Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion November 23-December 7
James Munley
Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion November 23-December 7
207 PM EST Thu. Nov. 20, 2025
Nov. 23-27: All guidance agrees in bringing the western trough eastward with Above-normal heights along the West and East Coast. This occurs as a ridge builds into the West and a trough slides into eastern Asia.
A closed upper low will move into the Southwest this weekend and then track toward the south-central states early next week. A return flow will fuel another heavy rain threat across the southern Plains. The system will then move eastward, bringing rain across the east-central states and into the East for the next midweek period. There is the potential for heavier rainfall amounts to return to the South-Central states Sunday into Monday. The WPC signals that this could be a significant rainfall event with a marginal risk for excessive Rainfall. Several upper-level troughs in the northern stream will move across the northern states. This will bring precipitation across the region.
Nov. 28-Dec. 2: The trough in the East quickly lifts out as a trough builds into the West. This brings Above-normal heights back to the East. A ridge builds back into eastern Asia.
Below-normal temperatures are forecast for the northern and central Rockies, the northern Plains, and the upper Mississippi Valley. Anomalies are expected to be near 6°F. Above-normal temperatures are forecast for the central and eastern Gulf Coast States, the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. Anomalies are expected to be near 6°F.
Below-normal precipitation is forecast for the West Coast, the Great Basin, and the Four Corners. The probability of occurrence is 35 percent. Above-normal precipitation is forecast for the middle and lower Mississippi Valley, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and the Gulf Coast. The probability of occurrence is nearly 40 percent.
Dec. 3-7: A trough moves into Asia, which favors a trough in the East. The NAO fluctuates to near neutral, with the AO remaining negative during this period. The GEFS and the ECMWF ensembles reflect this. However, the GFS has the trough in the West.
Above-normal temperatures are forecast for the West, the Plains, most of the Mississippi Valley, and most of the Southeast. Anomalies are expected to be near 6°F. Below-normal temperatures are forecast for the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast. Anomalies are expected to be near 2°F.
Above-normal precipitation is forecast for central and northern California to the Northwest and western Montana. The probability of occurrence is nearly 35 percent. Below-normal precipitation is forecast for the Northeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the Southeast, and the central and eastern Gulf Coast States. The probability of occurrence is nearly 40 percent.
Jim Munley
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