SWO-42-UPDATE-2: Storms Initiate to W, Right on Schedule

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May 2, 2012, 6:28:00 PM5/2/12
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SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE

Here's your afternoon threat update on the severe weather chances today. Storms still look possible here, with a severe thunderstorm warning (which means that a severe storm IS occurring) out to our west, right near Sharpsburg on the border between MD and VA. These storms are moving in from the west northwest, and I still expect thunder to reach the DC area around 8PM or so, if they do make it that far or new storms form. Main threat is still severe winds, but we have already seen several small hail reports with these storms.

My main concern with the present forecast is how much chance the sun has had to heat the ground, which provides the energy storms need to get going. Since we haven't had much of that, any storms that get as far as DC may weaken and die. If anything does get close, I'll let you all know, and or else I'll issue an all-clear by around 9 or 10PM if conditions do not appear to continue to be favorable for convection. Stand by and stay alert.

Next Update...All clear by 9-10PM or nowcast updates on dangerous storms, as conditions warrant.

C. A. M. Gerlach
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