The return of the westerlies puts summer on hold

[xmetman]

The latest forecast charts for the next 16 days indicate a continuation of the mobile westerly scenario that storm Hector recently ushered in.

As we are constantly reminded, the jet stream aloft controls our weather down on the surface, and some of the GFS surface charts have a distinct autumnal rather than a summer feel about them at the moment.

There are anticyclonic interludes, but these are brief affairs that last just a day or so before the next low pressure system whizzes through.

Results from NWP models are of course fickle beyond 5 days, so they may have got it totally wrong.

Courtesy of wxcharts.eu

Here's the latest medium term outlook from the Met Office.

[Brian Wakem]

FS 06Z looks pretty summer-like to me next week in the SE.

[Keith (Southend)]

I was thinking that summer seemed to be sitting on the fence and some subtle changes could certainly plunge the south into some quite warm days. It's not the European monsoon we usually get. The question is, will it slowly slide downhill, or will it develop into a warmer than average summer. The SST's across the Atlantic are striking, but not sure what impact it will have?

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anomnight.6.14.2018.gif

Keith (Southend)

[Julian Mayes]

Until I see evidence to the contrary, this looks to me like promising a continuation of dry, bright weather in the South East, as well as quite warm. It may be rather breezy at times, but it'll be a warm, relaxing breeze at times. The grass is already turning yellow around here and the odd millimetre of rain (if we get that) will do nothing to change it, nor to reduce water demand, not that we are short of water now. I heard grumbling about weather forecasts today when at the garden centre (complaining about the fine weather with no showers locally). A 20 second 'forecast' on a radio station may generalise about rain or showers and the public in Surrey, London or indeed Southend will think it applies to them. I shall assume that TV forecasters have time to refer to a north-west / south-east split (making no further mention of TV forecasts!).  

On two days this week The Times showed pretty sunset photos - but the sub-editors wrote about 'tomorrow promising more showers' type of caption below them - misleading for many readers while northern areas had more than 'showers'. 

Julian       Molesey, Surrey, hoping for a bit of rain late tomorrow.  

[xmetman]

I've no doubt temperature will be an issue, even in a westerly mean temperatures will be average or above. There will be sunny days after passage of a frontal system and the following ridge will last for a couple of days, but in-between time there could be days similar to Saturday and Sunday of this week that are much cloudier. Yes a sunny day here and there but take a look at it monthly and it's no 1976.

[xmetman]

Sunshine totals are as important as high temperatures are in judging a 'good' summer, they usually go hand in hand but I suspect not always.

I don't understand why seasonal climate models can't forecast sunshine totals - well I suppose they might but we don't see them just rainfall and temperature. 

I asked this question in a recent comment to the Met Office blog:

[xmetman]

The other thing I was trying to do was to look at the UK as a whole, rather than being parochial and just the southeast of England!

And in that regard it's good to see that the Isle of Man the sunniest place in the last two months.

[John Hall]

Unfortunately it seems unlikely that the Isle of Man will continue to enjoy such good weather in the near future. I say that, as I'm going there on holiday on Wednesday.

[xmetman]

I shouldn't give up hope just yet - according to the latest GFS pressure will build and we could end up with a spell of anticyclonic NW weather from later this week.

[John Hall]

Yes, just after posting that I checked the 12Z GFS, ECMWF and UKMO model runs, and discovered they were all showing a substantial anticyclone taking up residence over Ireland. So I'm now feeling much more optimistic. (But I haven't checked today's 0Z runs yet.)

[xmetman]

Latest from the Met Office

How about that for abit of tautology:

"Temperatures will be around normal for the time of year, that is, warm and pleasant"

[xmetman]

The Met office are still plugging a hot week at the end of June but are more cautious about what July holds...