ALERT-Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Tomorrow
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Jun 12, 2013, 3:10:50 PM6/12/13
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SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SWO-47 -- BRIEFING
Primary Threat(s): Widespread damaging winds, with hail and a few tornadoes also possible.
Locations Impacted: Significant risk across the entire DC area, but the highest risk is along and east of the I-95.
Time of Threat: Some potential for isolated severe storms later this evening into tonight. Greatest threat for severe storms tomorrow is during the mid- to late-afternoon tomorrow, and storms should clear out by later in the evening. The precise timeframe may change based on later outlooks, given the limited information available at this time.
Discussion: The latest outlooks and models continue to indicate a strong potential for damaging and perhaps very destructive severe weather, especially severe winds, that are expected to occur tomorrow over a large portion of the greater DC area. The main concern still present in the forecast, at least for me, is that heavy cloudcover from the storms to our west today will inhibit the surface heating necessary tomorrow for strong storms. However, assuming that significant breaks in the clouds occur, and the system does not east faster than expected (as we are on its western edge for tomorrow) I would expect a significant, perhaps even historic outbreak approaching the scale of last year's derecho, at least for our region. The storms might not be quite as continuous, but could be more intense and come in multiple waves.
What To Do: A severe thunderstorm (or tornado) watch, or an alert that storms are likely but not yet occurring over our general area, is likely to be issued tomorrow sometime in the noon-4PM period, which means to stay tuned to local media to monitor the progress of storms. If it is possible, please try to be off the roads and in a safe location once one is issued. If you hear a severe thunderstorm (or tornado) warning has been issued, that means a dangerous storm is actually occurring or imminent. This means you need to get to a safe location--like the lowest floor or basement of a sturdy house or building, and NOT in a vehicle, a mobile home, or outdoors. Assuming the threat has remained near this level tomorrow, PLEASE refrain from any travel during tomorrow during the 3PM through 7PM hours (exact timeframe first thing tomorrow morning). Remember, a basement or study building can provide almost complete protection from severe winds, but offer none if you are not in one of them when a storm strikes.
Updates: I will have a full update tomorrow morning, when most of the uncertainty in the event will be ironed out, as well as reguler updates via email and other means should storms form and approach. Please, please stay tuned, stay alert, and stay safe.
Primary Threat(s): Widespread damaging winds, with hail and a few tornadoes also possible.
Locations Impacted: Significant risk across the entire DC area, but the highest risk is along and east of the I-95.
Time of Threat: Some potential for isolated severe storms later this evening into tonight. Greatest threat for severe storms tomorrow is during the mid- to late-afternoon tomorrow, and storms should clear out by later in the evening. The precise timeframe may change based on later outlooks, given the limited information available at this time.
Discussion: The latest outlooks and models continue to indicate a strong potential for damaging and perhaps very destructive severe weather, especially severe winds, that are expected to occur tomorrow over a large portion of the greater DC area. The main concern still present in the forecast, at least for me, is that heavy cloudcover from the storms to our west today will inhibit the surface heating necessary tomorrow for strong storms. However, assuming that significant breaks in the clouds occur, and the system does not east faster than expected (as we are on its western edge for tomorrow) I would expect a significant, perhaps even historic outbreak approaching the scale of last year's derecho, at least for our region. The storms might not be quite as continuous, but could be more intense and come in multiple waves.
What To Do: A severe thunderstorm (or tornado) watch, or an alert that storms are likely but not yet occurring over our general area, is likely to be issued tomorrow sometime in the noon-4PM period, which means to stay tuned to local media to monitor the progress of storms. If it is possible, please try to be off the roads and in a safe location once one is issued. If you hear a severe thunderstorm (or tornado) warning has been issued, that means a dangerous storm is actually occurring or imminent. This means you need to get to a safe location--like the lowest floor or basement of a sturdy house or building, and NOT in a vehicle, a mobile home, or outdoors. Assuming the threat has remained near this level tomorrow, PLEASE refrain from any travel during tomorrow during the 3PM through 7PM hours (exact timeframe first thing tomorrow morning). Remember, a basement or study building can provide almost complete protection from severe winds, but offer none if you are not in one of them when a storm strikes.
Updates: I will have a full update tomorrow morning, when most of the uncertainty in the event will be ironed out, as well as reguler updates via email and other means should storms form and approach. Please, please stay tuned, stay alert, and stay safe.
C. A. M. Gerlach
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