balls in play, but would probably result in a significant
decline in his power. When the difference is stated that way, I think we are
far more on the same page than when you say..."Adam Dunn needs to make more
contact" and I think..."Adam Dunn doesn't need to get any better."
gotta get to work.
dfs
Henry Porter
> enough bases. Don't be fooled by Sean Casey's gaudy batting average and Adam
> Dunn's strikeouts. Adam Dunn has had the better season hands down.
>
I agree that Dunn is having the better season, but I don't see it as
hands down, meaning that his season isn't that much better.
I'm not a big believer in Win Shares (not a big disbeliever either,
just underinformed), but I found this on the Hardball Times site:
Player Team POS Bat Pitch Field ExpWS WSP WSAA
Total
S Casey CIN 1B 28.1 0.0 1.4 15 .954 14
29
A Dunn CIN OF 27.6 0.0 1.4 17 .856 12
29
D Jimenez CIN 2B 16.7 0.0 3.2 16 .612 4
20
R Freel CIN 3B 15.4 0.0 3.0 15 .613 3
18
K Griffey Jr CIN OF 15.2 0.0 1.1 9 .903 7
16
W Pena CIN OF 13.6 0.0 1.6 10 .795 6
15
J LaRue CIN C 11.0 0.0 3.4 11 .648 3
14
B Larkin CIN SS 8.7 0.0 2.0 10 .557 1
11
These numbers are figured through Sept 23. I'm not sure what they all
mean, but it appears that some of the stat geeks believe there isn't
much difference between Dunn and Casey.
tom dunne
> "tom dunne" <askm...@myemail.com> wrote in message news:Wx27d.149393
>
>>Kevin McClave wrote:
>>
>>Thanks, Kevin - I tired out my calculator earlier in the day, didn't
>>want to add those myself ;) So Adam strikes out nearly 60% of the time
>>he has a 2 strike count. I wish we could find out what the MLB average
>>is in that situation, but that's something I don't know how to look up.
>> I presume Adam is the worst in the majors amongst qualified hitters at
>>avoiding a K in those situations.
>
>
> I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I would be shocked if Adam was
> anywhere near "the worst in the majors" when he has a 2 strike count. In
> terms of a rate of success, I would expect that he is someplace near the
> middle of the pack. NOBODY IS A GOOD HITTER WITH TWO STRIKES.
You're misunderstanding me. I didn't say that he was the worst
two-strike _hitter_ in baseball, but the worst at _avoiding a strikeout_
with two-strikes against him. As mentioned, he strikes out 60% of the
time an opposing pitcher gets two strikes on him, and I bet that
percentage is higher than any other qualified hitter. It almost has to
be, since Dunn leads the planet in total Ks by a large margin.
David Short
was
> > anywhere near "the worst in the majors" when he has a 2 strike count. In
> > terms of a rate of success, I would expect that he is someplace near the
> > middle of the pack. NOBODY IS A GOOD HITTER WITH TWO STRIKES.
>
> You're misunderstanding me. I didn't say that he was the worst
> two-strike _hitter_ in baseball, but the worst at _avoiding a strikeout_
> with two-strikes against him. As mentioned, he strikes out 60% of the
> time an opposing pitcher gets two strikes on him, and I bet that
> percentage is higher than any other qualified hitter. It almost has to
> be, since Dunn leads the planet in total Ks by a large margin.
I don't know how plainer I can make it tom.
I doubt that adam dunn hits worse than other people with a two strike count
(or
if you prefer that he strikes out with a greater frequency than other
hitters
in that situation.)
On the other hand I'm fairly sure that Adam Dunn gets into more counts with
two strikes than anybody else on the planet.
dfs
David Short
> > two-strike _hitter_ in baseball, but the worst at _avoiding a strikeout_
> > with two-strikes against him. As mentioned, he strikes out 60% of the
> > time an opposing pitcher gets two strikes on him, and I bet that
> > percentage is higher than any other qualified hitter. It almost has to
> > be, since Dunn leads the planet in total Ks by a large margin.
>
> I don't know how plainer I can make it tom.
>
> I doubt that adam dunn hits worse than other people with a two strike
count
> (or if you prefer that he strikes out with a greater frequency than other
> hitters in that situation.)
>
> On the other hand I'm fairly sure that Adam Dunn gets into more counts
with
> two strikes than anybody else on the planet.
I have a saying on my wall that a single experiment is worth a thousand
expert opinions.
Tom is exactly right.
