Will Matthew take a right on it's Caribbean cruise?

[xmetman]

Matthew is forecast to make a right turn and threaten Cuba and the Bahamas as it continues on its cruise of the Caribbean. 

The forecast track is open to a lot of discussion at the moment, as is Matthew's further development.

[Keith (Southend)]

Just decoded the Americas region of synops and some quite high rainfall totals:

78925    Marinique/La Lementin(7m)    132.5mm
78947    St Lucia/Vigie(2m)    126.3mm
78948    St Lucia/Hewanorra Int(3m)    320.6mm

[xmetman]

You could do a with a drop of that in your part of the world Keith!

Nearly as wet as Japan the other day.

[Keith (Southend)]

Yes, a massive 0.4mm I recorded here today ;-)

Keith (Southend)

[Martin Rowley [West Moors/East Dorset]]

... I see 'Matthew' has gone to 'H' now - a little earlier than forecast I think. Interesting to read the discussion and note the wide spread of deterministic solutions within the cone of possible track. Going to be fascinating (living as I do a long way away) to see who's right.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Not so academic of course if you're in the potential path.

Martin.

[xmetman]

Matthew has now intensified to a category 2 hurricane.

[Martin Rowley [West Moors/East Dorset]]

... it occurs that some might not know how to keep tabs on all these interesting developments: if you use this link . . .

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

you'll get a clickable map with any active systems: then click on the storm of interest, and you'll get the graphic giving the forecast 'cone of interest'. Of even more interest (perhaps) is right at the top, there's a link labelled "Discussion", which is like the 'Synoptic Review' for the system. All sorts of interesting stuff in there - have a root about on the page. They had to issue an 'emergency' one last night !

Martin.

[xmetman]

Martin you're absolutely right, I should have included a link but my excuse is that I posted it from my tablet

And talking of interesting hurricane sites have a look at Tropical Tidbits that I got courtesy of Richard.

[xmetman]

Passed to the south of buoy 42059 yesterday evening

[Martin Rowley [West Moors/East Dorset]]

... Up to category 3 now - and it's 'squeaky-bum' time in Miami!

" This intensification has occurred despite analyzed southwesterly
shear of around 20 kt.  The SHIPS model output shows this shear
continuing for the next 36 hours or so, and as a result, the SHIPS
and LGEM models show Matthew weakening during this time.  This
weakening trend is also shown by the HWRF and COAMPS-TC hurricane
models.  However, I am reluctant to show a decrease in intensity
given that the environment around the cyclone does not appear to
change much. "

Martin. 

[Richard Dixon]

And whizz-bang it's Cat 4. This is link quite good. Even some UKMO ensemble output:

http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

Richard

[xmetman]

The question is why has it intensified with all that shear?

[xmetman]

It's now category 5!

Snippet from forecast discussion on the NHC site.

Matthew probably is near its peak intensity and will likely maintain

a similar strength during the next 12 hours or so. Data from the

reconnaissance plane show an incipient outer band of maximum

winds, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle could occur

soon. This should result in fluctuations in intensity, and given

that southwesterly shear is still affecting the cyclone, some

weakening is anticipated. However, Matthew is forecast to be a

category 4 hurricane by the time it moves near Jamaica and eastern

Cuba. Some additional weakening is expected over the high terrain of

Cuba.  It is noted that none (of*) the guidance ever indicated the rapid

strengthening of Matthew.

* I added the 'of', it looks like it's even got Forecaster Avila hot under the collar!

Matthew is still heading just south of west and still has to make that right I still wonder if it will do that? 

It's a bit like a duck shoot at the moment, with all of the Gulf coast and all the Caribbean islands in Matthews sights.

Looks like the NWP modellers will be rerunning the life of Matthew a few hundred times to try and fix what's missing in their current models!

[Martin Rowley [West Moors/East Dorset]]

 " This is the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic
basin since Hurricane Felix in 2007. "

... just shows how the atmosphere, with all our supposed whizz-bang technology and science can still surprise.

Martin. 

[xmetman]

[Paul Garvey]

Matthew meandering, presently, but if I were on holiday in Jamaica, I'd be wanting out. 

[Paul Garvey]

Latest update:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/020252.shtml?

Matthew heading further east? 

I lived in the Dominican Republic once and experienced the outer edge of a hurricane in 1985. It's a terrifying experience. The power is huge and palm trees were being flipped from side to side. Seas were mountainous. And we were probably 100km from the eye. 

[xmetman]

For any Hitchcock fans out there the heading that Matthew has now taken is very ominous...

000

WTNT44 KNHC 020252

TCDAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  16

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

Recent satellite images suggest that the structure of Matthew has

changed little, and the winds are still estimated at 130 kt. The

hurricane should experience some weakening during the next couple of

days, but Matthew is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane until

it interacts with the high terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba in

about 48 hours or so. Once Matthew reaches the Bahamas, the

upper-level environment and warm waters will favor some

restrengthening. In the mean time, some short-term fluctuations in

intensity are possible due to internal dynamics, including eyewall

replacement cycles, that are not included here. A better estimate

of the intensity can be obtained when the next Air Force plane

reaches Matthew at about 1130 UTC Sunday.

A very convenient SSMIS pass at 0006 UTC was helpful in locating the

eye of Matthew, and after a period of little or no motion, the

hurricane has apparently begun a north-northwest track at about 6

kt. The steering pattern has not changed, and the motion of the

hurricane for the next 2 to 3 days remains controlled by a

mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a developing mid-level

trough in the southern Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern

Caribbean Sea. This flow pattern will steer Matthew toward the

north-northwest and north toward western Haiti, eastern Cuba,

and Jamaica during the next day or so. This portion of the NHC

forecast track was shifted eastward following the trend of the

overall guidance, primarily the multi-model consensus. Beyond 72

hours, given the large spread of the guidance, the confidence in the

track is low.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast

errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.

Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts

from Matthew in Florida.

[Richard Dixon]

On Saturday, 1 October 2016 08:57:26 UTC+1, xmetman wrote:

It is noted that none (of*) the guidance ever indicated the rapid

strengthening of Matthew.

And there's the problem that won't go away! Track forecasting improves but intensity forecasting will always have these issues. The irony was that the HWRF repeatedly over-deepened the landfalling hurricane earlier in the season but didn't get the rapid deepening in this one. I can't help wondering if there's a "random" convective element in hurricanes that happens to trigger rapid cyclogenesis.

Interesting also what I've gleaned from this site - http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/ - how the spread in the UKMet ensemble tracks are much wider than the GFS tracks (see attachment). Presumably a function of the ensemble methodology - but maybe also the differences in how the hurricane is treated (e.g. its location) in the initial conditions.

Richard

[xmetman]

Well the answer to my original question of "Will Matthew take aright?" is most definitely yes and Matthew is now heading north with a forecast track that looks to be taking it between Cuba and Hispaniola, and clipping the Dominican Republic in so doing. As I raised the question last Thursday, it seems that Matthew is in no particular hurry to get wherever it's going.

[Paul Garvey]

Clipping Haiti? The areas of Haiti that are likely to be hit are so remote. Help won't get there for days. There is also Cuba and many island states in Matthew's forecast track, as well as potentially Florida and the Carolinas. If it stays as Cat 4, this could be a truly devastating hurricane. 

[Keith (Southend)]

Guantanamo Bay in Cuba must be in the firing line.

Keith (Southend)