NIGERIA IN THE SHADOW of BREAK-UP PREDICTION

[Dr. Samuel Olamijulo]

Respectable Nigerians at home and abroad,the article reproduced below should  remind us all to

PLEASE DO SOMETHING FOR POSITIVE CHANGE IN NIGERIA NOW.

These should include but not limited to working to :

1. Pass and implement laws to legally empower and finance State Police NOW.
2. Pass and implement laws to empower voluntary organised security intelligence and civil defence outfits at Village, Town, State and Zonal = Regional levels NOW.
3. Pass and implement laws that ensure public accountability by public servants to Nigerian people at all levels NOW.
4. Pass and implement laws that compel public servants to pursue people security and development as first priority with resources currently available.
5. Pass and implement laws that further guarantee freedom to political, religious and other beliefs and association for ALL who live in Nigeria.
6. Pass and implement laws that compel obviously orderly free and fair future Nigerian elections at ALL levels.
7. Pass and implement laws for TRUE FEDERALISM in Nigeria NOW.
   Recognise the Six Nigerian Zones in current existence as Regional Groups of States in the Nigerian Constitution.
   Drop all discussion of and waste of precious energy on new predictably unviable states creation now.

Make Nigerian Federal Government Executive to be ALWAYS NATIONAL by including ONE nomination by the elected state assembly from each state in a smaller Federal government.

Work out New Equitable Revenue Sharing Formula to increase percentage allocation to all states for increased responsibilities.

Thank you.
From Dr Kayode Olamijulo

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http://tribune.com.ng/index.php/politics/41390--nigeria-in-the-shadow-of-break-up-prediction 

 Nigeria in the shadow of break-up prediction

Nigerian Tribune Thursday, 24 May 2012

Regional Editor (News),Olawale Rasheed, reviews the new position of Ambassador John Campbell on the 2005 American report predicting the break-up of Nigeria in 2015,concluding that the former diplomat may be up for a new game.

A recurring subject in Nigeria is an alleged prediction by the American National Intelligence Council that Nigeria will break up in 2015.That report appears credible in the reasoning of many citizens such that the current security challenges, among others, are easily attributed to a movement towards national disintegration as predicted by the NIC report entitled “Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa‘s Future“

Some analysts have even attributed Boko Haram insurgency to western creation designed to achieve the goal of the March 5, 2005 report. At least a Shitte leader had openly accused the United States of America of being the instigator of the insurgents. In hushed tones, some intellectuals had succumbed to the possibility of that prediction coming through.

A major actor during the period the report was released, Ambassador John Campbell has again revived the debate with an open denial of reports that he actually predicted the breakup of Nigeria on the strength of the NIC report. The former American Ambassador to Nigeria issued a denial seven years after the 2005 controversy debunking whatever is attributed to him of the break up reports. What prompted the denial is still cloudy.

In an unusual conduct at this critical period in Nigerian history, Campbell affirmed that “the paper did include a discussion of a possible scenario in which there might be a military coup in Nigeria, which appears to be the basis for the claim that the U.S. government predicts the breakup of Nigeria. But, the first page of the discussion paper carries a disclaimer saying “the views expressed are those of individuals and do not represent official US intelligence or policy positions. The National Intelligence Council routinely sponsors such unclassified conferences with outside experts to gain knowledge and insight to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues.

“The document was made public and posted on the internet. Then president Obasanjo sent copies of the document to members of the Nigerian senate, thereby calling attention to it. However, that the publication did not represent official U.S. policy was a point I made at the time as ambassador during Obasanjo’s tenure, and others have made it since“,he said.

In a personal touch to the whole issue, the former Ambassador noted as follows: “I personally have been accused of predicting the breakup of Nigeria. I am innocent of the charge. I have never predicted the breakup of Nigeria because I have never thought it would happen. But, were it to do so, the likely consequence would be a humanitarian disaster. U.S. policy has always been to support a united Nigeria, governed by the rule of law and through democratic institutions.“

That Campbell could issue such a disclaimer raises many questions. The man is known for his strong consistent criticisms of Nigerian government. At a time, he almost openly endorsed the candidacy of General Muhammdu Buhari.During the post election violence, he was almost endorsing the violence as a reaction to an allegedly rigged polls. When the Boko Haram violence started, the former Ambassador even launched a site to track daily violence and attacks across the country. His postings on Nigeria at a point became an irritant and he was even denied visa to visit Nigeria.

