Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion May 14-28
James Munley
Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion May 14-28
218 PM EDT Mon. May 11, 1026
The upper low over eastern Canada will maintain a trough to the east and continue to lift out. This will bring rain and possible storms in the East. As a trough moves into the Atlantic, a low develops off the East Coast. Some rain may impact parts of the East Coast over the weekend. An eastern Pacific closed low is expected to push into the West by mid-week and will bring moderate to heavy precipitation to portions of the northern Great Basin, Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies.
May 19-23: The GFS has a trough in the Rockies and a zonal flow and above normal heights over the eastern and central states. The ensembles depict a nearly zonal flow with above-normal heights.
A return flow into the Plains will bring rain and storms to the region. Low pressure will track across the Great Lakes on Wednesday, bringing rain and showers through Thursday from the Great Lakes, the Midwest, and the Northeast.
Above normal temperatures are forecast for the country. Anomalies could be near 8°F across parts of the Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic.
Below normal precipitation is forecast for parts of coastal California, northern California, most of the Northwest, the central and eastern Gulf Coast States, the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. The probability of occurrence is up to 45 percent in the East. Above normal precipitation is forecast for the Plains and the Mississippi Valley. The probability of occurrence is 35 percent.
May 24-28: The GFS has a trough near the West Coast and a zonal flow across the remainder of the country. The other models have the trough inland in the West.
Above normal temperatures are forecast from the Rockies to the Atlantic Coast. Anomalies could be near 6°F in some locations. A system moves into southwest Canada and could bring higher elevations snow to the northern Rockies.
Below-normal precipitation is forecast for the northern Plains, most of the Mississippi Valley, to the Atlantic Coast. The probability of occurrence is 35-40 percent.
A system moves out of the Plains on Saturday and into the East by Sunday with rain from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast.
Jim Munley
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