Nine is now Hermine

[xmetman]

[Richard Dixon]

Some chatter around the latest dropsondes suggests there is a particularly tight, well-formed centre which might inhibit any rapid deepening and nasty surprises.

I'm actually intrigued to see if it re-emerges over the Gulf Stream. The midday ECMWF model has it flirting outrageously with the East Coast for the next 8 days - will be interested to see what sort of rainfall totals this might give along the Eastern seaboard of the US.

Richard

[John Hall]

Are they really spelling it as "Hermine"? I've never seen the name spelt like that before.

[xmetman]

Yes, I'm afraid they are!

The pronouncenames.com site unfortunately doesn't have the 'usual pronounce' button for it, but the example of Hermine Greengold (known to us all as Hermione Gringold) which it gives is a hoot, it not only mispells her first name but also mispells he second name.

I can't wait to see how the various BBC presenters (both TV and weather) pronounce this one after Gaston!

[Richard Dixon]

Well I've been doggedly prounouncing it "Her-my-on-knee".

Those precipitation totals still look fairly ropey for the Eastern Seaboard:

[xmetman]

Richard

If that were millimetres I would say no problem but they're no doubt inches of rain!

Bruce.

[Richard Dixon]

Unfortunately, yes. Very odd to see how tightly-packed the ensembles are too for this event even as it tracks out to sea...

Richard

[Colin Youngs]

<Are they really spelling it as "Hermine"? I've never seen the name spelt like that before.>

 

"Hermine" is the French name for the stoat, and its fur (ermine)   http://www.diconimoz.com/animaux/hermine/ .

 

Colin Youngs

Brussels

[xmetman]

Calling your wife stoat wouldn't go down too well I don't suppose, perhaps its Spanish and translates better.

Here is the 1200 UTC chart without isobars.

I've added a bogus ship on the spot that Hermine is reported centred at 1500 UTC with pressure of 991 hPa:-

[Richard Dixon]

Have only just discovered the magnificent website "tropical tidbits".

The models page is useful even for European weather

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

The "live" recon pages are excellent too, plotting the obs over a satellite image:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#AF3071309AHERMINE

Richard

[xmetman]

Where do they get that aircraft data from!

[xmetman]

Buoy 42039 position 28.7N 86.0W

[Richard Dixon]

Those aircraft data should be the vortex data messages - they should be freely available?

[xmetman]

I notice that Hermine has now been upgraded to a category one Hurricane by the NHC.

[Stephen Davenport]

==========

For what it's worth and for interest the pronunciation is Her-MEEN.

Stephen. 

[Stephen Davenport]

Radar at 21:02 and 21:55 EDT September 1st show eye becoming well defined just before landfall. 

Aside from the usual dangers, Hermine seems to have greater than usual threats of embedded tornadoes. Red warning areas above are tornado warnings, and intial threats are to northern Florida but near-coastal regions of Georgia and S Carolina look like they are going to be particularly susceptible during Friday 2nd Sept. Unstable air is being entrained from the Atlantic, producing unusually high levels of CAPE for a tropical system (most models are suggesting possibilities of up to 3000 J/kg), coinciding with very localized strong wind shear and low-level helicity. All charts below have VT of 1500z Sep 2nd.

Stephen

Indianapolis IN

 

  

[Stephen Davenport]

This was radar velocity depiction just before landfall. 

Obviously there has been a decrease since but this is not a weakening storm per se. After interaction with upper short-wave from the NW there is consensus on stalling off the Mid-Atlantic / New England for as long as 4-5 days, kept in place by high pressure to the north (rex block); and given high SSTs off the Eastern Seaboard this will likely to continue to be a nasty storm - maybe re-strengthening to a hurricane or becoming a significant Nor'easter producing copious rain (dependent on precise location and proximity to the coast which is still a little uncertain) and persistent strong E to NE winds, so expect coastal erosion and flooding.

[Paul Garvey]

By Americans......