The sudden volte face of the scholar diplomat could be attributed to many factors.First, it could be that Washington has debriefed the former ambassador, leading to an attempt to set the record straight as to what he said or did not say during his time as ambassador in Nigeria. It could as well be interpreted as a ploy to put the issue of break-up in national conscience again especially going by the timing of his statements.Three, the denial of break-up story does not border on the other toxic postings of the ambassador on political situation in Nigeria.

On the sincerity of the denial, comments posted in question are very interesting. A commentator from the Northern parts of the country has this to say: “I read on this blog ambassador Cambell’s famous discourse “dancing on the brink” and on many other newspaper publications in Nigeria sometime in the past. While I cannot say with certainty that the ambassador made the prediction that Nigeria would break-up in 2015, but preponderance of opinion in the country believe in the charge against him… Nigeria to remain a united and indivisible country is in the best interest of Nigerians and US in particular, and Africa and the world in general.“

Another commentator noted as follows: “Nigeria should be like the USA, a Commonwealth of states. It is an ignorant person that will admit that Nigeria should be governed the way it has been since independence. A country’s boundary is defined by the language spoken with the next door neighbor. In Nigeria, you have many different next day neighbors speaking different languages. Hence, why should these peoples with different languages have a unitary government?

“If they all spoke a single language like in the USA or Australia, you could have an argument for a unitary rule. Even in the USA and Australia, that does not happen, hence, they have autonomy, which is what it should be in Nigeria too! Right now, the country should go autonomous and not be broken up. The system is already in place and all that needs to be done is transfer power to the regions and from the regions to the states which have been created already!

“State assets should belong to the state just as cotton, cola nuts, ground nuts, belonged to the North; cocoa to the west, and financial services to Lagos during the Self-government period! The Federal Government in the USA does not own any oil found in Texas and California. It does not own the gold in Alaska or California.

Nigeria should take a leaf from what they do in the USA and Australia otherwise there will be another civil war.“,the commentator noted.

That the two comments were approved for posting on the ambassador‘s blog was partly an indication that the denial was designed to revive debate about whether Nigeria should remain one or not. This came a day after General Muhammadu Buhari made a statement on the 2015 poll and against the background of inter faith tensions due to the Boko Haram crisis.

Whatever the intention of Campbell may be, he may well be reminded of statements on the issue of break-up by former Nigerian leader, Ibrahim Babangida. According to the former military president,“there is a doctrine known as the ”Doctrine of Nigeria’s Settled Issues” and nobody should attempt to tamper with them.  Number one, I don’t want any one of us to tamper with anything to do with Nigerian unity. Number two, the republican constitution is also a settled issue, more or less. Number three, the states are the federating units of this country and number four we are a capitalist country. Anybody that wants to talk about this country must make sure that he doesn’t do anything that will disrupt these basic settled issues in our political life.

“Anyone that is talking about dismembering this country, you should not listen to him. If we see such things as ”Christian south” and ”Muslim north”, we should disregard it. Even if such people say it, the media should ignore it because you know it is not the truth, so you should not even write it’, Babangida said.

 Babangida was only repeating the thoughts of many top leaders and ordinary citizens across the country. In fact, that statement could as well have come from the likes of General Yakubu Gowon, Theophilus Danjuma, Olusegun Obasanjo and many other prominent national leaders. It could have been uttered by those who lost dear ones fighting to keep the nation one between 1967 to 1970. President Goodluck Jonathan had subsequently repeated that line of national indivisibility. Respected jurist, Karibi Wyhte also added his voice, asserting that the nation should remain one indivisible entity. A progressive ex-military man, Abubakar Umar equally affirmed the reality of one Nigeria.

Campbell‘s denial may earn him one thing: free entry into Nigeria, having renounced alleged vow of a break-up for the country. It may however not remove an impression within the establishment that the diplomat is a consultant to the Nigerian opposition.