The Economist cover story: The failed coup in Turkey
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avinash shahi
Jul 23, 2016, 5:23:45 AM7/23/16
to worldopinion
MUCH is unknown about the attempted military coup in Turkey on the
night of July 15th. Why was it botched so badly? How far up the ranks
did the conspiracy reach? Were the putschists old-style secularists,
as their initial communiqué suggested; or were they followers of an
exiled Islamist cleric, Fethullah Gulen, as the government claims?
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21702465-turkeys-president-destroying-democracy-turks-risked-their-lives-defend-erdogans
But two things are clear. First, the people of Turkey showed great
bravery in coming out onto the streets to confront the soldiers;
hundreds died (see article here and here). Opposition parties, no
matter how much they may despise President Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
united to denounce the assault on democracy. Better the flawed,
Islamist-tinged strongman than the return of the generals for the
fifth time since the 1960s.
The second, more alarming conclusion is that Mr Erdogan is fast
destroying the very democracy that the people defended with their
lives. He has declared a state of emergency that will last at least
three months. About 6,000 soldiers have been arrested; thousands more
policemen, prosecutors and judges have been sacked or suspended. So
have academics, teachers and civil servants, though there is little
sign they had anything to do with the coup. Secularists, Kurds and
other minorities feel intimidated by Mr Erdogan’s loyalists on the
streets.
The purge is so deep and so wide—affecting at least 60,000 people—that
some compare it to America’s disastrous de-Baathification of Iraq. It
goes far beyond the need to preserve the security of the state. Mr
Erdogan conflates dissent with treachery; he is staging his own coup
against Turkish pluralism. Unrestrained, he will lead his country to
more conflict and chaos. And that, in turn, poses a serious danger to
Turkey’s neighbours, to Europe and to the West.
One more earthquake
The failed putsch may well become the third shock to Europe’s
post-1989 order. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern
Ukraine in 2014 destroyed the idea that Europe’s borders were fixed
and that the cold war was over. The Brexit referendum last month
shattered the notion of ineluctable integration in the European Union.
Now the coup attempt in Turkey, and the reaction to it, raise
troubling questions about the reversibility of democracy within the
Western world—which Turkey, though on its fringe, once seemed destined
to join.
The turmoil is unsettling NATO, the military alliance that underpins
Europe’s democracies. Without evidence, Mr Erdogan’s ministers blame
America for the coup; they have demanded that it extradite Mr Gulen,
who lives in Pennsylvania, or risk Turkey turning its back on the
West. Electricity to the military base at Incirlik, a hub of
American-led air operations against Islamic State (IS), was cut off
for a time. Were Turkey an applicant today, it would struggle to
qualify for NATO; yet the alliance has no means to expel a member that
goes bad.
With the second-largest armed forces in NATO, Turkey has been the
forward bastion of the West, first against Soviet totalitarianism and
then against the chaos of the Middle East. In the early years of
government under Mr Erdogan’s Justice and Development (AK) party, the
country became the model of a prospering, stable Muslim democracy. It
sought peace with the Kurdish minority, and the economy grew healthily
thanks to sensible reforms. The EU opened membership negotiations with
Turkey in 2005.
But since major protests in 2013 against plans to build over Gezi Park
in Istanbul, and then a corruption scandal, Mr Erdogan has become ever
more autocratic. His regime has jailed journalists, eviscerated the
army and cowed the judiciary, all in the name of rooting out the
“parallel state” Mr Erdogan claims the Gulenists have built. As a
cheerleader for the overthrow of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad,
he turned a blind eye to the passage of jihadists through Turkey. Mr
Erdogan wants a new constitution to allow himself to become an
executive president, though he hardly lacks power. He has abandoned
all caution to achieve it, not least by letting peace talks with the
Kurds break down. Turkey now faces a double insurgency: by the Kurds
and the jihadists.
Autocrats R Us
Handled more wisely, the failure of the coup might have been the dying
kick of Turkey’s militarists. Mr Erdogan could have become the
magnanimous unifier of a divided nation, unmuzzling the press,
restarting peace talks with Kurds and building lasting, independent
institutions. Instead he is falling into paranoid intolerance: more
like the Arab despots he claims to despise than the democratic
statesman he might have become.
Eroding Erdogan's power: Our guide to Turkey's general elections
Granted, the AK party has won every election since 2002. But Mr
Erdogan’s view of democracy is distinctly majoritarian: though only
about half of Turks vote for him, he thinks he can do what he wants.
It will be principally for Turks themselves to check their president,
by peacefully resisting his power grabs and backing his opponents at
the ballot box.
Turkey’s Western friends must urge Mr Erdogan to exercise restraint
and respect the law. But what if he will not listen? Turkey is a vital
ally in the war against IS. It controls the south-eastern approaches
to Europe, and therefore the flow of everything from natural gas to
Syrian refugees. Europe cannot change geography, but it can make
itself less vulnerable, starting with a proper system to control the
EU’s external frontiers and handle asylum-seekers. And although Mr
Erdogan holds many cards, he is not immune from pressure. Just before
the coup he patched up relations with Israel and Russia.
Mr Erdogan’s greatest success—the economy—has become his weak point.
Many tourists are now too frightened to visit, so the current-account
deficit will only gape wider. To stay afloat the country needs foreign
investment and loans, so it must reassure foreigners that it is
stable. With Mr Erdogan acting like a vengeful sultan, that will be
hard.
The repercussions of the putsch will be felt for a long time. The
coup-makers killed many fellow Turks, discredited the army, weakened
its ability to protect the frontier and fight terrorists, rattled NATO
and removed the restraints on an autocratic president. A terrible toll
for a night of power-lust.
