Highlights
- EURUSD - Wave V Targeting 1.3900 Into NFP
- EURGBP Ending Diagonal Complete - Wave II Targeting 0.9100
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| Thursday, January 8, 2009 - New York Closing Update -
4:45 PM EST Please look below for tonight's updates for
EURUSD and EURGBP.
To begin the new year, I am going to experiment with
slightly different formatting. For each trade idea or market
observation, I will drop the subsequent follow up charts below
the original market analysis to show continuity. In other
words, this report does not read in chronological order, so
please poke around. Also feel free to send feedback about this
new format. Thanks for reading and best of luck to us all! TG.
I am also going to introduce a new feature of SOTD heading
into 2009. Much like the original wave annotations introduced
by Ralph Elliott in the early 20th century, I am going to
introduce a standardized labeling procedure custom to SOTD.
This will allow you the reader to quickly identify the
location and degree of my Elliott wave counts on the charts.
As you can see on the chart below, I have listed 9 possible
degrees of wave counts and the corresponding chart time frame
that is likely to use a particular annotation. Now obviously
you will not see just one degree of wave annotations on any
chart. My purpose within this framework is to align a certain
degree wave annotation with the primary price trend on a given
chart. For example, if you see a blue underlined roman numeral
labeling, the price move I am studying is probably best viewed
on either a 30 or 45 min timeframe. Once you see black Arabic
numeral labels, the move is probably best seen on either a 60
or 90 min chart. Now I cannot immediately make the switch over
to our standardized labeling system as I have year's worth of
charts labeled in the old manner. But I will be making the
transition to our new system every day. I would recommend you
print out this reference table and keep it handy for future
editions of SOTD. Best of luck to us in the New Year! TG.
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| *EURUSD Update* - Wednesday, January 07, 2009 - New
York Update - 12:00 PM EST EURUSD did in fact break higher
from triangle wave (iv) resistance, but wave (v) did not
travel the full distance. From there, EURUSD pulled back down
to 1.3431 at 8:15 PM EST in wave ii before moving
quickly higher in wave iii in the overnight session. So
now, we seem to be dancing around in wave iv with
downside support at 1.3580-1.3600. We should expect one more
push to a new high above 1.3800 in wave v before a
meaningful correction in wave 2 begins. |
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| *EURUSD 2nd Update* - Wednesday, January 07, 2009 -
Asian Update - 5:15 PM EST EURUSD looks to have completed
a flat correction in wave iv from this morning's
1.3580-1.3600 support and is poised to move higher in wave
v targeting the final upside level of 1.3820. Long can
be established between 1.3630 and 1.3600 with stops below
1.3575. |
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| *EURUSD 3rd UPDATE* Thursday, January 8, 2009 - New
York Closing Update - 4:45 PM EST Our EURUSD trade was
stopped last night as our pullback entry to ride wave v
higher reversed and became a simple (x) wave, which makes the
blue wave iv a complex correction. Wave v did
eventually get underway this morning just after the London
open at 3:38 AM EST.
So now, we seem to be trading in wave (iv)-of-v
targeting a move towards 1.3900 heading into tomorrow
morning's NFP. Back tomorrow morning. TG. |
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| *EURGBP UPDATE NEW WAVE COUNT * Thursday, January 8,
2009 - New York Closing Update - 4:45 PM EST I am working
a new EURGBP count that puts us in an ending diagonal to
complete wave I. We look to have completed wave
A-of-II, currently moving lower in
B-of-II that should ideally hold above 0.8930,
before C-of-II puts us back above 0.9100 heading
into tomorrow's 8:30 NFP. I think EURUSD will have a better
upside response to a poor NFP number than GBPUSD, so the
EURGBP cross should benefit. I will be looking to buy a half
unit of EURGBP on a pullback to 0.8975 with stops just below
0.8950. Please note this was changed from 0.8960 immediately
after publishing. Take profit remains open. |
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