Re: Digest for yi-tan@googlegroups.com - 9 Messages in 1 Topic

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Michael Draznin

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Mar 17, 2012, 11:51:35 AM3/17/12
to yi-...@googlegroups.com, Jerry Michalski
Looks great Jerry. One thought, I'd like to add if you don't mind. While you're emphasizing the impact of tech, esp those that foster "automation," I wonder if the convo might also include something about the changes that occur within the population's collective sensibility organically, independent of jobs and careers that atrophy from automation? Just a thought...

Michael
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    Jerry Michalski <je...@sociate.com> Mar 16 05:05PM  

    Greetings,
     
    In 1900, many people were employed tending horses and playing in orchestras and bands. The car and the phonograph/radio were visible, but hadn't ripped their way through the global economy yet.
     
    Let's take a look at today's economy and discuss the jobs that look like they won't be around very long, as well as those that look really promising into the future.
     
    Together, let's discuss:
     
    What industries and skill classes will automation nuke?
     
    How will humans adapt? Where are the opportunities?
     
    Will new jobs show up in time for the new unemployed?
     
    Bonus: what should today's youth study?
     
    For the adventuresome: "Future of Work" in my Brain.
     
    As always, an IRC chat will be available during the call at #yitan.
     
    We tweet as @yitan (and use #yitan as our hashtag). Please follow us on Twitter. This page is on the web here.
     
    Date: Monday, 2012-03-19
     
    Time: 10:30am Pacific, 1:30pm Eastern
     
    Dial: 1-626-677-3000, passcode 778778
     
    See all the Yi-Tan calls in the weekly call archive or listen to the edited podcasts on the Blog. You can also listen to the shorter call summaries there.
     
    Please feel free to forward this note to people you think would be interested in these calls. (To unsubscribe, just reply to me and I'll be happy to do so.)
     
    Talk to you on the call!
     
    Bestest,
     
    Jerry

     

    Martin Focazio <mar...@gmail.com> Mar 16 02:02PM -0400  

    Oh, how much I wish I could participate in this, however, I'll be at a
    client kickoff meeting that directly overlaps this call. I'll take
    advantage of the fact that I can email in comments ahead of the call to
    state the following:
     
    - Automation can, will and does eradicate work in ALL skill classes and
    industries. There will be robots hanging sheetrock as sure as we don't have
    "typing pools" anymore.
     
    - Eradication of work does not mean what is was supposed to mean when I was
    a kid - an increase in leisure time. Humans will adapt by looking for
    "work" not "jobs" or "careers".
     
    - Automation coupled with highly skilled knowledge workers = productivity &
    profit increases for companies, nothing more.
     
    - I personally think that "jobs" won't be what most people have in the
    future, companies will act much more like agencies, a small core of
    owner/employees surrounded by a collection of contract and subcontract
    labor that grows and shrinks rapidly. "Job Security" will mean a place to
    lock up your stuff while at the factory.
     
     
     

     

    Bill Anderson <wland...@gmail.com> Mar 16 01:30PM -0500  

    Martin, I think you are on to something here. I am also concerned that
    there will not be enough "work" (however defined) to go around. How
    will those without "work" survive?
     
    Will we all share work?
     
    Bill
     

     

    Drummond Reed <drum...@connect.me> Mar 16 01:53PM -0700  

    I too have a conflict for the call, but I wish I could make it as I am
    spending more and more time thinking about this relative to what we are
    doing at Connect.Me and Respect Network. One of our aims is to provide
    infrastructure for the knowledge economy, so that you can easily attract
    work based on your reputation and interests and intersections, and also
    publish/subscribe to the intents of others either seeking workers or
    seeking work.
     
    I believe a robust and trusted intent network can become an enormous new
    factor driving the knowledge economy in particular and the overall economy
    in general. It will change the nature of work - making it more fluid and
    dynamic - but it will also tap large new aquifers of creativity, synergy,
    and productivity.
     
    =Drummond
     

     

    "John David Smith" <john....@learningalliances.net> Mar 16 04:06PM -0700  

    It might help inform our discussion if we took a moment to consult Wikipedia
    before fretting on Monday about whether there will be enough "work":
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy The Lump of Labor
    fallacy is one of the most persistent beliefs, even though I find it hard to
    believe it.
     

     
    John
     
    * John David Smith ~ Voice: 503.963.8229 ~ Skype & Twitter: smithjd
     
    * Portland, Oregon, USA http://www.learningAlliances.net
     
    * "Even great art is lost without a buyer." -- Lenny Greenberg
     

     
    From: yi-...@googlegroups.com [mailto:yi-...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of
    Drummond Reed
    Sent: Friday, March 16, 2012 1:54 PM
    To: yi-...@googlegroups.com
    Subject: Re: Yi-Tan Tech Community Call #363 - Jobs Past and Future - 1:30pm
    Eastern, Monday 2012-03-19
     

     
    I too have a conflict for the call, but I wish I could make it as I am
    spending more and more time thinking about this relative to what we are
    doing at Connect.Me and Respect Network. One of our aims is to provide
    infrastructure for the knowledge economy, so that you can easily attract
    work based on your reputation and interests and intersections, and also
    publish/subscribe to the intents of others either seeking workers or seeking
    work.
     
    I believe a robust and trusted intent network can become an enormous new
    factor driving the knowledge economy in particular and the overall economy
    in general. It will change the nature of work - making it more fluid and
    dynamic - but it will also tap large new aquifers of creativity, synergy,
    and productivity.
     