--
Avinash Shahi
Doctoral student at Centre for Law and Governance JNU
night of July 15th. Why was it botched so badly? How far up the ranks
did the conspiracy reach? Were the putschists old-style secularists,
as their initial communiqué suggested; or were they followers of an
exiled Islamist cleric, Fethullah Gulen, as the government claims?
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21702465-turkeys-president-destroying-democracy-turks-risked-their-lives-defend-erdogans
But two things are clear. First, the people of Turkey showed great
bravery in coming out onto the streets to confront the soldiers;
hundreds died (see article here and here). Opposition parties, no
matter how much they may despise President Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
united to denounce the assault on democracy. Better the flawed,
Islamist-tinged strongman than the return of the generals for the
fifth time since the 1960s.
The second, more alarming conclusion is that Mr Erdogan is fast
destroying the very democracy that the people defended with their
lives. He has declared a state of emergency that will last at least
three months. About 6,000 soldiers have been arrested; thousands more
policemen, prosecutors and judges have been sacked or suspended. So
have academics, teachers and civil servants, though there is little
sign they had anything to do with the coup. Secularists, Kurds and
other minorities feel intimidated by Mr Erdogan’s loyalists on the
streets.
The purge is so deep and so wide—affecting at least 60,000 people—that
some compare it to America’s disastrous de-Baathification of Iraq. It
goes far beyond the need to preserve the security of the state. Mr
Erdogan conflates dissent with treachery; he is staging his own coup
against Turkish pluralism. Unrestrained, he will lead his country to
more conflict and chaos. And that, in turn, poses a serious danger to
Turkey’s neighbours, to Europe and to the West.
One more earthquake
The failed putsch may well become the third shock to Europe’s
post-1989 order. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern
Ukraine in 2014 destroyed the idea that Europe’s borders were fixed
and that the cold war was over. The Brexit referendum last month
shattered the notion of ineluctable integration in the European Union.
Now the coup attempt in Turkey, and the reaction to it, raise
troubling questions about the reversibility of democracy within the
Western world—which Turkey, though on its fringe, once seemed destined
to join.
The turmoil is unsettling NATO, the military alliance that underpins
Europe’s democracies. Without evidence, Mr Erdogan’s ministers blame
America for the coup; they have demanded that it extradite Mr Gulen,
who lives in Pennsylvania, or risk Turkey turning its back on the
West. Electricity to the military base at Incirlik, a hub of
American-led air operations against Islamic State (IS), was cut off
for a time. Were Turkey an applicant today, it would struggle to
qualify for NATO; yet the alliance has no means to expel a member that
goes bad.
With the second-largest armed forces in NATO, Turkey has been the
forward bastion of the West, first against Soviet totalitarianism and
then against the chaos of the Middle East. In the early years of
government under Mr Erdogan’s Justice and Development (AK) party, the
country became the model of a prospering, stable Muslim democracy. It
sought peace with the Kurdish minority, and the economy grew healthily
thanks to sensible reforms. The EU opened membership negotiations with
Turkey in 2005.
But since major protests in 2013 against plans to build over Gezi Park
in Istanbul, and then a corruption scandal, Mr Erdogan has become ever
more autocratic. His regime has jailed journalists, eviscerated the
army and cowed the judiciary, all in the name of rooting out the
“parallel state” Mr Erdogan claims the Gulenists have built. As a
cheerleader for the overthrow of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad,
he turned a blind eye to the passage of jihadists through Turkey. Mr
Erdogan wants a new constitution to allow himself to become an
executive president, though he hardly lacks power. He has abandoned
all caution to achieve it, not least by letting peace talks with the
Kurds break down. Turkey now faces a double insurgency: by the Kurds
and the jihadists.
Autocrats R Us
Handled more wisely, the failure of the coup might have been the dying
kick of Turkey’s militarists. Mr Erdogan could have become the
magnanimous unifier of a divided nation, unmuzzling the press,
restarting peace talks with Kurds and building lasting, independent
institutions. Instead he is falling into paranoid intolerance: more
like the Arab despots he claims to despise than the democratic
statesman he might have become.
Eroding Erdogan's power: Our guide to Turkey's general elections
Granted, the AK party has won every election since 2002. But Mr
Erdogan’s view of democracy is distinctly majoritarian: though only
about half of Turks vote for him, he thinks he can do what he wants.
It will be principally for Turks themselves to check their president,
by peacefully resisting his power grabs and backing his opponents at
the ballot box.
Turkey’s Western friends must urge Mr Erdogan to exercise restraint
and respect the law. But what if he will not listen? Turkey is a vital
ally in the war against IS. It controls the south-eastern approaches
to Europe, and therefore the flow of everything from natural gas to
Syrian refugees. Europe cannot change geography, but it can make
itself less vulnerable, starting with a proper system to control the
EU’s external frontiers and handle asylum-seekers. And although Mr
Erdogan holds many cards, he is not immune from pressure. Just before
the coup he patched up relations with Israel and Russia.
Mr Erdogan’s greatest success—the economy—has become his weak point.
Many tourists are now too frightened to visit, so the current-account
deficit will only gape wider. To stay afloat the country needs foreign
investment and loans, so it must reassure foreigners that it is
stable. With Mr Erdogan acting like a vengeful sultan, that will be
hard.
The repercussions of the putsch will be felt for a long time. The
coup-makers killed many fellow Turks, discredited the army, weakened
its ability to protect the frontier and fight terrorists, rattled NATO
and removed the restraints on an autocratic president. A terrible toll
for a night of power-lust.
--
Avinash Shahi
Doctoral student at Centre for Law and Governance JNU
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