Winter Wx. Update: Two for Two on Snow? Looks Likely.
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Jan 24, 2013, 10:10:47 PM1/24/13
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WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
Summary: The previous forecast looks to be holding, and I expect a low-end Winter Weather Advisory to be issued later tonight for the entire DC area. However, one seemingly minor but all-important detail has become clearer: the timing.
Timing: Currently, based off model data and discussions with NWS forecasters, it looks like we'll see snow begin to accumulate during the 2-4pm period tomorrow for DC, although this still might be refined by an hour or so as the event gets closer. Once it starts, snow should fall at a light to moderate rate, a little faster on average than last night, but only last for around four hours or so until the system rapidly pulls out in the 6-8PM timeframe.
Accumulations: I am are still predicting around an inch for the Alexandria area, around what we got last night or perhaps a tad more. I'd say there's about a 50-60% chance we reach that mark, and we are virtually certain to get some snow, but I find it pretty unlikely (10-20%) we'll see two inches or more. I don't expect any sleet, ice, or other mixed precipitation, although the snow could be a little wetter than today's.
Timing: Currently, based off model data and discussions with NWS forecasters, it looks like we'll see snow begin to accumulate during the 2-4pm period tomorrow for DC, although this still might be refined by an hour or so as the event gets closer. Once it starts, snow should fall at a light to moderate rate, a little faster on average than last night, but only last for around four hours or so until the system rapidly pulls out in the 6-8PM timeframe.
Accumulations: I am are still predicting around an inch for the Alexandria area, around what we got last night or perhaps a tad more. I'd say there's about a 50-60% chance we reach that mark, and we are virtually certain to get some snow, but I find it pretty unlikely (10-20%) we'll see two inches or more. I don't expect any sleet, ice, or other mixed precipitation, although the snow could be a little wetter than today's.
Impacts: Given that the timeframe did indeed move up by an hour from the previous forecasts, impacts to travel during the afternoon rush look to be at least moderate, even for a Friday's slightly earlier commute. Roads, especially major ones won't be completely impassible, but the trip will be slow and side streets and hills quite slippery, especially during 4-6pm time period and perhaps earlier . Although visibility won't be too bad due to light winds and only moderate snowfall rates, it won't help things either, especially during the heart of rush hour. However, I don't expect impacts to last much into Saturday, except for a bit of snow to enjoy.
Action Plan: I'll have a short update early tomorrow morning, presumably with any additional timing details and pulling more in-depth impact analysis from the Winter Weather Advisory that will probably be up by that time. For now, I would advise those planning to be on the roads in the 2-4pm timeframe to closely monitor forecasts, and those thinking of driving during the 4-7pm rush to consider modifying their course of action ensure a safe and speedy trip.
Action Plan: I'll have a short update early tomorrow morning, presumably with any additional timing details and pulling more in-depth impact analysis from the Winter Weather Advisory that will probably be up by that time. For now, I would advise those planning to be on the roads in the 2-4pm timeframe to closely monitor forecasts, and those thinking of driving during the 4-7pm rush to consider modifying their course of action ensure a safe and speedy trip.
Our next chance for some wet snow or a wintry mix could come in the Wed-Thurs timeframe of next week, but it is certainly not a certainty at almost a week out. If it develops further, I'll let you all know. And, as always...enjoy the snow.
C. A. M. Gerlach
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