The Signs data for January 2026 is consistent with the expectations of JP Jones and me. It indicates that Earth continues to transit the Nemesis Cloud and that we'll likely see a gradual increase in trends through the first half of this year.
What really caught our attention is AR4366 (more precisely, Active Region 4366). It is a large, magnetically complex sunspot group that rotated into view in late Jan 2026 and has been acting like a flare “factory.”
It rapidly grew into a large, magnetically complex region, driving the flare surge and capable of producing CMEs; at least one CME is specifically attributed to it (the Feb 01 X8.1 event).
We view AR4366 as a significant event in our Nemesis data tracking: although it is not a once-in-a-century event, it is clearly an outlier, substantially deviating from the rest of the data.
That said, let us examine the January 2026 figures and assess the significance of AR4366 for our Nemesis research.
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