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In
recent years, it’s become abundantly
clear this region’s war on smog hinges
on the adoption electric vehicles. And,
for the first time in a generation, we
may be headed in the wrong direction.
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If
you’ve followed my coverage, you
probably know that Southern California’s
persistently sunny climate and mountains
work together to form and trap smog over
our region. And, that the leading source
of smog-forming pollution is the same
today as it was decades ago:
gas-guzzling cars and trucks.
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State
regulators have made tremendous progress
in the last few decades when it comes to
curbing tailpipe pollution; California,
for example, was the first state to
adopt engine emission standards and
mandate catalytic converters,
regulations that were later adopted
nationwide. But Southern California has
yet to achieve any federal air quality
standards for smog.
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And
now, electric vehicles and hybrids face
significant headwinds due to recent
policy changes under the Trump
administration.
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Since
President Trump’s return to the Oval
Office, the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency has successfully
campaigned to invalidate
several California auto emission
standards, including a landmark
rule that would’ve required 35% of new
vehicles that automakers supply to
California car dealerships to be
zero-emission or plug-in hybrid starting
next year.
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Separately,
Trump’s budget bill terminated federal
incentives at the end of September that
made zero-emission vehicles more
cost-competitive with gas cars. As I
recently wrote, California saw record-high
sales numbers of EVs and other
clean vehicles as consumers scrambled to
dealerships to take advantage of
expiring deals.
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But
now, without these two crucial policy
levers driving EV adoption, the industry
is at an inflection point.
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A
new EV costs about $8,000 more on
average than a gas car, according to Kelley Blue
Book.
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The
overall cost of ownership for EVs can
still be cheaper than for gas cars due
to lower fuel and maintenance costs.
However, the question is, will Americans
accept a higher upfront price tag in
exchange for fewer costs — and less
pollution — down the road?
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The
auto industry doesn’t pivot on a dime.
Car lineups are designed, produced and
released years in advance. But, in the
last year, amid a torrent of policy
decisions coming from the Trump White
House, car companies have announced many
moves that signal a retreat from some
zero-emission vehicles:
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- Acura discontinued
its electric ZDX after just releasing
one model year.
- Ford scrapped
its forthcoming all-electric three-row
SUV program.
- General Motors discontinued
the Brightdrop van, an electric
delivery van.
- Ram pivoted
from releasing an all-electric pickup
truck to a plug-in hybrid model.
- Stellantis shelved
its hydrogen fuel cell program for
commercial vans.
- Volkswagen canceled
the release of its ID.7 sedan in North
America.
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The
loss of new or forthcoming zero-emission
models is disheartening, said Joel
Levin, executive director of Plug In
America, a nonprofit that hosts events
to advocate for more EVs. But, he added,
most of these were fledgling models that
did not make up a large share of sales.
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“I
think it’s that people are just being
more selective about what they’re
bringing to market, and are focusing in
on the vehicles that they really feel
like have legs,” Levin said. “So it’s a
loss. I’m sad about it. But I don’t
think that it’s an existential threat to
the market.”
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In
the last decade, Levin has seen the
national market share of EVs and plug-in
hybrids compared with overall car sales
grow from a fraction of a percent in
2015 to roughly 10% in 2024. In
California, that number was even higher,
at 25%.
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Levin
said that can largely be attributed to
advancement of battery technology, which
has allowed for drastically longer
range. But EVs also offer technological
amenities that gas counterparts do not.
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“Ford
has advertised how you can use your
pickup truck as backup power for your
house if the power goes out,” Levin
said. “Or if you’re a contractor or
rancher and you need to use power tools
somewhere remote away from your house,
you can just plug them into your truck.
If you’re camping, you can set up your
electric kitchen, or you can watch
movies, or you can charge your
equipment.”
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Those
features may help win over some drivers.
But experts say government regulations
are necessary to achieve California’s
air quality and climate targets.
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California
is suing the federal government and
Trump administration, alleging they
illegally overturned the state’s auto
emission standards. The state Air
Resources Board has also proposed
several ideas to boost EV sales, such as
providing free access to toll roads to
EV and hybrid drivers.
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That
said, Gov. Gavin Newsom recently ruled
out one of the most powerful tools at
his disposal to promote a clean fleet of
vehicles in California, as he reneged on
his commitment to restore a state rebate
program for EV buyers that he had
previously vowed to put into effect if
Trump eliminated federal incentives.
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Dan
Sperling, a former CARB board member and
UC Davis professor, said the state might
consider a “feebate” program in which
the state could impose fees on the sales
of the most polluting cars, which would
then be used to fund rebates for EV and
hybrid purchases.
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Meanwhile,
as consumer sentiment and government
policies vacillate in the U.S., demand
internationally continues to grow. And
American automakers will need to keep
investing in EVs if they want to stay
globally competitive. Sperling, who took
my call while traveling to Paris, said
he noticed Chinese EVs throughout the
city.
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“In
China, 50% of all their vehicles that
they sell are electric vehicles,”
Sperling said. “They sell more electric
vehicles in China than total cars sold
in the U.S.”
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“The
vehicle industry is an international
industry and so they can’t afford to
just give up on electric vehicles,
because that means they’re giving up on
the rest of the world.”
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Air
news this week
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Ten
years after the disastrous
Aliso Canyon gas leak, my
colleague Hayley Smith spoke with
residents about their recollections of
the dangerous release of some 120,000
tons of methane and other toxic
chemicals near Porter Ranch. Despite
persistent environmental concerns,
regulators have voted to keep the gas
storage facility online, citing concerns
over energy demand.
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A
judge ordered a Watts recycling facility
to permanently
shut down and pay $2 million in
restitution and fines after the company
and its owners pleaded no contest to
illegally dumping hazardous waste that
was polluting a nearby high school.
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Environmental
groups recently sued the Trump
administration for lifting restrictions
on dozens of
chemical manufacturing plants,
according to InsideClimate News reporter
Keerti Gopal.
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LAist’s
AirTalk host Larry Mantle hosted a great
conversation on how Los Angeles became
the nation’s smog
capital. He and Chip Jacobs, the
author of “Smogtown: The Lung-Burning
History of Pollution in Los Angeles,”
recounted the region’s first brush with
toxic haze in the 1940s and pollution’s
lasting legacy in Southern California.
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Associated
Press reporters Sheikh Saaliq and Sibi
Arasu reported that officials in India
are undertaking cloud-seeding
experiments as a way to clear air
pollution in New Delhi. The
controversial approach involves using
aircraft to spray chemicals into clouds
above the city in hopes of triggering
rainfall that would suppress the smog.
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One
more thing in climate news ...
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Hurricane
Melissa, one of the strongest hurricanes
recorded to date in the Atlantic, killed more
than 20 people as it barreled
through Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba,
according to the Washington Post. The
proliferation of greenhouse gases from
burning fossil fuels undoubtedly
contributed to the historically powerful
storm. Because a warmer atmosphere can
hold more moisture and foster more
intense storms, Melissa may be a
harbinger of what’s to come.
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Making
matters worse, Bloomberg reporters
Leslie Kaufman and Fabiano Maisonnave
report that wealthy countries are not
giving poorer nations the climate
adaptation funding they need,
according to the United Nations
Environmental Programme. As climate
risks in many of these countries
increase, funding to adapt to climate
change is shrinking.
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This
is the latest edition of Boiling
Point, a newsletter about climate
change and the environment in the
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And listen to our Boiling Point
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For
more air quality and climate news,
follow Tony Briscoe at @_tonybriscoe
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