Hurricane Matthew en route to Florida?

[xmetman]

Because the Met Office guard their own NWP model output so well, it's impossible to compare their forecast track with other models, or the official forecast track what the NHC publishes. The only way I know of doing it is when the BBC weather forecast take a special look, and it looks to me (that in the latest graphics at 12.55 PM bulletin) the Met Office model takes Hurricane Matthew across the SE coast of Florida on Friday and slightly west of the NHC track. Obviously before then it will no doubt cause havoc in Haiti, Cuba and the Bahamas en route.

[Martin Rowley [West Moors/East Dorset]]

... try this:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/storm-tracker/#?tab=map&stormId=14L&stormName=MATTHEW

All sorts of goodies buried deep in the vaults :-)

Martin.

[xmetman]

Thanks Martin I'd totally forgotten about that!

The forecast track that it displays is probably the worst case scenario for Florida, as Matthew is forecast to track almost the entire length of the state's eastern seaboard.

[Richard Dixon]

On Tuesday, 4 October 2016 13:13:22 UTC+1, xmetman wrote:

Because the Met Office guard their own NWP model output so well, it's impossible to compare their forecast track with other models, or the official forecast track what the NHC publishes. The only way I know of doing it is when the BBC weather forecast take a special look, and it looks to me (that in the latest graphics at 12.55 PM bulletin) the Met Office model takes Hurricane Matthew across the SE coast of Florida on Friday and slightly west of the NHC track. Obviously before then it will no doubt cause havoc in Haiti, Cuba and the Bahamas en route.

It's terrifically interesting - I certainly picked my time to have a month or so off work in between jobs, just when the fun starts!

The midday runs are fascinating - both the EC and UKMet want to recurve out to sea - nothing new there, but now back south again into the sea off the coast of FL/GA - per the chart below taken from Martin's link.

I spend a few years reconstructing the windfield of hurricanes as they moved inland in the early 2000s. This was a fairly easy task when - as they did at most of the time - the storms made landfall perpendicular to the coastline. I now know the person who has that job in the same company and I've wished them luck if they have to try and reconstruct a windfield of a storm that is moving up along the coastline, changing all the while.

There is a particularly nasty scenario here if it stays very close to the coast and produces Cat 2or Cat 3 winds all along the Florida coastline (and then in GA and SC). Will be interest to see how close it gets to the coastline - one has to hope if it does "scour" up the coast then the closer it gets to the coast, the more the friction of land will act to weaken the storm....

Richard

[Martin Rowley [West Moors/East Dorset]]

... (00Z/05th) EC, UKMET & GFS deterministic all loop-the-loop with this one. GFS maintains a powerful storm.

Martin.

[Paul Garvey]

Fascinating predictions from NHC:

[xmetman]

It would be utterly fantastic if that were just one storm!

But there is talk that Matthew will do a loop de loop before it finally gives up the ghost.

[xmetman]

The weather station at Nassau (WMO 78073) surprisingly did a 1200 UTC observation after being closed since the 2100 UTC observation yesterday. 

The pressure at 1200 is corrupt and probably should read 983.0. 

The wind at 1200 is 040° with a 10 minute mean speed of 39 knots with no gust that I can make out.

 78073 - Nassau

 Bahamas 4 M AMSL [25.039 N 77.466 W]

AAXX 06124 78073 11456 80439 10246 20246 400983 60087 76562 8692/ 333 0619/ 10297 20239 59107 85810 82915 88458 90962=

AAXX 05214 78073 41463 80508 10262 20253 40075 76192 82973 333 06399 82915 84460 85072=

AAXX 05184 78073 11463 80311 10280 20257 40083 69971 70262 84916 333 84976 333 06999 59015 83915 85460 88270 90937=

AAXX 05154 78073 41463 80608 10271 20253 40106 78086 8497/ 333 06999 83915 83835 88460=

Very helpfully Google Earth plots the latest position of Hurricane Matthew! 

In my opinion if Nassau has a wind of 040/39 at 1200 UTC the position of Matthew may be quite a bit further east.

But of course that's just based on just a single SYNOP observation, and I'm sure that the NHC know exactly where the eye is - that's of course if it's not obscured!

Florida is less than 300 km away to the W'NW.

[xmetman]

Well despite what Nassau reported at 1200 UTC the NHC have just issued an updated position for Matthew at 1600 UTC which makes the eye at that time just to the west of the city (so 47843 to me).

I notice the 1500 UTC observation never made it.

[Richard Dixon]

The eye is so narrow that thankfully Nassau was spared.

Now we have to hope that there's a late turn to the north to spare the strongest winds on land in Florida.

The Weather Channel doing a good public service at the moment, live here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Riz1vKLhqI&feature=youtu.be

Richard

[xmetman]

Here are some of the 0600 UTC Florida plotted SYNOP observations.

