Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion January 5-19
James Munley
Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion January 5-19
418 PM EST Mon. Jan. 2, 2024
Jan. 5-9: Height will be above normal across the high latitudes and the eastern Pacific with below normal heights across the mid-latitudes.
An active pattern is forecast across the nation as a series of storm systems track West to East. Low pressure is forecast to move from the Southern Plains on Friday into the East by this weekend. The system has the potential for heavy precipitation from the Gulf Coast northeastward. The next system is expected to drop into the West this weekend and will bring another round of valley rain and mountain snow progressing from California into the Four Corners region. Low pressure organizes in the south-central Plains by Monday, bringing another round of heavy rainfall to parts of the South and the Tennessee Valley early next week.
Jan. 10-14: The flow is more amplified during this period compared to the previous. Fairly strong positive height anomalies are forecast across the high latitudes with a deep, broad trough across the nation.
Below normal temperatures are forecast from the Midwest, the Tennessee Valley to the Pacific Coast. Anomalies of 4-6°F are expected.
Below-normal precipitation is forecast for the West Coast. The probability of occurrence is nearly 35 percent. Above-normal precipitation is forecast east of the Mississippi Valley. The probability of occurrence is nearly 40 percent.
Jan. 15-19: Positive heights deepen across the high latitudes. A broad trough covers the nation. However, some models depict above-normal heights along the East Coast.
Little change is expected in the temperature anomalies from the previous period.
Above normal precipitation is forecast for the Northwest, a portion of the Four Corners, most of the Plains, the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast. The probability of occurrence is nearly 40 percent.
Jim Munley
Youtube: Jimmunleywx
Twitter: @jimmunley
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