[Stephen Davenport]

There is close model agreement now, deterministic and ensemble, on Hermine's behaviour off the Eastern Seaboard, with GFS now also pinwheeling it towards the coast after it sits and therefore deepens over the warmth of Gulf Stream. This could be disastrous for the Mid-Atlantic - New Jersey especially, where they vacillated on improving the seawall after Sandy. Here are ECMWF and GFS 12z deterministic and ensemble outputs for T+72, VT 12z Monday 5th 2016:

Stephen

Indianapolis, IN

 

[Stephen Davenport]

Friday afternoon, September 02, 1km true-colour visible imagery via MODIS-Aqua.

[Richard Dixon]

HI Stephen

Old "Hermeen" is a right old flirt isn't she. Especially if you live on the New Jersey shoreline. I noticed one tweet that alluded to how one of the forecasts around Atlantic City had highest water numbers 10-20cm higher than with Sandy, Fingers crossed these numbers are not as widespread...

Richard

[xmetman]

Too few obs to say where its running at the moment. If it had a choice I suppose it would be up the gulf stream.

[Stephen Davenport]

Hi, Richard.

I hope that people are heeding the warnings. Moderate storm surge will last though several successive tide cycles. Here's Atlantic City: 

Here's NAM 4km. This continues to look highly dangerous for New Jersey and Delaware especially: 

Another minor note on pronunciation, although that's the least of anybody's worries: as Colin suggests it's of French origin, the equivalent of Hermione. Aside from dropping the 'H' it would be pronounced much the same as it is here: 'er-MEEN.  

Stephen.   

[Richard Dixon]

Also seems that the track is a bit of a struggle. Per Bruce's comments I'm sure the track will be influenced by any deepened that might happen by passage over the Gulf Stream - scatter of 48 hour low positions here:

WeatherBELL

@weatherbell

Huge differences in forecasted low positions for a 48 hour forecast. Still a lot of uncertainty with #Hermine. pic.twitter.com/yfzJ6M8hD2

Also the imagery is looking a bit "baroclinic" - making great viewing:

Richard

[Stephen Davenport]

========

The broad idea that it will dramatically slow off the Mid-Atlantic coast looks sound - and it can't really do much else given the block to the north. But precise location following likely re-strengthening over the Gulf Stream is certainly another matter when it comes to impact. Even larger rainfall totals threaten the coast if it edges a little farther west, on top of storm surge and erosion.

Stephen.

[Richard Dixon]

Got a gut feel that the (insured) impacts from wind in Florida / surge / heavy rainfall may end up creeping into the $USD billions rather than boring old millions...

Richard

[Paul Garvey]

I'd go for 'air - meen'. Straight from the French pronunciation. Appreciate you keeping us up to date, Stephen. 

[Paul Garvey]

Most recent NHC info. 

[Joe]

On Saturday, 3 September 2016 14:49:41 UTC+1, Richard Dixon wrote:

Got a gut feel that the (insured) impacts from wind in Florida / surge / heavy rainfall may end up creeping into the $USD billions rather than boring old millions...

Richard

Just a matter of days now before the likes of Nathan Rao grab on to any unfortunate impact from this hurricane and begin the usual scare mongering of it hitting our shores in a week's time.  He already did his bit on Gaston to advise we are going to be suffer its impact. And this after mis-reporting it was a threat to the US coastline when, in fact, it was heading the opposite direction and decaying.....

(Pity that facts get in the way of a good story, eh?)

Stephen / Richard, your updates, links and charts always appreciated. Hoping the storm doesn't give rise to too much damage & suffering.

J.

 

 

[Richard Dixon]

On Sunday, 4 September 2016 20:10:19 UTC+1, Joe wrote:

Hoping the storm doesn't give rise to too much damage & suffering.

I've not been watching as closely in the last day but it seems as thoughthe track taken has been further east of the solutions that were around Fri/Sat, some of which were fairly close to the coast.

Richard

[Paul Garvey]

We have the same scaremongers in our country, who have the ear of a rag, Joe!