Highlights
- EURUSD Shorts Missed - Watching 1.2930 Resistance
- US Dollar 85.50 Support Test Pending, EURUSD 1.3000 Resistance
- 1.3000, 1.2450 EURUSD Range Persists
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| Tuesday, December 09, 2008 - New York Update - 11:30 PM EST
The first of our orders to get short EURUSD missed by just 4
pips before dropping 170 pips in the overnight session. I was not a
happy camper this morning, but at least my analysis was accurate.
Breath in, breath out, move on.
So if in fact the triangle completed on day 30, we are now in
wave (V) lower that should take us to new lows. I can count 5 waves
down off the highs to complete wave 1 and then 3 waves up in
wave 2. This wave 2 is a bit funky as it appears to be
an expanded flat with a subdivisions of 3-3-5. The c-wave is
unusually large as it took us considerably above the a-wave high of
1.2892 and into the .707 retracement of wave 1 at 1.2916. So
going forward if this is to remain the preferred count EURUSD should
ideally remain below the .786 retracement at 1.2930.
Aside from the outsized c-wave, I am also nervous about equity
market strength in response to the huge government spending
initiatives that is driving equities and euro higher. Should the
S&P 500 recapture 890 from the topside, my confidence in this
EURUSD wave count will increase. I am short a half unit of EURUSD at
1.2910 with stops at 1.2940. Back tonight. TG. |
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| Monday, December 8, 2008 - New York Update - 1:15 PM EST
In response to a favorable outlook for passage of an auto maker
bailout and President-Elect Obama's promise to “spend” our way of
the trouble, equities and commodities are higher on the session. And
as we would expect, the dollar is lower and the US treasury markets
are floating around unchanged on the session. But exactly how low
does the dollar go today on his healthier risk appetite? SOTD
readers know we have been tracking this now 30-day long
consolidation in the US Dollar. But in the next 24 to 36 hrs
however, I believe we are setting up for a critical test of support
that could end this month-long consolidation. The US Dollar index is
currently trading 85.82, just 0.30 points above my targeted support
level of 85.50. Should the US Dollar index hold 85.50 I will be
looking to be long dollars and short Euros.
My EURUSD target sell zone to complete wave e-of-(IV) is 1.2965
and 1.2985. In half unit increments, I will look to get short 2
units beginning at 1.2970,80,90, and 1.3000 with stops for
everything at 1.3025. Take profits remain open for now. TG.
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| Friday, December 5, 2008-New York Session Close- 3:30 PM EST
Well, what can we say. Nobody expected a loss of 533k jobs, and
even if we did expect a loss of 533k, nobody expected the equity
markets to be up 3.73% on the worst jobs data since 1974. May we
live in interesting times.
The fact remains that we are still very much caught up in this
29-day old range. Topside resistance falls in at around 1.3000,
downside support falls in at around 1.2450, and while we're stuck in
this range we have no choice but to be the lunch meat in this
range-bound sandwich. Our goal as lunch meat is to not get chopped
up before the range breaks, which is accomplished by trading
lightly. And so long as the range persists, we will continue to
tread lightly. If and when we do break to the downside, we're all
over the 1.1500 target into year's end. TG. |
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