Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion November 22-December 6
James Munley
Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion November 22-December 6
234 PM EST Wed. Nov. 19, 2025
Nov. 22-26: Above normal heights are forecast along the West and East Coast and the South. A trough sinks into the north-central states.
A closed upper low will move into the Southwest this weekend and then track toward the south-central states early next week. A return flow will fuel another heavy rain threat across the southern Plains. The system will then move eastward with rain across the east-
central states to the East into the next midweek period. Several upper-level troughs in the northern stream will move across the northern states. This will bring precipitation across the region.
Nov. 27-Dec. 1: The GFS and its ensembles depict a broad trough across much of the nation. The ECMWF and its ensembles depict a trough in the West with a ridge in the East.
Below-normal temperatures are forecast for parts of the northern Rockies, the northern Plains, and the upper Mississippi Valley. Anomalies are expected to be near 6°F. Above-normal temperatures are forecast for the central and eastern Gulf Coast States, the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. Anomalies are expected to be near 6°F.
Below-normal precipitation is forecast for the West Coast, the Great Basin, and the Four Corners. The probability of occurrence is 35 percent. Above-normal precipitation is forecast for the middle and lower Mississippi Valley, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, to the Gulf Coast. The probability of occurrence is nearly 40 percent.
Dec. 2-6: The GFS depicts a trough across the Rockies and the Plains, while its ensembles have a broad trough across much of the country. This scenario could work out since there will be a transient trough over eastern Asia. The ECMWF is somewhat similar to the GFS ensembles with a trough across the northern states.
Below-normal precipitation is forecast for the Northeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the Southeast, and the central and eastern Gulf Coast States. The probability of occurrence is nearly 40 percent.
Jim Munley
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