Winter Weather Update: Confidence in Snow Continues to Rise

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WINTER WEATHER UPDATE

Summary: Over the past twelve hours, our confidence in the magnitude and timing of the moderate to potentially major snow event tomorrow continues to increase, although some refinements are necessary.

Timing: Light to moderate rain looks to begin a little latter this evening, and we could see the rain-snow changeover as early as midnight tonight, although current thinking is that precip may change back to rain for a period in the morning, before turning back to snow for the rest of the day Wednesday. We could see a few snow showers during the day on Thursday, but significant precipitation should end by daybreak Thursday.

Accumulations: The latest totals have been revised significantly up, with the official National Weather Service prediction being around 7-8 (!) inches for the immediate DC area and I-95 corridor. However, given my main concerns with the forecast specific to the metro area, I am leaning toward more of a 5-7 in range, with some potential for lower accumulations should more fall as rain, and I don't expect us to get more than 8. We are also not expecting any significant freezing rain or sleet with this event.

Impacts: I expect impacts to be largely the same as the previous outlook--minimal late Tuesday, paralysis of transportation by mid/late morning Wednesday, and steadily improving conditions thereafter.

Long Term Outlook: We are continuing to monitor the system early next week, but uncertainty is high enough that I can't evaluate the snow potential at this point.

UPDATE...Tonight, if the situation significantly changes; Otherwise, tomorrow morning

C. A. M. Gerlach