How serious could this drought be?

[Dave C]

WIth not much rain forecast and summer not yet started I wonder just how bad this could get after such a dry winter and Spring. The 1.9mm that fell here yesterday was light and failed to penetrate the canopy of the shrubbery and reach the ground with most of it evaporating before it could do any good. Just 10mm here since April 1st and I think most of the UK is well below average.

[Len W]

Does not look that serious down here in SW.

In fact it looks annoyingly wet according to the long range forecast from yr.no.
Do they use the gfs model?

[Martin Rowley [West Moors/East Dorset]]

..... Hurn running totals for three periods below (24 month/purple, 12 month/light blue, 10 month/green), with five points annotated on the 24 month series at the 'end year' of a notable lack of rain [ 1963, 1976, 1992, 2006, 2012 ].

As you can see, the current 24-month rolling totals are some way from touching these previous low points, but on the shorter time-scales (10/12 months), then we're beginning to head into the lower reaches of the series (starts 1957), so a continuation would be significant.

The new Met Office GPC outlooks have just been issued [ http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks ]. Poking around in the data, they indicate a bias to below-average PPN (and above-average Ta,=> greater potential evaporation/transpiration).  If they turn out to be correct, then there may be problems by the summer's end; a complicated business though as others will no doubt point out - this is only dealing with water-in: water-out I'll leave to the Environment Agency :-)

Our minor tributory rivers/streams round here, notorious for reflecting low rainfall, are at the moment running fairly well (Stour, Avon basin).

Martin.

[Dave C]

The Wye Valley and Forest of Dean area were like a dust bowl earlier in the week. My car was covered in dust and there were clouds of it blowing around and coming off car tyres anywhere on the tracks to car parks. It does look like they might have done better than most in the last day or two though.

[Dave C]

Thanks Martin. Nice chart to see the current situation. Probably drier still here as it usually is. If it carries on through the summer it has a chance of being in top 5 driest 24 months in 50 years I guess.

[Colin Youngs]

"Households in South East England told to use water wisely"

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39897774

 

Colin Youngs

Brussels

[Len W]

Over England and Wales:

'Drought' for 15 dry months Apr. 1975 to Aug. 1976.

Driest (since 1850) 28-month sequence ending in summer 1992,

followed by

Wettest (in 20th century) 32-month sequence ending in Feb. 1995. Then we had a very dry summer 1995 but water situation not

as critical as 1976 because of the wet winter.

Len

Wembury