Dear All,
My first post....I am delighted to see the response/messages with
different views on this group site.
I think most of the people here (Plz pardon me for honesty) are first
time buyer or " certified unsuccessful applicant"(like me) in other
scheme floated by authorities in NCR.
Now as we got these allotments so we are over existed & jumping/
praising each other.We all are thinking that th price automatically
will become 15000/25000 Rs/ sq m & we will be making a "killing" by
taking these cash in our accounts....thought wonderful!! but keep our
feets on ground.......
My views are as follows:
1) The allotte should have focus /time horizon of 10-15 yrs to reach
the above level of pricing ( 15000-2000/sq mt.).The rationale si very
simple-
please undrstand that land prices in any are is drven by the
"commercial/Office" activities around it.....Gurgaon is live
example...Why land/flat is Gurgaon is so high even it has almost "NIL"
infrastructure as compare to NOIDA....Simple DLF frist made the
offices in Gurgaon ( not the basis infrastructure)...with offices
people moved in Gurgaon...What is that status of NOIDA/Greater
Noida????..Net net No one is going to Stay in GNOIDA/YIEDA unless he/
she is having office nearby...wILL YOU LIKE TO STAY ION YOUR PLOT &
LOVE TO TRAVEL TO NEW DELHI/GURGAON FOR YOUR JOBS??? IF YOUR ANSWER IS
YES THEN OF COURSE YOU CAN EXPECT THE RETURNS AFTER 4 YEARS( AT THE
POSSESSION TIME)
2) The problem with NOIDA/GNOIDA is only one - That no Big Builder
like DLF/Unitech got bullish on these places as they are not having
"large Land parcel" in NOIDA/GNOIDA area...Unitech despite of holding
300 acres of prime land on Noida Expressway has not launched
commercial projects (of course they launched unitech grande which was
victim of slump) in the area...Please note that around 20% of the land
bank which unitech is having right now belongs to Noida/Greater Noida
despite of that they prefer to launch the projects in Gurgaon...(see
the project launches in last Six Months by
unitec..Sunbreeze,Vista,Nirvana - II)........So net Net there is no
organise player (Except JP who is first time trying to get the taste
of real estate flavor)...Moreover JP is only interest (as of Now) in
selling the residential projects... I don't know why no organised
player is launching BIG OFFICE space........Even if the offices are
not completely sold at GNOIDA...so expecting that YIEDA will be having
everything in next 4-5 years is according to me is a "Myth".
3) Perception of UP factor........law & order...always will be a
discunng factor......
These are my preiminary thoughts (Please note I also got a plot 500 sq
mts in pocket U,sector - 20 park facing )... it 's not the frustration
or any thing is my mind....But i always prefer to be realistic instead
of creation of "imaginary" dream world......My final take is.....After
January 17,2010 (after payment of allotment money & by the Auguts/
September 2010) there will be more seller then taker as "Initial
trading gain fever" will be over so prices may fall even below the
allotment prices... as some one who need "liquidity" may go for
desprete sell......
But if the time horizon is 15 years then definitely things will be
more concrete by that time...........So enjoy a though that you bought
a land in NCR @ Rs. 442/sq ft which is dam cheap in comparision to
land prices of tier II city like Jaipur/Indore/Bhopal..etc. So in Rs.
442/ sq ft... But it will take at least a decade for turningog the
fortunes......so just enjoy the good feeling!!!