|
|
|
Economic Research from the New York Fed: Dec. 1-12
|
DATA RELEASES
 |
|
New York Fed Staff Nowcast: The 2025:Q4 estimate currently stands at 1.8%, up 0.1 percentage point on positive surprises from exports and JOLTS data. (Dec. 12) |
 |
|
Survey of Consumer Expectations: The November survey showed that median inflation expectations were unchanged at the one-, three-, and five-year-ahead horizons. Perceptions about households’ current financial situation deteriorated notably. (Dec. 8) |
 STAFF RESEARCH
 |
|
Working Paper: Less for You, More for Me: Credit Reallocation and Rationing Under Usury Limits
Rajashri Chakrabarti, Daniel Garcia, Donald Morgan, and Lee Seltzer
Many states have capped consumer loan interest rates to protect households from high-cost lenders. Studying three states that capped rates, the authors investigate how these usury limits affect the availability and allocation of credit across households… |
 |
|
Liberty Street Economics: The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2025
Marco Del Negro, Ibrahima Diagne, Keshav Dogra, Elena Elbarmi, Donggyu Lee, and Michael Pham
The December update of the New York Fed’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model points to stronger growth in 2025 than was expected in September due to a lower projected path of the policy rate, as well as higher productivity… |
|
 |
|
Event: The Economic Implications of Heightened Uncertainty
A recent symposium organized by the New York Fed’s Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC) focused on the implications of heightened uncertainty for trade, financial markets, and the macroeconomy. A video replay is available. |
Subscribe now to continue receiving this twice-monthly newsletter.
Note: This edition of The Aggregate reflects the limited publishing schedule in place during the blackout period surrounding the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
For more, visit New York Fed Economic Research.
|
|
|
|
