Storm Goretti well forecast?

[Len]

Generally, Storm Goretti was well forecast a few days ahead, but where were the extreme winds forecast to be  and how much in advance?

Does anyone remember the time the red warning for wind for Scillies and Cornwall was put out?

Sometime on Thursday morning I believe.

People were already at work and some travelling. Luckily there was no loss of life as far as I am aware. Peak winds were in the evening.

Len

Wembury

[Graham Easterling]

The red warning was put out in good time, even for Scilly. The Storm (Hurricane?) force NNW winds set in extremely rapidly around 5pm on Scilly, 6:30 pm west Cornwall. All the schools cafes pubs etc were shut here by mid afternoon, the Mount evacuated etc.

I say hurricane above, because it is now clear to me that 100mph was exceeded all along the north cost west of Padstow. The Island St Ives recorded a mean speed >80mph, as did Stepper Point, also an NCI station, where the peak gust was 123mph. At first I doubted these gusts >120mph, bu no more, there are several, and the amount of devastation in west Cornwall is only slowly becoming evident. It's like the aftermath of a hurricane. Trees in exposed spots have had all the branches stripped off, just leavig the trunk, 80% of the trees on St Michael's Mout are down. On the Marazion by-pass all the trees appear to have been chain sawed half way up. St Ives is littered with slates and debris. Many roads are still blocked, and still around 30,000 houses in the far SW of Cornwall without power. Certainly the worst storm since 1988. don't remember anything like it. 1st flights to Scilly today with emergency generators,, and the like.

On a personal level a friend, a carer was out yesterday, at 6pm in the centre of low 'lull' and got caught surrounded (literally) by downed trees on the road back to Pendeen. Rescued by some storm chasers with a chain saw.

I'll have to stop posting here, and do a proper write up, it was the gale of a lifetime, many lives I'm sure saved by the excellent forecast and warning. The forecast of gusts to 100mph in west Cornwall was spot on. I was pleased to see the BBC news stating the gusts from place like St Ives NCI, even if followed by statements that they are not official. 

Couple of photos from St Michaels Mount, even the few trees standing have mostly had their branches stripped off.

Graham

Penzance

[Ashley haworth-roberts]

I believe the red warning was issued around 2 pm (there's probably an entry on X - where will the Met Office go if Musk's outfit gets banned).

I've emailed the Met Office about how their minima keep changing - first night they said minus 14.7 C but changed that to minus 11.7 C at a different location ie Braemar, second night they said minus 13.3 C at Braemar but then changed that to minus 12.3 C there (what about last night - what might their latest observations of extremes page say after 11 pm tonight).

[Ashley haworth-roberts]

Might have been even worse if the trees were in full leaf as in 1987. One fatality is now being reported from Cornwall. 

On Saturday, 10 January 2026 at 09:51:17 UTC Graham Easterling wrote:

[Metman2012]

They're on Bluesky and it arrived on that channel at 2:14pm

[Graham Easterling]

We also had alerts on mobile 'phones, well most 'phones, it's still far from 100%. I think it was nearer noon on the MetO website, though I could well be wrong. Certainly the decision to shut all the schools, pubs, cafes in Penzance, stop the trains etc., was taken early afternoon. 

Still around 25,000 homes without electricity in west Cornwall, and many in Marazion and Helston have no water either. As a result any pubs and cafes with power nearby (I made the mistake of going to the Welloe at Praa Sands!) are packed. Lots of young familes with toddlers sitting there for warmth. Some nursing homes still had no power this morning, not sure about now.. Bottled water being handed out at the Folly Field Marazion. Roads being closed again this evening so they can work on dangerous trees. 

On the plus side, lovely weather today. Luckily it was warm enough for the tougher people to overflow into the outside seating.

It's very sad to see photos of the destruction of 80% of the trees on the Mount. It'll never look remotely the same in my lifetime.

Graham

Penzance

[Graham Easterling]

Most of the trees on the Mount are evergreen, as are many in west Cornwall. I have palm trees and a Holm Oak (evergreen) in my garden.

In St Ives, one of the worst hit spots, almost all the trees down are evergreen. Here's 3 of them.