The experiment compares Adam Dunn to batters facing reds pitching.
Reds Foes Adam
Dunn
% of counts
where the batter %46 %56
ends up with
two strikes
% if two strike
counts that end %38 %61
up being a K
Adam does end up in the hole more than most hitters, but once he is there
he is far more likely to end up with a K than other hitters.
you da' man Tom. (well, this time;)
dfs
tom dunne
Thanks for looking that up, David. In defense of your initial position,
the difference in those opponent percentages is likely a bit
exaggerated, as the Reds have the third worst K/9 rate in the league.
Still, it more or less went the way I expected. The problem, as I see
it, is that this makes Dunn so much easier to pitch to with two strikes
than he should be. If he made adjustments against a two-strike count
(which I don't think he does), he could be a more dangerous hitter.
It's not even about hitting extra homers or picking up that elusive
sacrifice - he almost stops being a threat altogether because the
pitcher knows there's nearly a 2-in-3 chance that Dunn won't even make
contact. There's no incentive to throw him an even remotely hittable
pitch. Adam's reputation as a strikeout hitter and apparent refusal to
better defend the plate make him an easy victim, and that sucks because
he *could* be one of the most dangerous hitters in the league.
> you da' man Tom. (well, this time;)
Don't worry, I won't let it go to my head ;p My question now is do you
think the above stats are just fine, or that Adam should try improving
this part of his game? Rather than teaching aggression, as seemed to be
the sugegstion, I think he needs to be more defensive with two-strikes
and not just swing for the fences. Good hitters adapt to the situation,
right? Shouldn't Dunn?
Kevin McClave
More than most hitters who face the Reds pitching. That's a pretty skewed
sample, isn't it, David...or did I misunderstand something?
Kevin McClave
Maybe I'm misunderstanding you, but you make it sound as though you think
Dunn goes on fishing expeditions with two strikes ("there's no incentive
to throw him an even remotely hittable pitch"), and I don't think that's
true. I think he swings through a lot of pitches that would be called
strikes. With 200 Ks, he has a lot of Ks looking and a lot swinging, but
I rarely remember groaning because he swung at a ball with two strikes.
David Short
>
> My question now is do you
> think the above stats are just fine, or that Adam should try improving
> this part of his game? Rather than teaching aggression, as seemed to be
> the sugegstion, I think he needs to be more defensive with two-strikes
> and not just swing for the fences. Good hitters adapt to the situation,
> right? Shouldn't Dunn?
I think there are several people here who are probably better equipped to
answer that question than I am. (Mike, Jeff...that's your queue)
Up thread somebody said that hitting major league pitching with a single
approach is hard. Hitting it with two different approaches could just
complicate things and make the guys head explode. Or it could have the
effect that you desire. I don't know.
dfs
David Short
> David Short wrote:
> > The experiment compares Adam Dunn to batters facing reds pitching.
> >
> > Reds Foes
> > Adam
> > Dunn
> > % of counts
> > where the batter %46 %56
> > ends up with
> > two strikes
> >
> > % if two strike
> > counts that end %38 %61
> > up being a K
> >
> > Adam does end up in the hole more than most hitters, but once he is
> > there he is far more likely to end up with a K than other hitters.
>
> More than most hitters who face the Reds pitching. That's a pretty skewed
> sample, isn't it, David...or did I misunderstand something?
Well sure it's skewed, the reds pitching is pretty bad, but Adam Dunn is
supposed to be a pretty good hitter. I would expect that Adam Dunn facing
league average pitching should be even better than league average hitting
facing
reds pitching.
I'm pretty conservative when it comes to numbers, but the sample size here
is big enough the difference between striking out in 40% of your at bats or
60%
of your at bats is too big to ignore.
(BTW ...I think it was Henry posted a reference to Hardball times. I visited
the
site, one of the graphs there shows team wide pitching vs hitting. The reds
offense
is decently normal, fits right in with everybody else. The reds
pitching...fits right in
with the rockies. I think there is precedence for a team with either good
pitching
or good hitting to improve dramatically. )
dfs
Ox
I rarely see him swing at strike three out of the zone.
Ox
"David Short" <David...@Wright.Edu> wrote in message
> "tom dunne" <askm...@myemail.com> wrote in message news:nKh7d.8135
> >
> > My question now is do you
> > think the above stats are just fine, or that Adam should try improving
> > this part of his game? Rather than teaching aggression, as seemed to be
> > the sugegstion, I think he needs to be more defensive with two-strikes
> > and not just swing for the fences. Good hitters adapt to the situation,
> > right? Shouldn't Dunn?
