We’ve had storm Brian now it’s Dylan’s turn!

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xmetman

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Dec 29, 2017, 7:10:29 AM12/29/17
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xmetman

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Dec 29, 2017, 12:48:08 PM12/29/17
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According to the GFS the tightest squeeze now appears to be further south across northern England rather than central Scotland.




The Met Office are taking Dylan a little further further north.




Keith (Southend)

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Dec 29, 2017, 12:57:26 PM12/29/17
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This reminds me of the 'Magic Roundabout' will it be Ermantrude next?

Keith (Southend)

Richard Dixon

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Dec 29, 2017, 7:16:11 PM12/29/17
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Interesting to see the uncertainty around this at such a short lead time.

Richard

xmetman

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Dec 30, 2017, 4:29:12 AM12/30/17
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According to the latest T+36 solution from the Met Office, it looks like apart from Ireland, it'll be the southern Scotland and the Borders that get the strongest winds from Dylan.



The GFS model if anything has Dylan a little further north in this run.


I would have thought that this merited an amber alert from the Met Office especially it being on hogmanay.

We shall seen what they intend do in an hour or so.



xmetman

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Dec 30, 2017, 8:18:12 AM12/30/17
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xmetman

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Dec 30, 2017, 8:22:19 AM12/30/17
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This an even better way of looking at Dylan...


xmetman

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Dec 30, 2017, 8:34:58 AM12/30/17
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If Dylan does develop like the GFS predicts it will easily meet the criteria for explosive cyclogenesis.
As far as I can see it deepens ~26 hPa in 15 hours between 12 UTC today and 03 UTC tomorrow morning.

Freddie

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Dec 30, 2017, 10:56:54 AM12/30/17
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Looks like the Forth-clyde Valley will cop it. Funnelling maybe giving even greater gusts than on the chart :-(

--
Freddie

xmetman

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Dec 30, 2017, 11:02:32 AM12/30/17
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Dylan may be just the start of a sequence.
What about the next low that zips into northern France on New Years Day?
I think Meteo France have already named it Carmen.

Richard Dixon

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Dec 30, 2017, 11:44:16 AM12/30/17
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Could easily be the gust parameterisation/diagnostic being a bit too fruity, but the Arpege has Dylan going to 104 mph close to the NW Ireland coast.


xmetman

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Dec 30, 2017, 12:48:21 PM12/30/17
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Not impossible.
Pressure starting to fall in the west of Ireland

Smartie

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Dec 30, 2017, 4:10:17 PM12/30/17
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12Z 30 December  GFS-WRF max gust is 110 mph.


Richard Dixon

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Dec 30, 2017, 4:23:26 PM12/30/17
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Actually - looking here and flipping through the various charts here a lot of the higher-resolution models are 160-175 km/hr, consistent (maybe slightly weaker) than your 110 mph.


Richard

Smartie

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Dec 30, 2017, 5:07:54 PM12/30/17
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Possible landfalling sting jet NW ireland and even Glasgow area tomporrow AM.


xmetman

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Dec 31, 2017, 2:28:17 AM12/31/17
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Smartie

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Dec 31, 2017, 4:58:53 AM12/31/17
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Blended WV and IR image 06 UTC 31 December and metars/ship obs

Your daily healthy dose of meteorology and acronyms-

Overall satellite presentation is of a Shapiro-Keyser type cyclone in confluent flow. Beneath the polar front cloud band a narrow cold-frontal rainband (NCFR) is moving ~SEwards exhibiting line convection and line echo wave pattern (LEWP). The cloud head ((CH) poleward  of the PFCB exhibitsfeatures  typical of S-K sting jet cyclones, including a sharp hook, filamentation and banding of the CH and warming suggesting slant-wise descent into a frontolytic region in  the dry slot. Animations show typical evaporation and 'stabbing' motion of the CH filaments. At this time there are indications that strong winds in the dry slot are due to at least one  SJ reaching the surface adding to gradient and dry intrusion winds.

Operational GFS runs look reasonable and I'll provide a more detailed analysis later.


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