Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion December 22-January 5
James Munley
Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion December 22-January 5
410 PM EST Tue. Dec. 19, 2023
Dec. 22-26: A split flow is forecast in the West with an upper low in the Southwest. Heights remained mixed across the Arctic with below-normal heights across Greenland. Above normal heights cover a large portion of the nation.
A closed upper low will track southeastward off the California Coast and then track inland late in the week. This will bring precipitation into Southern California and the Southwest. The system should result in the development of a low in the south-central Plains. The system will interact with moisture from the gulf and cause rain and storms.
Dec. 27-31: Heights remain below normal across the Arctic and Greenland. A trough covers Alaska the northeast Pacific and the southern states. Above-normal heights cover Canada and much of the northern states.
Above normal temperatures are forecast for a majority of the country. Anomalies could be as high as 8°F in some locations.
Below-normal precipitation is forecast for the northern Rockies, the upper Mississippi Valley, most of the Great Lakes region, the northern Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast. The probability of occurrence is 35 percent. Above-normal precipitation is forecast for California, coastal Oregon and Washington, the southern Plains the Gulf Coast, and a portion of the Southeast. The probability of occurrence is 35 percent.
Jan. 1-5: Heights remain mixed across the Arctic with above-normal heights across Canada. An upper low` is south of the Aleutians, with a ridge in the West and a trough in the East with a broad cyclonic flow.
Above normal temperatures are forecast for most of the West, the central and northern Plains, and the middle and upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. Anomalies could exceed 6°F. Below normal temperatures are forecast for the central, southern, and eastern Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf States, the Southeast and the lower Mid-Atlantic. Anomalies are expected to be near 2°F.
Above-normal precipitation is forecast for the West Coast a portion of the Great Basin, the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. The probability of occurrence is 35-40 percent. Below normal precipitation is forecast for a portion of the northern Rockies into the upper Mississippi Valley. The probability of occurrence is 35 percent.
Jim Munley
Youtube: Jimmunleywx
Twitter: @jimmunley
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