Winter Wx Outlook: Mod to Major Snow Event Likely Wednesday
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Mar 4, 2013, 11:51:27 PM3/4/13
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WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK
Summary: This event looks like it could actually amount to something, unlike the hyped-up (elsewhere) dustings we've had in the past. There is still some uncertainty in the forecast, leveraging on exactly when/where the rain/snow changeover occurs, but it is pretty certain at this point that we will see something, and we have fairly good confidence on the timing.
Timing: We could see a few light showers Tuesday morning, but we will most likely see light to moderate rain start sometime Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Snow could mix in for some parts of the area, especially to the west of DC, but the predominant precipitation through midnight Tuesday should be rain.
Precipitation oscillates between rain and snow for DC and portions of the area along I-95 from midnight through the dawn hours on Monday, and looks to become more solidly wet, accumulating snow by noon. Heaviest periods of snow accumulation for DC and points east could be from noon Wednesday through after dark. Light snow showers could persist through the early morning hours Thursday, before pulling out after sunrise.
Accumulations: Looking at various estimates, we could get anywhere from 3-8 inches, but my guess would be around the 4-6 inch range, or maybe a bit lower. However, if you wake up Wednesday to some significant snow mixing in, your location is fairly likely to see more than that total, and if we don't see much snow until noon or after, you are likely to get less. Picking up at least two inches looks very likely (>80%) at this point, and are pretty likely (around 70%) to get around four inches. Some models are currently predicting 50-60% probs we will see up to eight inches, but I am quite doubtful of that at this time, as well as the 30-40% chance we could see a foot or more.
Timing: We could see a few light showers Tuesday morning, but we will most likely see light to moderate rain start sometime Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Snow could mix in for some parts of the area, especially to the west of DC, but the predominant precipitation through midnight Tuesday should be rain.
Precipitation oscillates between rain and snow for DC and portions of the area along I-95 from midnight through the dawn hours on Monday, and looks to become more solidly wet, accumulating snow by noon. Heaviest periods of snow accumulation for DC and points east could be from noon Wednesday through after dark. Light snow showers could persist through the early morning hours Thursday, before pulling out after sunrise.
Accumulations: Looking at various estimates, we could get anywhere from 3-8 inches, but my guess would be around the 4-6 inch range, or maybe a bit lower. However, if you wake up Wednesday to some significant snow mixing in, your location is fairly likely to see more than that total, and if we don't see much snow until noon or after, you are likely to get less. Picking up at least two inches looks very likely (>80%) at this point, and are pretty likely (around 70%) to get around four inches. Some models are currently predicting 50-60% probs we will see up to eight inches, but I am quite doubtful of that at this time, as well as the 30-40% chance we could see a foot or more.
Impacts: The event could have significant impacts to travel starting late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, intensifying during the morning hours Wednesday, and with a peak danger during Wednesday afternoon and evening. Gusty winds are also possible later Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures in the high 30s and lower 40s should melt much of the snow during the day Thursday, but travel will still be hazardous until most of the snow is melted or plowed.
Long Term Outlook: There looks to be another similar system coming through early next week, but snow chances with that are still uncertain. If I do learn it could be a threat after this event concludes, I will make sure to let you all know. Thanks.
UPDATE...Tomorrow, as/when the changing forecast situation warrants.
UPDATE...Tomorrow, as/when the changing forecast situation warrants.
This may be the last (and only) big hurrah for snow this year, despite (meteorological) Winter being officially over. Snow lovers can rejoice, and snow-hat--er, dislikers--can take comfort in the fact that this will all soon be over. Thanks, and as always, enjoy.
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