Presidential Election in the Russian Federation and the Volga-Ural Diaspora
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Säğit Xäyri
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Mar 5, 2012, 3:07:41 AM3/5/12
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to Milli Maksat, world-an...@googlegroups.com
Presidential Election in the Russian Federation and the Volga-Ural Diaspora
Today, Sunday March 4, 2012, voters in the Russian Federation will be
going to the polls to elect a new president. As anyone who has followed
the international press is aware, the name of the “candidate” who will
win is already known: the former president and sitting prime minister
Vladimir Putin. Recent legislative changes allow him a six-year
presidential term, with the possibility of being reelected for another
six-year term.
The West had favored the actual president,
Dmitry Medvedev, who is younger and who appears more cultured and
analytically minded, more liberal and less “rigid”; and had hoped he
would put forward his candidacy. However, when he bowed out last summer
in favor of Putin, without having put into application any of the
democratization measures he had been advocating, he turned out to have
been a mere presidential dummy. He seems to have already been relegated
to the relevant footnote in history.
Bar a totally unexpected
event, Putin, who will be sixty in October 2012, will be elected the
next president of the Russian Federation. However, what may follow next
is uncertain. It looks as if demonstrations such as those of 2011
protesting the results of the parliamentary elections, alleged to have
been rigged, will take place after the presidential election also. Some
likened the protests to those of the “Arab spring” and Putin himself
accused the USA of being behind them. One view, held by some observers,
upholds that the economy of the Russian Federation is indexed solely to
the high price of oil and gas, in other words, that it is dependent
solely on natural resources; and that, therefore, its future collapse,
or helping bring about its collapse as it was done during Gorbachev, is
not that improbable. Such an eventuality would of course trigger both
short- and long-term changes. Observers predict that the most long-term,
the most radical change would be the dissolution of the Russian
Federation, just like that of the Soviet Union.
The election
concerns all our compatriots in the Volga-Ural: first of all,
administratively speaking Putin will be their president also. One must
not forget that at present the presidents of the autonomous republics
are appointed; their position is basically that of a regional governor.
Thus, the highest administrative authority in the lives of our
compatriots will be Putin. His photograph will be displayed alongside
those of the presidents of the autonomous republics in government
buildings, and decrees of prime importance will bear his signature. Some
of these decrees will affect directly the lives of our compatriots.
Thus, Putin's reelection should concern all of us in the diaspora. Let
us not forget that resolutions taken in the Russian Federation affect us
as well: for example, citizens of the Republic of Turkey are not at all
unhappy to be able to land on Volga-Ural soil without any visa.
Yet, what may happen after the election is a totally different matter.
No observer predicts that peace and quiet will reign in the Russian
Federation during the next twelve years. Will the administration lend an
ear to what has been articulated during the protests and start on
reforms, or will it decide to crush all demonstrations, at the cost of
shedding blood if necessary? Only time will show. However, envisaging a
number of structural changes in the Russian Federation, whether as a
result of blood shedding or not, in the not too distant a future, may
not be pure fantasy. Small signs, that appear inconsequential on their
own, when added lead one to believe that such a probability is not that
farfetched; and compel one to reflect on the probable nature and
dimensions of such a development. This would of course affect our
compatriots directly and profoundly. That is why also Putin's reelection
concerns us in the diaspora.
As members of the diaspora—both
of the inner diaspora living outside of the Volga-Ural yet within the
Russian Federation, and of the external diaspora living abroad—we need
to follow closely this election, and especially its aftermath, apt to
affect our compatriots.
Dr. Gönül Pultar President, World League of Tatars