Hello all --
Before we meet tomorrow, Jack and I want to give you our take on the
Cohousing Proposal Andrew submitted just before Thanksgiving.
In this report on the analysis of the proposal we are starting from the position that Andrew is:
1. A stand up guy
2. An expert in his business and in the market
3. A straight talker
Andrew
believes the budget shows this project to be about 30% out of line w/
the market in Mt. Airy. Andrew's main concern is that the project may
not appraise. And ... even if it did appraise, future resales would be
very difficult if not impossible. He believes the loan to value ratio
to be untenable.
After analyzing the budget Andrew submitted,
Jack does not see that there is any outstanding number or break out
cost(s) for this project design which could lower the cost 30%. (A
like-kind facility recently priced here in DC also ran around $150-175
/sf hard costs)
I concur.
Even if you could convince
Andrew that you could raise the initial money it seems clear that
he doesn't believe this is a viable project for this property.
However
...the VERY good news is ... he does remain interested in cohousing
and suggests two alternatives: renovate a warehouse or convert an
existing apartment building.
What next? Here are some possibilities.
1. Have Onion Flats take a look at the budget Andrew submitted and check the numbers. (Another pair of fresh eyes.)
2.
Radically alter the current design plan to the basic apartment
building design that was the least expensive of the three designs
covered at the workshop weekend. (Basic does NOT mean unattractive!)
Not 100% sure this would gain the 30% needed but it could be close. This would be a good question to put to Andrew.
3. Buy the land outright from Andrew for $1.2 million (minimum!)
4. Follow up with Andrew up on his implied interest in another, more appropriate site.
This
is the place where the group needs to make deep choices. Is it of
supreme importance that the community is built at this site or is it
possible to create your community at another site? What's working in
your favor is having someone w/ intimate knowledge of the Philly area
who seems interested and who might very well do a site search for
you.
Priceless.
We know you are disappointed and maybe
very frustrated. It's hard to get this kind of news. And yet, it's
also very positive. Andrew wants to prevent a failed project AND he
wants to stay involved.
We suggest that we (Jack and Ann) and Abby talk w/ Andrew ASAP.
Let's
not lose momentum. Keep moving forward. You will have your cohousing
community -- it just may not be at this particular site but you will
have it if you stay on the critical path.
It will happen -- it's just a change in venue -- not in your community.
Talk to you on Thursday at Noon via Vanessa's conference line.
Onward!
Best --
Ann Zabaldo
Takoma Village Cohousing
Washington, DC
Principal, Cohousing Collaborative, LLC
Falls Church VA
703-688-2646