>
> I think there are several people here who are probably better equipped to
> answer that question than I am. (Mike, Jeff...that's your queue)
>
No two hitters are created equal. But you can profile hitters. Adam Dunn
is the quintessential power hitter. I don't want my power hitter choking up
or opening his stance with two strikes. I want Lopez, Jimenez, Freel etc.
adjusting to the count.
I would like to see Adam hit a few more HR's to left and left center. If he
could cover that part of the plate a little better, THAT would cut his K's.
Same goes for Wily Mo. Somebody has really worked with WMP on covering that
outside half. He hits streaks where he does it real well, then falls off
the radar. But at least we know he is capable. When healthy, Kearns does
it best, with the most pop. Barry Larkin, even today, covers the strike
zone very well. He has just lost some punch. Casey is a free swinger. He
covers all zones well and just slaps the ball all over the damned park. He
has had a very nice season.
I don't buy the theory that Adam is as good as he's going to get. I will
agree that he could still go either way. But when you look at his total
picture, there's not a lot to compare him to. If it ain't
broke..................
tom dunne
To clarify, I didn't say that pitchers could get away with throwing him
balls obviously outside the zone - I said they don't have to give him
anything hittable. How many times have you see a hitter with a
two-strike count get rung up on a questionable pitch? Particularly
against a pitcher with good control, or particularly when the hitter is
notorious for striking out a lot? If Greg Maddux is pitching to Adam
Dunn with a two-strike count, the ball doesn't have to be anything
hittable nor does Adam have to flail at it hopelessly for an umpire to
ring him up on general principle - if he doesn't swing and miss, it's
liable to be called against him anyway. Adam can't even get the benefit
of the doubt in those cases, as he does nothing to help himself - he
just swings and misses too much.
Ox
Tom, it takes a helluva pitch to be a strike and not hittable. If you are
saying Adam needs to eliminate some holes in his strike zone, and protect
the plate a little more, I would agree. Again the key with Adam would be to
get him to swing at pitches in his "favorite location" earlier in the count.
It's funny you chose Maddux. I've always thought he had the largest strike
zone in baseball. You've seen him a lot more than I have, but I thought his
command this season was the worst I've seen from him. I'm only comparing
him to himself.
Ox
That was Ray Knight's supposed solution. I suggested exactly what you said,
IF I were going to screw with Dunn at all.
I would only want him to hit more defensively with two strike in rare
situations. There are occasions where a hitter walks to the plate knowing
full well he needs to get the ball in play. But I would be more intent on
getting his favorite window defined, and don't let those pitches pass early
in the count. I've played ball with guys who wouldn't swing at the first
pitch if the batter's box was on fire. I have never understood that.
Additionally, you don't want to go too far astray on this point, but you
don't need a strike to get a base hit (Sean Casey). Your hitting window
with two strikes is the entire window plus. The "plus" will vary with
different hitters. Over the years, you should get a good grip for what
border pitches you can handle.
If I were the hitting coach of the 2005 Reds, I would hand Dunn his bat and
helmet and say, go do what you did last year.
tom dunne
I think it's all related. I think he needs to widen his window of
'favorite' locations a bit, rather than take so many strikes early in
the count - he's not passive so much as too selective (I think). And I
don't think Adam does anything to protect the plate at all with two
strikes - his approach on 0-2 looks no different to me than on 2-0.
Maybe he's not the kind of guy who can change his approach any at the plate?
Can anyone get a split on what Adam's strikes are like? I'd like to
know if it's more that he doesn't swing or if he swings and misses.
> It's funny you chose Maddux. I've always thought he had the largest strike
> zone in baseball. You've seen him a lot more than I have, but I thought his
> command this season was the worst I've seen from him. I'm only comparing
> him to himself.
That's why I picked him. My point is that with a two-strike count, a
pitch doesn't necessarily have to be a strike in order to be called one.
Maddux is legendary for going further and further away with his
pitches, until players (particularly rookies and hitters of poor
reputation) are getting called out on pitches they have virtually no
prayer of hitting. Vlad Guerrero doesn't give a damn where the zone is,
but Adam Dunn is pretty much fucked in that scenario because he doesn't
change his approach.
Yes, Maddux's command has been going downhill the last two seasons. In
particular, he's missing over the plate way too much and giving up a ton
of hoemrs. You'll notice that the Braves are going to the postseason
while Maddux is not (Braves are beating the Cubs right now, if Reitsma
doesn't blow it). The best thing about John Schuerholz is that he knows
when to let go.
Kevin McClave
Honestly, Tom, I can't recall , many times at all this season when Adam
has been called out on a questionable third strike. The ones he lets go
by are usually strikes.
Kevin McClave
But if the Reds spitchers could finish off hitters with 2 strikes they
wouldn't be the Reds pitchers. I don't know that the example you provided
isn't skewed more than you might think. Maybe not.
> (BTW ...I think it was Henry posted a reference to Hardball times. I
> visited the
> site, one of the graphs there shows team wide pitching vs hitting. The
> reds offense
> is decently normal, fits right in with everybody else. The reds
> pitching...fits right in
> with the rockies. I think there is precedence for a team with either
> good pitching
> or good hitting to improve dramatically. )
Well, let's just see how 2005 plays out... :^)
Ox
While we're at it, it's past time to give Bobby Cox his due. The Braves
have become so automatic, Cox gets overlooked. This season may have been
one of his best managing jobs.
John Kasupski
wrote:
>To clarify, I didn't say that pitchers could get away with throwing him
>balls obviously outside the zone - I said they don't have to give him
>anything hittable. How many times have you see a hitter with a
>two-strike count get rung up on a questionable pitch? Particularly
>against a pitcher with good control, or particularly when the hitter is
>notorious for striking out a lot? If Greg Maddux is pitching to Adam
>Dunn with a two-strike count, the ball doesn't have to be anything
>hittable nor does Adam have to flail at it hopelessly for an umpire to
>ring him up on general principle - if he doesn't swing and miss, it's
>liable to be called against him anyway. Adam can't even get the benefit
>of the doubt in those cases, as he does nothing to help himself - he
>just swings and misses too much.
I hate the Yankees as much as anybody in baseball, but...
I can remember Reggie Jackson being thrown pitches that were down
around his ankles, and him jacking those into the water in Yankee
Stadium. I make this comparison because it's Jackson's record that
Dunn broke, and because there are some guys for whom the strike zone
is irrelevant. Among current players, Vladmir Guerrero is one guy who
comes immediately to mind as someone who gets a lot of good wood on
balls out of the strike zone. At his ankles, up by his nose, in on his
fists, the guy still hits a frozen rope somewhere. Very few pitches
are unhittable to a guy like that, unless you want the catcher chasing
the ball to the backstop in order to try to throw him something he
can't get the bathead on.
Which brings me to the point of all this...how many of Dunn's walks
are the result of pitchers trying not to give up the longball? I don't
mean deliberately pitching around him, but just a pitcher trying to
get too fine with what he does with Adam because of not wanting to
throw his next dinger, and he ends up losing him. I mean, if anything
in the same zip code as the dish is liable to wind up in the seats,
and the pitcher knows that...perhaps if Dunn changes his approach, his
overall success rate goes down because he gets fewer free passes from
pitchers who are afraid of feeding their gophers.
I thought about the fact that for awhile he had Griffey batting behind
him in the order - who'd walk one guy to get to a second guy who's hit
500 dingers and counting? - but even after Junior's season ended, Dunn
has continued hitting balls out of sight, I don't think his production
has been reduced dramatically because of Griffey not being behind him.
This has been one of the more interesting discussions in the NG. Yeah,
it cheeses me off when somebody whiffs, especially with RISP, but the
season Dunn's had, it's hard to argue with the results when it
includes almost fifty dingers, a hundred ribbies, and more walks than
anybody in the game who's not named Bonds.
In other words, although I still think leading the league in Ks by
batters is not a good thing, and yes it would be nice to see fewer
whiffs (by Dunn and several other Reds), I'm starting to be persuaded
by Mike's argument (basically, if it ain't broke don't mess with it),
at least where Dunn is concerned. Maybe it's best to just let the guy
go out there and strike out 200 times, dial 9 his 40-50 times, knock
in his 100+ and walk a hundred times, and accept that as being what
Adam Dunn brings to the ballpark every day, and be glad you don't have
Reggie Taylor or Ruben Mateo out there instead. Maybe it's better to
cut down on team strikeouts by working with guys like Pena and Jiminez
and LaRue and Lopez, who also strike out too much, but who aren't
producing what Dunn has produced...because if Dunn fans 200 times,
hits .250-.270 and produces 40-50 homers and 100 RBI every year like
this for the next 16 years, you can start clearing space for his bust
at Cooperstown as soon as he decides to hang up his spikes. They might
have to add "All-Time Career Strikeout Leader" to the rest of the
stuff on the plaque, but I doubt if that addition will make his kids
feel any less proud of him when they visit Cooperstown and look at it.
