Re: FW: "we cannot go above 40% wind penetration without resorting to external links?" HVDC transmission economics, 'big wind' intermittency

[dave andrews]

David and Kaeko,

this site shows apparently massive interconnection, with for example the Swiss French being about 3 GW.

http://clients.rte-france.com/lang/an/visiteurs/vie/interconnexions/all/capa_util_SUI.jsp?codePays=SUI 

NTC in MW Week 1st Day Export to Germany England Belgium Spain Italy Switzerland Import from Germany England Belgium Spain Italy Switzerland	January 2011 February 2011 March 2011 April 2011 May 2011 June 2011 July 2011 August 2011 September 2011 October 2011 November 2011 December 2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 02/01/2011 09/01/2011 16/01/2011 23/01/2011 30/01/2011 06/02/2011 13/02/2011 20/02/2011 27/02/2011 06/03/2011 13/03/2011 20/03/2011 27/03/2011 03/04/2011 10/04/2011 17/04/2011 24/04/2011 01/05/2011 08/05/2011 15/05/2011 22/05/2011 29/05/2011 05/06/2011 12/06/2011 19/06/2011 26/06/2011 03/07/2011 10/07/2011 17/07/2011 24/07/2011 31/07/2011 07/08/2011 14/08/2011 21/08/2011 28/08/2011 04/09/2011 11/09/2011 18/09/2011 25/09/2011 02/10/2011 09/10/2011 16/10/2011 23/10/2011 30/10/2011 06/11/2011 13/11/2011 20/11/2011 27/11/2011 04/12/2011 11/12/2011 18/12/2011 25/12/2011 2400 2400 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 2700 2700 2400 2500 1700 1700 2200 2600 2700 2200 2200 2200 2200 2400 2500 2500 2300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1500 1500 2400 1200 1200 1600 1700 2000 2000 2200 2200 2400 2400 2400 2400 2400 2400 2400 2400 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 3600 3600 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 3800 3800 3800 3600 3500 3500 2700 2900 3200 3200 3500 3500 3200 3100 3100 3100 3100 2800 2700 2900 2900 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 2800 2600 2600 2500 2500 3100 3100 3500 3500 3600 3600 3600 3600 3600 3600 3600 3600 800 800 800 0 0 0 0 0 1550 1550 1550 1550 1550 1450 1150 1150 1150 1150 1450 1450 1350 1350 1350 1350 1200 1200 1350 1350 1350 1350 1350 1350 1350 650 1350 1350 300 300 200 1000 1000 1000 1000 550 650 650 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1025 1025 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 1195 1195 1195 1195 1195 1025 1025 1195 1195 1195 1025 1025 1195 1195 1025 1025 1025 1025 1025 1025 1025 1025 1025 1025 1025 1025 1025 1025 2460 2460 2460 1025 1025 2460 2460 2460 2460 1025 2460 1025 1025 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3300 3300 3800 3800 3800 3800 3800 4000 4000 3400 3400 3400 3400 3200 3200 2700 2700 3000 3650 2800 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 2950 2750 2750 3200 2850 2850 2200 2850 3500 2200 3100 3100 3100 3700 2250 2300 2300 4500 4150 3100 3100 3100 3100 3100 3100 3300 3300 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 1200 1200 1400 1400 1400 1400 1400 1550 1550 1250 1250 1250 1250 1200 1200 1000 1000 1150 1400 1100 1250 1250 1250 1250 1250 1150 1050 1050 1250 1100 1100 800 1100 1100 800 1100 1100 1250 1500 1000 1300 1300 1950 1400 1150 1150 1150 1150 1150 1150 1200 1200 1500 1500 1500 550 550 550 550 550 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1400 900 900 900 900 1400 1400 1300 1300 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1150 1150 1200 1200 1200 600 1200 1300 1300 1300 800 400 400 400 400 450 450 450 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 995 995 995 995 995 995 995 995 995 995 995 995 995 995 995 995 995 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 995 995 995 995 995 995 995 995 995 995 995 995 995 2600 2600 2600 2600 2600 2600 2600 2600 2600 2600 1400 1400 1400 1400 1400 1400 2100 2100 2100 1800 1800 1800 1800 1300 1800 1800 1300 1300 1800 1500 1500 1500 1500 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 2100 2100 1500 2100 2100 2600 2600 2600 2600 2600 2600 2600 2600
Download the data

On 17 December 2011 17:20, David & Kaeko Ward <davida...@btinternet.com> wrote:

Fred  / Dave 

 

Your statement about nuclear is not correct.

