Nicole ... the wayward one!

[Martin Rowley [West Moors/East Dorset]]

... after having been confidentally NOT expected to develop into a Hurricane several days back - she did so - then weakened and wandered - now picked up her skirts, blown up into a CAT 2, and seems to be having a go at Bermuda! And not doubt she'll have some sort of impact on our pattern this side of the pond: don't you just love 'the weather'?

Martin.

[xmetman]

The short answer to that question Martin is yes I do.

[Len Wood]

'A lady phoned to say there was a hurricane on the way. Do n't worry. There is n't. '
Michael Fish, Oct 15th 1987.

Familiar?
Oct 15-16th 2016. There's a hurricane on the way.
ex-Nicole.
Undergoing a sex change and to be called Angus.

Len

[Richard Dixon]

I have my fingers crossed for a few friends I know in the reinsurance industry over in Bermuda.

Actually the housing stock there is fairly resilient (well the older, well-constructed homes).

Richard

[Martin Rowley [West Moors/East Dorset]]

.... CAT 4!!

Martin.

[Martin Rowley [West Moors/East Dorset]]

HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  36A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
200 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016

...POWERFUL NICOLE TO STRIKE BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------

Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Nicole is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is
expected overnight, and Nicole is forecast to be at major hurricane
strength when it moves near Bermuda. Some weakening is expected to
begin later on Thursday.

Nicole has a large area of hurricane-force winds that extend
outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).


... the eye is particularly distinct:

http://aviationweather.gov/data/obs/sat/intl/ir_ICAO-H_bw.jpg

Martin. 

[xmetman]

Only Just!

I don't have any sophisticated GIS system behind my apps so the next graphic looks like a load of spaghetti, but it does show the paths of all tropical cyclones that have passed close to Bermuda since 1851. I could add the year and the name of the storm as a label, but even doing that is not trivial to do - maybe next year.

[Paul Garvey]

Almost unbelievably, Nicole is a category *4* hurricane. 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/130531.shtml

No-one expected that, least of all the Bermudians! Crossed fingers for them

[Jack Frost]

It seems like this season the majority of hurricanes have far exceeded the strength forecast by the NHC. I think yesterday morning Nicole was forecast to be cat 1, then in the evening it had 100mph winds and the strength was forecast to increase to ~105-110 mph. Now it is cat 4 with 130mph winds. Still lots of work to do in order to understand these things!

[xmetman]

Initially it was never forecast to be anything beyond tropical storm strength.

[xmetman]

According the Met Office on Twitter, if this makes landfall on Bermuda, it will be the first hurricane to do so since the Havana hurricane of October 1926.

[xmetman]

The Bermuda weather service has an excellent weather station at the airport, here are the latest 3 hourly observations from there, I notice that the pressure has started to fall.

[xmetman]

The Bermuda weather service radar is also very good and already has Nicole to the SSW. Here's the link.

[Martin Rowley [West Moors/East Dorset]]

" Note that while hurricanes often affect Bermuda, a hurricane this
strong is rare. There have only been seven major hurricanes that
have passed within 40 n mi of Bermuda in the Atlantic hurricane
database, which goes back to 1851. "
[Latest NHC advisory]

[xmetman]

I would have thought that Nicole must be making landfall about now gauging by the latest weather radar...

[xmetman]

And yes it has!

[xmetman]

Now that's what I call an observation! 

The 1500 UTC ob is missing though which is a shame - but I bet it was done - and it was comms problems why it didn't get transmitted.

[Richard Dixon]

I've watched several streams today - I was at home and one up on the telly showing a view over the Harbour getting more and more violent before it conked out.

Seems as though despite another cat 3/4 landfall the views when the eye went over (the rear eyewall was apparently less damaging) that yet again the sturdy housing stock has stood up fairly well. My friend from my last job who is based over there writes:

"All good here.. Think our place is a little sheltered though.. Mostly just lots of tree damage / uprooting round here... "

Richard

[xmetman]

That's the difference brick's and mortar has over corrugated sheets...

[Richard Dixon]

It's also believed the "stepped" structure of the Bermudan rooves are aerodynamically good.