    =Drummond
     
    On Fri, Mar 16, 2012 at 11:30 AM, Bill Anderson <wland...@gmail.com>
    wrote:
     
    Martin, I think you are on to something here. I am also concerned that
    there will not be enough "work" (however defined) to go around. How
    will those without "work" survive?
     
    Will we all share work?
     
    Bill
     
     
    > Oh, how much I wish I could participate in this, however, I'll be at a
    > client kickoff meeting that directly overlaps this call. I'll take
    advantage
    > following:
     
    > - Automation can, will and does eradicate work in ALL skill classes and
    > industries. There will be robots hanging sheetrock as sure as we don't
    have
    > "typing pools" anymore.
     
    > - Eradication of work does not mean what is was supposed to mean when I
    was
    > a kid - an increase in leisure time. Humans will adapt by looking for
    "work"
    > not "jobs" or "careers".
     
    > - Automation coupled with highly skilled knowledge workers = productivity
    &
     
    > - I personally think that "jobs" won't be what most people have in the
    > future, companies will act much more like agencies, a small core of
    > owner/employees surrounded by a collection of contract and subcontract
    labor
    > that grows and shrinks rapidly. "Job Security" will mean a place to lock
    up
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    Jerry Michalski <je...@sociate.com> Mar 16 04:53PM -0700  

    John: thank goodness Wikipedia's got the answer. Thanks for pointing us to
    yet another useful fallacy (which, strangely, was already in my Brain but
    I'd forgotten about).
     
    Drummond: yes! I'm eager to use Connect.me as infrastructure for just these
    sorts of things. Months to API? :)
     
    Marty: thanks for the insightful comments, particularly that extra
    productivity accrues to corporate profits, but seldom elsewhere (like to
    workers as $$ or leisure).
     
    Should be a fun call.
     
    Cheers,
    Jerry
     
     
     
    On Fri, Mar 16, 2012 at 4:06 PM, John David Smith <

     

    Drummond Reed <drum...@connect.me> Mar 16 06:20PM -0700  

    > I'd forgotten about).
     
    > Drummond: yes! I'm eager to use Connect.me as infrastructure for just
    > these sorts of things. Months to API? :)
     
    May for direct partners; Sept for public access. Can't wait!
     
    =Drummond
     
     

     

    Bill Anderson <wland...@gmail.com> Mar 16 08:51PM -0500  

    John, thanks for the link. And while I am relieved to know that my
    naive worry is unfounded, I am somehow still uneasy. I have some
    homework to do.
     
    Bill
     
    On Fri, Mar 16, 2012 at 6:06 PM, John David Smith

     

    "John David Smith" <john....@learningalliances.net> Mar 16 09:59PM -0700  

    Thinking about this more, facing the supposed wisdom of Wikipedia, etc. I
    think economies ARE inefficient or incompetent at making new jobs, of
    recognizing new needs, of finding ways to meet needs. Conversely societies
    are capable of inventing problematic or perverse needs that launch whole new
    industries. Just because there ARE enough jobs doesn't mean that a society
    is healthy.
     
    AND I think that the lump of labor is a fallacy over some longer term -- but
    we never know what term and we never know what the logjams are. So it IS
    appropriate to be uneasy. But we have to be as careful as possible about
    where our unease focuses.
     
    It should be a good call! Thanks Jerry for posing such a good question.
    You are a social artist of the first magnitude. For more on social
    artistry, see:
     
    http://cpsquare.org/2012/03/workshop-schedule-social-artistry-and-hacking-v-
    stacking/
     
    John
    * John David Smith ~ Voice: 503.963.8229 ~ Skype & Twitter: smithjd
    * Portland, Oregon, USA http://www.learningAlliances.net
    * "Even great art is lost without a buyer." -- Lenny Greenberg
     
     
    -----Original Message-----
    From: yi-...@googlegroups.com [mailto:yi-...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of
    Bill Anderson
    Sent: Friday, March 16, 2012 6:51 PM
    To: yi-...@googlegroups.com
    Subject: Re: Yi-Tan Tech Community Call #363 - Jobs Past and Future - 1:30pm
    Eastern, Monday 2012-03-19
     
    John, thanks for the link. And while I am relieved to know that my
    naive worry is unfounded, I am somehow still uneasy. I have some
    homework to do.
     
    Bill
     
    On Fri, Mar 16, 2012 at 6:06 PM, John David Smith
    > It might help inform our discussion if we took a moment to consult
    Wikipedia
    > before fretting on Monday about whether there will be enough “work”:
    > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy  The Lump of Labor
    > fallacy is one of the most persistent beliefs, even though I find it hard
    to
     
    > * Portland, Oregon, USA http://www.learningAlliances.net
     
    > * "Even great art is lost without a buyer." -- Lenny Greenberg
     
    > From: yi-...@googlegroups.com [mailto:yi-...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf
    Of
    > Sent: Friday, March 16, 2012 1:54 PM
    > To: yi-...@googlegroups.com
    > Subject: Re: Yi-Tan Tech Community Call #363 - Jobs Past and Future -
    1:30pm
    > infrastructure for the knowledge economy, so that you can easily attract
    > work based on your reputation and interests and intersections, and also
    > publish/subscribe to the intents of others either seeking workers or
    seeking
     
    >>> Jerry
     
    >>> --
    >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google
    Groups
     
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Jerry Michalski

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Mar 17, 2012, 11:58:42 AM3/17/12
to yi-...@googlegroups.com, Michael Draznin
Michael, can you say just a bit more? An example or two? I like where you're going, but could use more texture. 

Cheers,
Jerry
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