|
Extreme
heat is the deadliest
weather-related hazard in the
United States, yet most
heat-related illness and death
is preventable with
appropriate preparation and
adaptation. A core challenge,
however, is that people’s
perceptions of local heat risk
often diverge sharply from
expert assessments, limiting
protective behaviors and
effective policy responses.
In
this study, we introduce the
Risk Analysis–Perception (RAP)
framework, which directly
compares assessed heat risk
(measured using the CDC’s Heat
and Health Index) with
perceived heat risk, modeled
from five years of nationally
representative survey data
(2018–2022; N = 11,113). Using
multilevel regression with
poststratification (MRP), we
estimate the percentage of
residents worried about
extreme heat in every U.S.
state and county, and then map
where perceptions align—or
fail to align—with assessed
heat risk to human health.
We
find large perception gaps
across much of the country. In
most U.S. counties, assessed
heat risk is substantially
higher than perceived risk,
particularly in the Pacific
Northwest, Appalachia, parts
of Michigan, and rural areas.
Only about 4% of counties have
a majority of residents who
are at least moderately
worried about extreme heat,
despite growing health risks
as the climate warms. In
contrast, a small number of
counties—mainly in parts of
Texas and California—show high
perceived and high assessed
risk, indicating stronger
alignment between people’s
lived experience and their
assessed vulnerability.
Demographic
and socioeconomic factors play
a major role in shaping these
gaps. Counties with higher
poverty rates and older
populations are more likely to
underestimate heat risk
relative to assessments, while
counties with higher levels of
education tend to show closer
alignment with, or greater
awareness of, assessed risk
levels. We also find important
racial and ethnic patterns
that reflect underlying
structural vulnerabilities and
lived experience, underscoring
that misalignment is not
merely a matter of information
deficits.
Overall,
the results tell a clear and
urgent story: extreme heat
risk is rising faster than
public awareness, and past
experience alone is a poor
guide to future danger. The
RAP framework provides a
practical, data-driven way to
identify “danger zone”
communities—places where heat
risk is high but concern is
low—and to target climate risk
communication, public health
outreach, and adaptation
investments where they are
most needed.
The
full open-access article is
available here
at the journal Nature
Communications. The
interactive maps, more details
on the tool, and responses to
frequently asked questions can
be found on our website here.
|
