What happens next?

[xmetman]

What happens next?

Even the ECMWF is now following the GFS lead of taking a vigorous low northward from Biscay. 

Of course the models beyond T+72 have been so volatile in recent weeks this may not happen exactly this way.

Whatever process is behind the steering of this low might take it east a long the English Channel rather than north – we live in hope.

[Brian Wakem]

A wet, grey miserable mess.

[xmetman]

Yes it does look like that way Brian.

Perhaps's the mighty NWP models will get it wrong for one...

[John Hall]

I take it the purple area on the top chart is where snow is forecast to be falling?

There's still a lot of uncertainty. Today's 12Z UKMO run has come up with a different track for the low, and seems to take it along the channel. I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't until 24-48 hours in advance that the models settle down.

[xmetman]