http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0311/p08s02-comv.html
Commentary > The Monitor's View
from the March 11, 2005 edition
Shrinking Empires
How Russia, Serbia must deal with rebellious provinces
The Monitor's View
In 1947, when India gained independence, the unthinkable happened to
the British: The sun began to set on their empire. It took them years
to get used to the idea that their imperial days were over. Nearly a
decade after losing India, for instance, they dug in their heels over
control of the Suez Canal, then were forced to retreat under US
pressure.
As the British example shows, downsizing gracefully is not easy for a
power that controls other peoples. That's an important point to keep in
mind as two former empires - Russia, as the largest remnant of the
former Soviet Union; and Serbia, as the power behind the former
Yugoslavia - still face challenges to their regional dominance more
than a decade after their empires collapsed.
"I see Russia now as being like Britain in the 1950s," says Fiona Hill,
a Russia expert at the Brookings Institution. Back then, she says,
"Britain was a surly, not-too-happy country.... It took an awful lot of
time to get rid of that imperial hangover."
Two events this week are a reminder of this ongoing adjustment. In the
Russian province of Chechnya on Tuesday, rebel leader Aslan Maskhadov
was killed when Russian forces raided his hideout. On the same day,
Kosovo Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj resigned to face indictment by
the war crimes tribunal at The Hague. Even though the largely ethnic
Albanian province of Kosovo has been under UN control since NATO planes
drove out Serb troops in 1999, it's still part of Serbia.
The events are not connected by anything other than a date, but Moscow
and Belgrade are probably wondering the same thing: Will they spark new
violence in these rebellious areas, and bring simmering separatist
sentiments to an uncontrollable boil?
Breaking up is hard to do
It's difficult for empires, large or small, to give up territory.
Russia and Serbia (now officially the country of Serbia and Montenegro)
still entertain visions of greatness. It was, thank you very much,
Russia which saved Europe from the Mongols, and turned back Napoleon
and the Nazis. This required huge sacrifices of life and treasure, for
which many Russians feel they've never gotten proper credit.
Exactly, many Serbs nod along; wasn't it Serbian power that helped
repel the Turks in the 14th century, and, in modern times, united a
disparate group of ethnicities in the single Communist state of
Yugoslavia?
Now, Moscow has lost its former western playground to the European
Union, its Slavic birthplace of Ukraine to an Orange Revolution, and
its southern soulmate of Georgia to a Rose Revolution. It's cost Russia
two wars and horrific terrorist attacks to hang on to Chechnya, and it
doesn't want to encourage other ethnic regions to split off from the
Russian Federation.
In Belgrade, the question is what will be left of Serbia's old
Yugoslavia if it gives in to the demand for independence pushed by the
majority Kosovo Albanians? It's already lost Croatia,
Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, and Slovenia. This summer the
international community is scheduled to review Kosovo's final status,
while still trying to protect the rights of the Serb minority in
Kosovo.
One factor that will influence the willingness of either Russia or
Serbia to grant these two chafing provinces their right to
self-determination is the degree to which each country embraces
democratic values like rule of law and representative government.
Serbia-Montenegro is being hauled in that direction by the economic
pull of the EU, which demands democratic and market reforms from
countries that aspire to join that club. The EU is leaning on
Serbia-Montenegro to hand over suspected war criminals from the wars of
the 1990s before beginning talks on closer ties, and Belgrade is now
responding.
A different kind of empire
It's not hard to imagine that, given time and incentives, all of the
former Yugoslavia will eventually find a new identity as part of an "EU
empire." In that new kind of empire, common democratic values can
eventually erode ethnic divisions.
Russia doesn't have this option. But it can itself become a regional
influence for peace and prosperity, and do much to calm the tension in
Chechnya and elsewhere in the Caucasus - if it were to move more
solidly in a democratic direction of openness and tolerance. This is
just one more reason why the West must persist in preventing a
backsliding in Russian democracy.
- neke stvari se u politici ne menjaju, i ovome sto si napisao nema se
sta dodati, nazalost :-( ...
Ne pljuju, vec govore istinu...
Dezurni YCEP cvrcko BBPOTE:
Ne pljuju, vec govore istinu...
Da, da, obicno se takve "istine" plasiraju kada treba preduzeti neku
politicku akciju. Na primer neki korak ka priznavanju nezavisnosti Kosova-
citaj: finalizacija zlocinackog poduhvata milosrdnog andjela"- otimanje dela
teritorije Srbije.
Ovaj lik, cvrcko, pokusava da plasira jos jednu slicnu tezu i o
antisemitizmu u Srbiji. Da nije to naci ce jos hiljadu stvari. I Romi su
ugrozeni i svi ostali, samo Srbi nisu i jos su fasisti odozgo, a slicni su i
Rusima, koji su takodje fasisti i zato i njima tako i treba. A bombardovanje
je bilo samo zbog Milosevica, naravno. Daj nadji bilo sta, zaleti se i
pljuni na Srbe. TO KEP CAC MACT HE MEPE JECT. Nazivati Srbiju imperijom
(naslov clanka) kada je od nje ostala saka jada i kada je najsiromasnija i
najstarija zemlja u Evropi vrhunac je zlocinacke hipokrizije
Naucices da se ne sluzis takvim faktickim neistinama na forumu u kom ja
ucestvujem.
Rumuna pocetkom XX veka - 9,720.000
Kraljevina Rumunija (1899) - 5,489.000 (Vlaska, Oltenija, Moldavska,
Dobrudza)
Austrija (1900) - 231.000 (Bukovina)
Ugarska (1900) - 2,799.000 (Erdelj, Maramures, Bukovina, Banat)
Hrvatska-Slavonija (1900) - 3.000
Bugarska (1900) - 71.000
Rusija (1897) - 1,127.000 (Basarabija odnosno danasnja Republika
Moldova plus mnogo sto sta, Transdnjestar, Ukrajina)
Srba-pravoslavaca pocetkom XX veka - 5,061.000
Knjazevina Srbija - 2,400.000
Hrvatska-Slavonija - 611.000
BiH - 825.000 (samo pravoslavaca)
Ugarska - 438.000 (Baranja, Backa, Banat i Madjarska)
Austrija - 93.000 (Dalmacija, Boka i Istra)
Knjazevina Crna Gora - 294.000
Osmansko carstvo - 400.000 (Stara Srbija, Kosovo, Metohija, Makedonija
itd.)
Srbe-katolike i Srbe-muslimane namerno ne racunam jer su se oni
rasrbili i ne valja brkati babe i zabe.
Danas ima oko 10-11 miliona Srba i 23 miliona Rumuna (ako racunamo sve
Moldovance mada i tamo imaju separatiste kao sto i mi imamo
Crnogorce-Makedonce koje ja nisam uracunao u onih 10-11 miliona molicu
lepo). Kada mi broju Srba saberemo sve pravoslavne Crnogorce koje sam
izostavio i cetvrtinu/petinu Makedonaca pravoslavaca koji se racunaju u
onih (140.000 u Makedoniji prema 260.000 Srba na Kosovu-Metohiji i u
Raskoj) dobijemo otprilike istu proporciju izmedju Srba i Rumuna kao
1900.
Ne.
--
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XPBOJE wrote:
> Mozda moji podaci nisu 100% tocni, ali ni tvoji ne boluju od preciznosti
> niti navodis izvor.
- nisam naveo ama bas nikakve podatke, neznam o cemu govoris...
Sem toga, smisao toga sto sam napisao je da si opisao situaciju bas
onakvom kakva zaista i jeste, i da stvarno nevidim sta bi se jos moglo
dodati ...
Provericu moje podatke.
> Znam pouzdano o Srpskim zrtvama u II sv. ratu.
> Znate li vi kakv je polozaj Srba na Kosovu, da tamo za Srbe vlada pravo
> srednjevekovno ropstvo kome nema premca u suvremenom svetu, a ovde neke
> protuhe proturaju, te Srbija (fasisticka) imperija, te u Srbiji antisemitizm
> (slag na tortu fasizma). Dajte, o cemu mi to razgovaramo?
-aman, ti si pomesao postove definitivno ;-) , jer o tome mislimo
manje-vise isto...
- moras njega da pitas, mozda zato sto cita ovo sto pises, a nemoze da
cuje ;-)
>
>
To sto je lupio za odnos Srba i Rumuna je samo minoran detalj u odnosu na
"najstarija nacija"...
Da dodam jos: cini mi se da sve Evropske zemlje imaju belu kugu, osim V.
Britanije i albanije. Je sam li fali neka drzava? :-?
--
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Rumuni tek imaju belu kugu, to jest kao narod, kao drzava je slucaj
ublazen zbog ogromnog broja Cigana.
Sto se tice Albanije, 2001. na popisu su imali 100.000 stanovnika manje
nego na zadnjem popisu (bese 1992.). Njihovi takodje masivno napustaju
Albaniju za Italiju, Svajcarsku, Nemacku, Skandinaviju i druge zemlje.
Englezi takodje pate od bele kuge (kao narod) ali kod njih Indusi,
Pakistanci, Arapi, Karibljani i drugi isto tako 'popravljaju'
demografsku sliku (u kvantitativnom ako ne kvalitativnom smislu).
Ovo je direktno poricanje crnogorske drzavnosti koja je
povjesno i pravno evidentna. Previd vrijedan zaljenja.
Crna Gora je bila dio Kraljevine Srbije, ali sa Republikom
Srbijom je potpuno jednaka.
Pozdrav,
Tin
Ti kao Hrvat se osecas prozvanim da verbalno branis crnogorsku
drzavnost od nepismenih anglosaksonskih mufljuza koji pisu o
njima-stranim balkanskim temama?
Crna Gora je ujedinila sa Srbijom 1918. Pripojili se odlukom Podgoricke
skupstine.
> Sto se tice Albanije, 2001. na popisu su imali 100.000 stanovnika manje
> nego na zadnjem popisu (bese 1992.). Njihovi takodje masivno napustaju
> Albaniju za Italiju, Svajcarsku, Nemacku, Skandinaviju i druge zemlje.