 

For example, the French have been well above 40% nuclear (annual energy percentage) since the mid 1980s .  And they do not rely on their external connections to provide all their load following and frequency control    

 

It is not  necessarily an issue if you design the nuclear units to have the flexibility  that is needed .  The old magnox units in the UK were not so designed and could not be flexible but they are almost all closed now anyway. 

 

Depends whether you have a "can-do" or "can't do" attitude.  (Same applies to wind) 

 

Regards

 

Dave Ward 

 

(PS,  I tried to post this direct to  grid-supergrid-in...@googlegroups.com but it seems I don't have access to that)

 

 

-----Original Message-----
From: grid-supergrid-in...@googlegroups.com [mailto:grid-supergrid-in...@googlegroups.com]On Behalf Of star...@yahoo.com
Sent: 17 December 2011 16:21
To: grid-supergrid-in...@googlegroups.com; wind-energ...@googlegroups.com; Claverton AB MAIN GROUP; Jerome Guillet
Subject: Re: "we cannot go above 40% wind penetration without resorting to external links?" HVDC transmission economics, 'big wind' intermittency

Dear All

 

It seems to be completely lost on people that nuclear cannot go above 40% either, without flexible external links, mainly coming from hydro or from convnetional fossil plants.

 

 The 30 % of output from nuclear in Britain in the late 1990s was starting to cause strain on the fossil plant sector. Because of the concern, a major conference was set up in London in 2001 on the effects of plant cycling on power plant maintenance and costs. A report of the conference is given in "Materials at High Temperature"

 

It was at this conference, in the opening presentation, I asked delegates to look beyond the present concern caused by nuclear  to the coming problems resulting from wind energy. I believe I was the first raise this issue and have been harping on about it ever since.

 

Fred

 

 

--

Dave Andrews

K.E.N.T.
+ 44 (0)  755 265 9166

+ 31 (0)  631 926 885
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[dave andrews]

Andrew,

I think your line of reasoning is a bit like saying " dogs and cats are furry animals kept as pets, therefore cats should run after a thrown stick, as  does a dog" There is no reason to suppose just because wind and nuclear are non despatchable (actually I think nuclear is despatchable within the accepted use of the term) then both will have the same upper limit.,

The reason no one claims you can have 100% nuclear without massive storage and massive interconnection is because it is not possible. You could have 100% of either with enough storage and interconnection.  It all depends how much you are prepared to pay.

Kind regards

Dave A

On 18 December 2011 10:21, A FAWCETT <a.fawc...@btinternet.com> wrote:

Dear All,

OK, so if we say nuclear is non-dispatchable, neither is wind dispatchable at all, except that you can feather the blades or switch it off altogether.  So does not the 30-40% limit argument apply equally to Wind for the reasons you have given? 

Personally, I have never claimed that nuclear should exceed that level, unlike the claims I have heard for "close to 100%" Renewable.

Andrew

---

From: "star...@yahoo.com" <star...@yahoo.com>
To: "grid-supergrid-in...@googlegroups.com" <grid-supergrid-in...@googlegroups.com>; "davida...@btinternet.com" <davida...@btinternet.com>; Claverton AB MAIN GROUP <energy-disc...@googlegroups.com>; Claverton Wind energy group <wind-energ...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Saturday, 17 December 2011, 19:58
Subject: Re: FW: "we cannot go above 40% wind penetration without resorting to external links?" HVDC transmission economics, 'big wind' intermittency

Dear All

 

David Andrews and myself published a short note in 2008 in the ICE Energy journal pointing out that the 70% of power from nuclear in France depends greatly on exports and imports from England . Switzerland, Belgium, Germany and Italy. These enable French nuclear plants to run  at a near constant output.

 

Most of the imports come from hydropower, and in France itself considerable use is made of pumped hydro

 

Some very modest changes in output can be done from nuclear, but they are quite unable to two shift. That is to be shut down overnight and started up the next day.  

 

If Europe as whole decided to go nuclear, the European average would be in the 30-40% range. The best that can be said about nuclear is that it will require less hydro or fossil plant to cater for the day time demand than wind needs as back up.

 

Fred  Starr