Postcode climate projections

[Len W]

UKMO now think their models are good enough to give climate projections in your area.

They provide a interactive tool for you to find out.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-d6338d9f-8789-4bc2-b6d7-3691c0e7d138#user-input-container

There are consequences there for rainfall if you have a 2 degC or 4 degC rise in temperature.

They have for the last 4 decades said we can expect warmer wetter winters and hotter drier summers. This is still the case apparently, their huge computing power gives them greater confidence. I suspect though the rainfall projections still have a huge uncertainty attached.

I have for a long time taken issue on the prediction of drier summers. It has not shown up over the last 25 years for Plymouth (smoothed data shown by yellow line on the plot below). Out of interest I have also plotted Heathrow's summer rainfall figures. There too is a increase in total summer rainfall over the last 25 years, although not as marked as in Plymouth. Smoothed data is shown by red line for Heathrow.

So the UKMO summarise with 'Total rainfall in summer is expected to decline'.

My question to them is when is this expected to start?

There is very little trend one way or the other if you look over the record 1948-2020.

Len

Wembury

[Graham Easterling]

When they can reliably get postcode forecasts OK for 2 days off, or even better getting the text to agree with the symbols, then they can try it for global warming.

Anyway, I typed in my postcode & apparently the highest temperature near my location in the last 30 years was 27.4C. Well, maybe true on a north coast clifftop, but Culdrose on top of the exposed Lizard plateau has been higher than that. I've reached 29.7C, and Lands End has reached a similar figure. So my hottest summer day could be 29.6C apparently, which is reached by simply adding the predicted global temperature increase to their original incorrect figure. Hardly a postcode forecast.

It's this sort of rubbish that gives climate change sceptics ammunition.

Changes in SST would have a big impact here, and nobody can make up their mind on that. It's the unpredictability which is one of the main concerns.

Graham

Penzance