Someone up thread (possibly Kevin McClave, who's reminded me of the
fact before) pointed out that the main problem with the Reds this year
was pitching, not the hitters striking out. I dunno if I agree
entirely that it's OK for your lineup to lead the league in producing
nice breezes at the various major league ballparks around the country,
but I will certainly agree that if the Yankees won WS rings with
Reggie's Ks in the middle of their lineup, the Reds could do the same
with Dunn's Ks in the middle of theirs - if only they had pitching
that more closely resembles that of the mid-to-late 1970's Yankees
than that of the '62 Mets.
John Kasupski
wrote:
>I would only want him to hit more defensively with two strike in rare
>situations. There are occasions where a hitter walks to the plate knowing
>full well he needs to get the ball in play. But I would be more intent on
>getting his favorite window defined, and don't let those pitches pass early
>in the count. I've played ball with guys who wouldn't swing at the first
>pitch if the batter's box was on fire.
And probably with other guys who were notorious first-ball hitters.
>I have never understood that.
Nor have I. If the pitcher gets ahead 3-0 maybe the pitcher can afford
to waste a pitch, but why a hitter would want to waste a pitch,
escapes me.
>Additionally, you don't want to go too far astray on this point, but you
>don't need a strike to get a base hit (Sean Casey).
And Vladmir Guerrero who I mentioned in another post to this thread,
and some other guys who come to mind too - including Reggie jackson,
come to think of it.
> Your hitting window
>with two strikes is the entire window plus. The "plus" will vary with
>different hitters.
And, I would imagine, with different pitchers, and different umps
working the plate.
> Over the years, you should get a good grip for what
>border pitches you can handle.
>
>If I were the hitting coach of the 2005 Reds, I would hand Dunn his bat and
>helmet and say, go do what you did last year.
Like I said, I'm beginning to be convinced - especially if you hand
him his bat and helmet, and he goes out and hits another 40-50
dingers, and knocks in another 100 runs, etc.
On the other hand, if he could turn half those Ks into base hits, with
his power he might win the first Triple Crown since Yaz won it in '67
which I think is the point some of the other guys are trying to get
at, although none of them has said it in so many words (so I have,
just now).
tom dunne
> On Fri, 01 Oct 2004 21:09:34 GMT, tom dunne <askm...@myemail.com>
> wrote:
>
>
>>To clarify, I didn't say that pitchers could get away with throwing him
>>balls obviously outside the zone - I said they don't have to give him
>>anything hittable. How many times have you see a hitter with a
>>two-strike count get rung up on a questionable pitch? Particularly
>>against a pitcher with good control, or particularly when the hitter is
>>notorious for striking out a lot? If Greg Maddux is pitching to Adam
>>Dunn with a two-strike count, the ball doesn't have to be anything
>>hittable nor does Adam have to flail at it hopelessly for an umpire to
>>ring him up on general principle - if he doesn't swing and miss, it's
>>liable to be called against him anyway. Adam can't even get the benefit
>>of the doubt in those cases, as he does nothing to help himself - he
>>just swings and misses too much.
>
>
> I hate the Yankees as much as anybody in baseball, but...
>
> I can remember Reggie Jackson being thrown pitches that were down
> around his ankles, and him jacking those into the water in Yankee
> Stadium. I make this comparison because it's Jackson's record that
> Dunn broke,
You know, I stopped reading your post right here. You're a good poster
John, but c'mon - look this stuff up before you start writing. Dunn
broke Bobby Bonds' single-season strikeout record; Reggie Jackson's
highest season for strikeouts isn't even in the top 20 all time, more
than twenty K's behind Adam's new record.
I'll get back to your post in a bit, OSU football approaches...
John Kasupski
wrote:
>I can remember Reggie Jackson being thrown pitches that were down
>around his ankles, and him jacking those into the water in Yankee
>Stadium. I make this comparison because it's Jackson's record that
>Dunn broke,
...which of course it wasn't, the record belonged to Bobby Bonds. The
record Jackson holds is that he's the all-time career strikeouts
leader. Somehow, I got the two confused.
Jackson also has the record for most seasons leading the league in
strikeouts (4, shared with three National leaguers), and most seasons
with at least 100 strikeouts (18).
My apologies for the error, and my thanks to Tom for pointing it out.