Graham

[Freddie]

The warning was upgraded to red at about 13:45.  Note that the text in the warning remained the same as was in the previous amber warning issued earlier, well in advance of the storm.  The reason for the upgrade to red was the increased confidence of the events as described occurring, as ongoing human analysis showed that the storm was on the model forecast path and at the model forecast depth - there had been some variation of these aspects in model runs (and between models) right up to the day of the storm.  This reclassification was explained well in the "Weather studio live" video posted to social media the next day - watch for yourself: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlW23yacyGk.  I would encourage subscribing to the Met Office youtube channel - you get some very useful explanations of meteorological things in the "deep dive" videos, plus there are the handy 10-day outlooks to watch too, along with daily forecast broadcasts.

Remember that warnings are not threshold-driven - they are based on impacts and the likelihood of those impacts occurring.  A matrix is used to classify warnings - you can find the matrix on all issued warnings, with the assessed impact/confidence for that particular warning marked on the matrix.  In the case of the warning under discussion, the impact classification didn't change - it was the likelihood category that increased to "Very likely" - this is what drove the reclassification from amber to red.

[Len]

I was disappointed with David Braine on BBC Spotlight on Fri. 9th comparing historic records of past wind storms for the Southwest

He focussed on the Great Storm of Oct 1987 and did not mention the Burns Day storm of 25 Jan 1990.

The wind strength for us in the Southwest was nothing in 1987 compared with 1990.

The pressure dropped to a remarkable 957 mb though in Plymouth for the Great Storm of 1987,

this storm caused the most damage as it moved east from Dorset towards the Southeast.

Here is a comparison for Plymouth Mount Batten:

Burns Day Storm 25 Jan. 1990 max gust 81 mph

Storm Goretti        8th Jan 2026  max gust 73 mph

Great Storm           16 Oct 1987    max gust  52 mph

Len 

Wembury, SW Devon

On Saturday, 10 January 2026 at 09:51:17 UTC Graham Easterling wrote:

[Graham Easterling]

The Burns Day storm simply didn't really affect Cornwall in the slightest. Cornwall Live (an advertising site based someewhere in England) surpassed themselves by comparing it with " The Great Storm of 1987 and how it brought Cornwall to a standstill "

I was pleased to see in the link from Freddie, that the MetO reported the strongest reliable gusts from Cornwall (123mph & 111mph) as well as the offical ones. 1998 was bad here. That's when I recorded my strongest ever gust (80mph - 4/1/98).  My wind records start 1992. The damage down here is much worse this time though. From the Mount:-

"Last night, Storm Goretti swept across Cornwall with devastating force. Here on St Michael’s Mount, we woke up to the heartbreaking loss of more than 80 trees, that’s approximately 80% of the island trees, along with many much-loved camellias, hydrangeas and rhododendrons.

These trees and shrubs were not just part of the landscape they were living witnesses to decades of island life, shaping the character of the gardens, sheltering wildlife, and bringing joy to generations of visitors, staff, and island residents. Their loss will be deeply felt by everyone who knows and loves the Mount.

Our thanks go to the island team and local partners who are already working carefully to make the site safe and to assess the damage. In time, we will look to the future and to how the Mount’s gardens can recover and regenerate, but today is about acknowledging a sense of sadness at the loss of so many wonderful plants and trees here and across the county."

Graham

Penzance 

[Ashley haworth-roberts]

The Times, referring to the 123 mph unofficial gust at Padstow, reported as follows:  The National Coastwatch Institution (NCI) at Stepper Point near Padstow recorded the fierce gusts of Hurricane Force 12 on the Beaufort Scale, equivalent to a category 4 hurricane, at 7.30pm yesterday.  However I seriously doubt that the gust of 123 mph was equivalent to gusts of a Category 4 hurricane.

On 1987 the book Breath of the Gods says 'scores' were killed in the 1987storm. If the author was referring to the UK he was incorrect - scores were killed in the Burn's Day storm though, which hit during the daytime.

[Len]

The Burns Day storm of 1990 was certainly the worst for the Plymouth area.

We were without power for 4 days due to a tree falling on a power line 

50 yds down the road.

Len

Wembury

[Graham Easterling]

Apologies Len, I meant to say the 1987 storm.

Senior moment - The Burns day storm certainly was bad!!

Graham

Penzance

[Graham Easterling]

Burns Day Gusts

Graham

Penzance

[Freddie]

There was a good explainer around the Goretti warnings on today's Met Office deep dive - more eloquently put than my explanation here.  Other interesting stuff covered too - including the reasoning behind the coming weekend's weather, plus a sneak peek at potentially cold weather for later next week.  See for yourself: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxzefkzBVyk