Severe Weather Likely Today

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Jun 1, 2012, 8:33:25 AM6/1/12
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SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

Severe weather is a distinct possibility today, with wind, tornadoes, hail, and flash flooding all possible, but wind the biggest and most widespread threat. We could see storms develop from north to south from 2-4PM, but the best chance for storms and severe weather will be from 4-8PM, with mainly heavy rain being the threat after that. Main limiting factor on severe weather will be overcast skies and heavy cloudcover.

Threats: Severe winds from thunderstorms is the greatest threat tomorrow, and although storm winds currently do not look to exceed extreme threasholds, they will be quite widespread. Severe hail is also a threat, but will be more so to the south and east of DC. Flooding could occur if storms travel over the same area readily, especially for areas already inundated with flooding rains. Finally, we will have a small but significant chance for tornadoes to develop along the I-95 corridor around DC to points south, so stay aware of the situation.

Timining;

2-4PM: Storm coverage begins to build from south to north over the DC region. Severe storms are unlikely but possible during this time. The main threat will be small to moderate hail from storms that develop.

4-6PM: I expect storms to initate over the DC area during this time period. Storms will be still relatively isolated, but that means we will have the greatest chance for hail and tornadoes during this time, along with a few gusts of wind.

6-8PM: As storms gradually morph into a long squall line, the tornado and possibly hail threat will diminish, but not be gone completely. Severe winds will increase in widespread coverage as several lines of storms move through, this will be the peak time for severe winds. Flooding will begin to occur over areas that have already received rain from storms.

8-12PM: The severe threat will push off to the east during this time, but we could still see a few gusts of wind, as well as heavy rain and flooding from storms.

That's all for now, I'll have an update around 1PM. Stay safe out there!

C. A. M. Gerlach

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