Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion March 7-21
James Munley
Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion March 7-21
344 PM EST Tue. Mar. 4, 2025
Mar. 7-11: The flow will remain split. A trough ridge trough pattern is forecast with a gradual flattening of the flow as a trough pushes into the West and a ridge slides east.
Another low pressure system is forecast to develop in the West, which will track across the central Plains by Friday. The system will split into two separate waves, with one piece of energy tracking toward the Ohio Valley, followed by a southern stream wave in its wake that tracks generally near or just north of the Gulf Coast. There is some uncertainty with the interaction with the possible development of a system off the East Coast. Rain and Mountain snow will occur across southern California and the Southwest through Friday. Moderate to heavy snow will be possible for the highest terrain of the Four Corners.
Mar. 12-16: A trough covers much of North America with above-normal heights across the high latitudes.
Below normal temperatures are forecast for the West Coast and the Great Basin. Anomalies are forecast to be near 8°F. Above normal temperatures are forecast from the eastern Rockies to the Atlantic Coast. Anomalies are expected to be near 8°F.
Above-normal precipitation is forecast for the West Coast, the Northwest, and the Great Basin. The probability of occurrence is nearly 35 percent. Below-normal precipitation is forecast from the Plains to the Atlantic Coast. The probability of occurrence is nearly 35 percent.
Mar. 17-21: The ensembles are indicating a ridge, trough configuration. The other models indicate a trough, ridge, and trough configuration. In eastern Asia, riding develops and pushes the trough east.
Little change is expected in the temperature anomaly forecast from the previous period.
Above-normal precipitation is forecast for the northern Rockies, the West Coast, and the Great Basin. The probability of occurrence is near 35 percent. Below-normal precipitation is forecast for most of the Gulf Coast States, the Southeast, the Tennessee Valley, and most of the Mid-Atlantic. The probability of occurrence is 35 percent.
Jim Munley
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