Another thunderstorm warning

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xmetman

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Jul 24, 2019, 8:31:46 AM7/24/19
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This one's valid for 1500 tomorrow to 0400 on Friday. 


It's quite obvious that the German ICON model and the UKMO don't see eye-to-eye on this one.


They've not left the SE out of this one but I notice they have Glasgow.

2019-07-24_132717.jpg


xmetman

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Jul 24, 2019, 11:18:27 AM7/24/19
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They have no warnings of thunderstorms out for today, but I notice there has been one across Caithness that they've chosen to ignore. 
It's probably one of the non-lethal kind that goes from cloud to cloud...

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Jack Frost

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Jul 24, 2019, 12:36:38 PM7/24/19
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xmetman

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Jul 25, 2019, 4:34:28 AM7/25/19
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Thanks for the compliment I've always liked Grampa Simpson's take on the world!

One of my favourite quotes of his is this one:-

"You know, you remind me of a poem I can't remember, and a song that may never have existed, and a place I'm not sure I've ever been to."

You might not think that you could turn into an old curmudgeon like me but give it a few years and you might find yourself complaining like I do. In that regard here's another complaint of the hallowed agency that is the Met Office...

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Here's a snippet from what Wikipedia had to say about the heatwave in France of 2009:


"In France, 14,802 heat-related deaths (mostly among the elderly) occurred during the heatwave, according to the French National Institute of Health. France does not commonly have very hot summers, particularly in the northern areas, but eight consecutive days with temperatures of more than 40 °C (104 °F) were recorded in Auxerre, Yonne in early August 2003. Because of the usually relatively mild summers, most people did not know how to react to very high temperatures (for instance, with respect to rehydration), and most single-family homes and residential facilities built in the last 50 years were not equipped with air conditioning. Furthermore, while contingency plans were made for a variety of natural and man-made catastrophes, high temperatures had rarely been considered a major hazard.

The catastrophe occurred in August, a month in which many people, including government ministers and physicians, are on holiday. Many bodies were not claimed for many weeks because relatives were on holiday. A refrigerated warehouse outside Paris was used by undertakers as they did not have enough space in their own facilities. On 3 September 2003, 57 bodies were still left unclaimed in the Paris area, and were buried.

The high number of deaths can be explained by the conjunction of seemingly unrelated events. Most nights in France are cool, even in summer. As a consequence, houses (usually of stone, concrete, or brick construction) do not warm too much during the daytime and radiate minimal heat at night, and air conditioning is usually unnecessary. During the heatwave, temperatures remained at record highs even at night, breaking the usual cooling cycle. Elderly persons living by themselves had never faced such extreme heat before and did not know how to react or were too mentally or physically impaired by the heat to make the necessary adaptations themselves. Elderly persons with family support or those residing in nursing homes were more likely to have others who could make the adjustments for them. This led to statistically improbable survival rates with the weakest group having fewer deaths than more physically fit persons; most of the heat victims came from the group of elderly persons not requiring constant medical care, and/or those living alone, without frequent contact with immediate family."

Instead of a hourly highest temperature they may as well as show an hourly body count of elderly people that have likely died from the effects of the heatwave across Europe.

I can understand how weather nerds like us can get caught up with extremes of any kind, but it's rather worrying when the national weather service tries to incite their subscribers into a frenzy as they are, about how and when we are going to exceed the highest temperature. I think the media team at the Met Office will do anything to increase the number of the subscribers they get to their Twitter, Facebook and Instagram accounts including selling their old Granny, and need to be reigned in (pardon the pun).

For God's sake it's just a temperature, and by this weekend it may will be raining, and all this talk of heatwave and records will all be just a fleeting memory (and I should know).

Of course this doesn't mean I won't be bringing you all the lowdown on it at xmetman!


Julian Mayes

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Jul 25, 2019, 8:01:02 AM7/25/19
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Re the MO twitter map --- I had not realised that Kenley Airfield was so large    :)  

(I have a thing about geographically imprecise temperature symbols). 

Julian  


Tudor Hughes

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Jul 25, 2019, 10:16:50 AM7/25/19
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'Kinuge, Kenley.  I have gliders landing in my back garden all the time.

Seriously, this is the first time I have ever seen rain fall at a temperature of 32°C.  The amount was minuscule and seemed to fall from Ac/high Sc of very little vertical development  Cloud amount now (1410Z) about 6 okta but quite unthreatening, temp 33°C.  The maximum was at 1230Z and was 34.8 °C.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, NE Surrey, 557 ft, 170 m.

Freddie

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Jul 25, 2019, 10:28:11 AM7/25/19
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On Thursday, 25 July 2019 15:16:50 UTC+1, Tudor Hughes wrote:
'Kinuge, Kenley.  I have gliders landing in my back garden all the time.The maximum was at 1230Z and was 34.8 °C.

Was this a record for you, Tudor?

--
Freddie
Dorrington
Shropshire
115m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
Stats for the month so far: https://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/statistics/201907JUL.xlsx

xmetman

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Jul 25, 2019, 11:03:28 AM7/25/19
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2019-07-25_155152.jpg


Even with the new amended warning they are still skating on thin ice with the extent of the area with regard to the thunderstorm that tracked north out of east Wales and is now over the Wirral.


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2019-07-25_154857.jpg

The cell now crossing the Channel looks pretty active too and looks like it'll effect the east of London before too long.

Tudor Hughes

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Jul 25, 2019, 12:13:42 PM7/25/19
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On Thursday, 25 July 2019 15:28:11 UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
On Thursday, 25 July 2019 15:16:50 UTC+1, Tudor Hughes wrote:
'Kinuge, Kenley.  I have gliders landing in my back garden all the time.The maximum was at 1230Z and was 34.8 °C.

Was this a record for you, Tudor?

--
Freddie

      No, not a record but the highest since 19 July 2006 (35.0).  Site record is 35.9 on 10 Aug 03.  But for the development of the light medium-level cloud at about 1230 I don't think it's an exaggerated claim to say the max would have been nearly 37° to judge from the way the temperature was rising at around 12Z.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey. 

Julian Mayes

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Jul 25, 2019, 1:16:32 PM7/25/19
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Thunderstorms developing very quickly on south and west margins of London now, some just th and l without pptn I think.   A dramatic end to a remarkable day coming up maybe.   For the sake of commuters, I hope the trains keep running. 

32.2C outside.   

Julian       

Tudor Hughes

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Jul 25, 2019, 1:26:50 PM7/25/19
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Thunder heard, no lightning seen, at 1657Z.  A very slight splash of rain.

I did a whirling-psychrometer measurement of humidity around 1500Z.  The wet-bulb was 24.9°C, the highest I have ever known.  Dry bulb 31.8°C, giving a DP of 22°C.  No wonder I perspire freely.

Tudor Hughes.
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