Ma, to su oni sto su izginuli na Kosovu u uniformama OVK...i u Ceceniji, i
Avganistanu...i Iraku...
Znaci, nama su demografsku sliku popravljali shiptari? :-/
A i nisam dobro formulisao pitanje: koji od evropskih NARODA nema belu
kugu osim shipaca?
Kakav degenerik. Da ne pricam o sranju protiv imperijalizma, u kom se
spominju Rusija i Srbija.
> Two events this week are a reminder of this ongoing adjustment. In the
> Russian province of Chechnya on Tuesday, rebel leader Aslan Maskhadov
> was killed when Russian forces raided his hideout. On the same day,
> Kosovo Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj resigned to face indictment by
> the war crimes tribunal at The Hague. Even though the largely ethnic
> Albanian province of Kosovo has been under UN control since NATO planes
> drove out Serb troops in 1999, it's still part of Serbia.
Kakvo poredjenje....
> Exactly, many Serbs nod along; wasn't it Serbian power that helped
> repel the Turks in the 14th century, and, in modern times, united a
> disparate group of ethnicities in the single Communist state of
> Yugoslavia?
Bas je ujedinjena u Komjunist stejt ov... kakav je ovo polupismeni mandril.
Cvrckovog kova.
> In Belgrade, the question is what will be left of Serbia's old
> Yugoslavia if it gives in to the demand for independence pushed by the
> majority Kosovo Albanians? It's already lost Croatia,
> Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, and Slovenia. This summer the
> international community is scheduled to review Kosovo's final status,
> while still trying to protect the rights of the Serb minority in
> Kosovo.
Kakav moron... Srbija izgubila Croatia, Bosnia, Mac... , Slo.... kakav
moron.
> One factor that will influence the willingness of either Russia or
> Serbia to grant these two chafing provinces their right to
> self-determination is the degree to which each country embraces
> democratic values like rule of law and representative government.
U je, vladavina prava i predstavnicka vlada.... to je bre civlizacijsko
pitanje... divlji Srbi end Rasns... kakav moron.
> Russia doesn't have this option. But it can itself become a regional
> influence for peace and prosperity, and do much to calm the tension in
> Chechnya and elsewhere in the Caucasus - if it were to move more
> solidly in a democratic direction of openness and tolerance. This is
> just one more reason why the West must persist in preventing a
> backsliding in Russian democracy.
Kakav divan zakljucak, skroz povezan sa sranjem do ovog dijela :-)
Tako nesto. Od 1994. je broj rodjenih (od majke Srpkinje) bio manji za
6884 od broja umrlih Srba. Medjutim, to se dalo popraviti cinjenicom da
su mnoge majke Jugoslovenke, Crnogorke, Makedonke (i drugih narodnosti
koje su pravoslavne ili nasilno izdvojene iz srpske) radjale Srpcad.
> A i nisam dobro formulisao pitanje: koji od evropskih NARODA nema
belu
> kugu osim shipaca?
Tesko je reci jer je Srbija cini mi se jedina koja godisnje belezi
statistiku za umrle po narodnosti i zivorodjene po narodnosti majke.
Drugi narodi su takve stvari zanemarili, u ime globalizacije i slicnog.
Siptari, Romi, Turci, najverovatnije. Za druge mozemo samo
pretpostaviti.
Lijepi i istinito receno, a cvrcko je kreten.
? Otkrio si Ameriku... ?
U ime asimilacije bre.
Ne, Makedonija je do 1918. bila sastavni deo Srbije. Crna Gora se posle I
sv. rata ujedinila sa Srbijom zbog ideje jedinstva juznoslovenskih naroda
i to odlukom crnogorskog parlamenta.
Bas jedinstva juznoslovenskih naroda?
Koliko se secam - da.
Gde sam pogresio?
Srpskog naroda. Vojvodina i Crna Gora su se pripojili Srbiji, tek onda je
stvarana SHS.
Da, u pravu si.
Slazem se.
No, pobjedom komunista u gradjanskom ratu, Crnoj Gori se
vraca njezin status, tako da je od 1943. ona posve
ravnopravna sa svim ostalim drzavama exSFRJ. Uostalo,
Makedonija do tada nije bila drzava, a sada je (manje-vise)
medjunarodno priznata drzava.
Pozdrav,
Tin
Makedonija to bila cak i duze.
To je jedan od razloga atentata na Aleksandra
Karadjordjevica - zahtjev VMRO za nezavisnoscu/banovinom.
| Crna Gora se posle I sv. rata ujedinila sa Srbijom zbog
| ideje jedinstva juznoslovenskih naroda i to odlukom
| crnogorskog parlamenta.
Crnogorski kralj je bio protiv, a i sastav parlamenta koji
je donio takovu odluku je po nekim izvjestajima upitan.
No, to i nije toliko bitno. Kao sto rekoh Crna Gora (i
Vojvodina) su se ujedinile sa Kraljevinom Srbijom, dok je
"ideja jedinstva juznoslovenskih naroda" tek kasnije
realizirana, a zapravo i nije funkcionirala sve do uvodjenja
diktature.
Pozdrav,
Tin