Matthew is fast approaching weather buoy 41009. The majority of the other buoys of the coast of Florida are not reporting full observations, I would say for obvious reasons, but 42058 took a direct hit from Matthew on the 3rd and never blinked. Looking back they all looked faulty before Matthew made an appearance.

[xmetman]

Well the answer to my original question was a yes Matthew was en route to Florida even though it never made landfall. 

The anemometer on weather buoy 41008 gave up the ghost at 0400 UTC which was a shame but it must have been close to the eye with a MSLP of 957.6 hPa at the same time. 

One by one Matthew has mangled all of the weather buoys off the coast of eastern Florida in the last 24 hours.

I noticed that Savannah reported at 0600 UTC a rainfall total [00-06] of 139 mm. 

Charleston wasn't too far behind with 115 mm.

In the plotted SYNOP chart below ignore the contouring which doesn't cope with hurricanes very well.

[xmetman]

I make the rainfall in the last 21 hours in Charleston 266 mm

 72208 - Charleston

 United States 14 M AMSL [32.9 N 80.0 W]

AAXX 08154 72208 11456 83333 10217 20000 39856 49869 53051 60277 763// 91456 333 91055 555 90815=

AAXX 08124 72208 11320 80526 10239 20233 39825 49841 58043 60991 765// 91156 333 10272 20239 72385 91039 96010 555 90812=

AAXX 08094 72208 11456 81022 10250 20239 39893 49907 56051 60357 765// 90856 333 91036 96010 555 90809=

AAXX 08064 72208 11458 80819 10250 20239 39943 49958 56061 61151 763// 90556 333 10250 20211 91038 96010 555 90806=

AAXX 08034 72208 11456 80821 10250 20239 30004 40019 58017 60637 765// 90256 333 91036 96010 555 90803=

AAXX 08004 72208 11364 80521 10244 20233 30031 40045 58025 60251 763// 92356 333 10272 20211 91032 555 90800=

AAXX 07214 72208 11466 80516 10261 20239 30055 40070 58031 60067 761// 92056 333 91023 555 90721=

AAXX 07184 72208 11466 80712 10267 20239 30086 40101 58012 69931 761// 91756 333 10272 20211 91019 555 90718=

AAXX 07154 72208 12366 80413 10256 20228 30102 40116 58011 69907 91456 333 91018 555 90715=

AAXX 07124 72208 12266 80311 10222 20206 30113 40127 53001 69901 91156 333 10233 20211 70003 555 90712=

[Stephen Davenport]

Hurricane Matthew finally came ashore at 10:45 EDT / 14:45 UTC on Saturday 8th October at Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge in South Carolina as a Category 1 storm. It will continue to move north-eastwards (over North Carolina) tonight.

There are some large totals as you would expect, with rainfall exacerbated along the coast by storm surge. Not only that but it looks like convergence enhanced the convection near the coast, especially between about Wilmington and Myrtle Beach (strong SE'lies from offshore into the coast and less strong NE'lies across the hinterland - arrow colours below are arbitrary). Radar storm estimates below show about six inches of rain, and likely four inches of rain in just one hour - maybe as much 6-7 inches from ground reports.

Stephen

Indianapolis IN

[Richard Dixon]

I follow a lot of US weather commenters on Twitter and it was notable how once landfall wasn't made in Florida, the volume of commenting dropped away even though seemingly the greater impact has occurred in GA/SC. Got the impression it was a bit like UK media reporting with its London bias. Maybe it was just my perception of it.

Here's a few rainfall numbers - up to 17 inches in places:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

Richard

[Richard Dixon]

On Saturday, 8 October 2016 23:09:06 UTC+1, Stephen Davenport wrote:

Hurricane Matthew finally came ashore at 10:45 EDT / 14:45 UTC on Saturday 8th October at Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge in South Carolina as a Category 1 storm. It will continue to move north-eastwards (over North Carolina) tonight.

There are some large totals as you would expect, with rainfall exacerbated along the coast by storm surge. Not only that but it looks like convergence enhanced the convection near the coast, especially between about Wilmington and Myrtle Beach (strong SE'lies from offshore into the coast and less strong NE'lies across the hinterland - arrow colours below are arbitrary).

Stephen - comment here backs you up along with an animation which brought to mind the animations I saw in 2002 post-Tropical Storm Allison in the Houston area:

Philippe Papin

@pppapin

Incredible #Matthew #rainfall across #NC via intense sfc #frontogenesis & moisture flux convergence. Here's a long 200 frame loop.

Richard

 

[xmetman]

Here are the rainfall totals as best I can make them out for the east coast of the United States for the last week. Obviously there are a fair few missing observations from the hurricane affected stations right on the coast. It looks like there was 6 to 12 inches of rain generally, but SYNOP coverage is fairly sparse as you can see, and of course it's still raining heavily in Virginia. ToDo: fix the legend.