ALERT--Damaging Winds Likely Today 3-6PM
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Sep 8, 2012, 8:58:15 AM9/8/12
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SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SWO-45 -- BRIEFING
Primary Threat(s): Widespread damaging winds, with a possibility for some spotty extreme winds. A small chance for weak tornadoes and hail
Locations Impacted: Front Royal east to the bay, threat increases with northward extent but entire Greater DC region is at risk.
Time of Threat: This afternoon and evening. Greatest threat is from 3-6PM as the main line of storms moves through, but we could see a few storms, some severe, as early as 1-2PM. All storms should be east of the bay by 8PM.
Discussion: Although not as significant as the threat further north through PA and NJ, our area will likely certainly feel the effects of the strong line of storms we are forecasting will move through the area mid-to-late afternoon, just in advance of a cold front. Especially further north, wind damage will likely be extensive and severe enough to merit the classification of a derecho event, although the impacts to our area will probably not be as bad as those with the June 29th storm. We could see a few storms with gusty winds and small hail ahead of the main line, but the main threat is strong, straight-line (ie not tornadic) winds from the line of storms, and once that moves through, the threat will be essentially over. The main limiting factor on this forecast is, as usual, cloud cover from previous storms, but as long as we get a few breaks in the clouds, severe weather is possible given the strong cold front and winds aloft.
What To Do: A watch, or an alert that storms are likely over our general area, is likely to be issued later today, which means to stay tuned to local media to monitor the progress of storms. If you see dark clouds to the west moving toward you at a rapid pace, this is likely the squall line approaching. The storms should pass within 30 minutes, so be sure to check media reports and get underground if you are under a warning, which means severe weather is about to impact your area.
Updates: I will not be nowcasting this event as I will be up in PA, covering the worst impacts there. However, I should be back in time for the all clear around 6-7PM.
This is pretty serious, folks, so keep your eyes to the sky and yourself and your families safe. See you all on the other side!
Primary Threat(s): Widespread damaging winds, with a possibility for some spotty extreme winds. A small chance for weak tornadoes and hail
Locations Impacted: Front Royal east to the bay, threat increases with northward extent but entire Greater DC region is at risk.
Time of Threat: This afternoon and evening. Greatest threat is from 3-6PM as the main line of storms moves through, but we could see a few storms, some severe, as early as 1-2PM. All storms should be east of the bay by 8PM.
Discussion: Although not as significant as the threat further north through PA and NJ, our area will likely certainly feel the effects of the strong line of storms we are forecasting will move through the area mid-to-late afternoon, just in advance of a cold front. Especially further north, wind damage will likely be extensive and severe enough to merit the classification of a derecho event, although the impacts to our area will probably not be as bad as those with the June 29th storm. We could see a few storms with gusty winds and small hail ahead of the main line, but the main threat is strong, straight-line (ie not tornadic) winds from the line of storms, and once that moves through, the threat will be essentially over. The main limiting factor on this forecast is, as usual, cloud cover from previous storms, but as long as we get a few breaks in the clouds, severe weather is possible given the strong cold front and winds aloft.
What To Do: A watch, or an alert that storms are likely over our general area, is likely to be issued later today, which means to stay tuned to local media to monitor the progress of storms. If you see dark clouds to the west moving toward you at a rapid pace, this is likely the squall line approaching. The storms should pass within 30 minutes, so be sure to check media reports and get underground if you are under a warning, which means severe weather is about to impact your area.
Updates: I will not be nowcasting this event as I will be up in PA, covering the worst impacts there. However, I should be back in time for the all clear around 6-7PM.
This is pretty serious, folks, so keep your eyes to the sky and yourself and your families safe. See you all on the other side!
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©. A. M. Gerlach.
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