Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion January 2-16
James Munley
Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion January 2-16
209 PM EST Tue. Dec. 30, 2025
Jan. 2-6: A trough is forecast over the eastern Pacific and the West Coast, with another trough over the East. A ridge is forecast in between. The eastern trough gradually lifts out by the end of the period.
A broad cyclonic flow aloft in the East will keep a cold airmass in place. A ridge in the West will flatten as it gets pushed to the east across the Plains by the weekend. Unsettled conditions are expected to affect the West Coast by Thursday, with a potentially well-organized storm system reaching central and northern California late in the week. A low along a frontal boundary across the southern states is expected to bring rain to the Southeast on Friday. Another clipper system is likely to cross the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes towards early next week.
Jan. 7-11: A trough and upper low are forecast in the West with a ridge in the East.
Above normal temperatures are forecast from the Pacific Coast to the Mississippi Valley. Anomalies could be near 8°F. Below normal temperatures are forecast for the Northeast and the northern Mid-Atlantic. Anomalies of 2-4°F are expected.
Below normal precipitation is forecast for most of California and the coastal areas of Oregon, Washington, and the southern Plains. The probability of occurrence is 35 percent. Above normal precipitation is forecast for a portion of the Great Lakes, Oregon, and most of the Southeast. The probability of occurrence is 25 percent.
Jan. 12-16: Little overall change is expected in the flow. The GFS depicts an upper low over Hudson Bay. The ECNWF ensembles have a trough in the East, with the operational depicting a trough off the West Coast.
Above normal temperatures are forecast from the Mississippi Valley to the Pacific Coast. Anomalies could be greater than 8°F. Below normal temperatures are forecast for most of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. Anomalies could be near 6°F.
Below normal Precipitation is forecast west of the Divide, the middle and lower Mississippi Valley, the Midwest, the Northeast, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Southeast. The probability of occurrence is 35 percent.
Jim Munley
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