31st July, the last day of summer

[Len Wood]

Today might well be the last day of summer.
I base this feeling on the SST anomalies in the the N. Atlantic
and the planetary scale waves which have locked into a 5-wave hemispheric flow pattern,
chart for 21st July given below as an example.
The 5-wave pattern is a mobile pattern and not conducive to blocking.
It is not surprising that the NWP models  are not in agreement at 10 days out.

I hope I am wrong about the end of summer. 😕

Len
Wembury, SW Devon

[George in Edinburgh]

Still waiting for summer to start up here Len.

George in Swanston, Edinburgh
www.swanstonweather.co.uk

[Len Wood]

Gosh George.
We had our summer here 16th to 19th July.
A mini heatwave.

Did you not experience it in Edinburgh?

You have certainly had to make some sacrifices moving to be near family.

Len
Wembury, SW Devon

[xmetman]

I did spot similarities to the summer of 2009 in mid-June, but that idea was scuppered by a very dry July, so who knows, all the rain may come in August!

[Nick Gardner]

Len, some positive thinking is needed here.

We'll get some much needed rain this week to green up the parched garden and countryside a little, then the Azores High will move in for next weekend and settle right over the South West bringing a long, settled and hot spell that will last through to the end of summer proper at the end of September.

--
Nick Gardner
Otter Valley, Devon
20 m amsl
http://www.ottervalleyweather.me.uk

[Dave C]

Are they farrming flying pigs in Devon now Nick? :-) We've had a warm, dry mainly sunny couple of weeks here now with temperatures always low 20's to low 30's so not bad at all. I need the rain tomorrow but I think you may be right about some more decent weather, at least for the first couple of weeks of August before the usual early October heatwave!

Dave

[George in Edinburgh]

Len, I typed a most elegant and informative  reply and lost the whole lot when I pressed the back tab of the browser. So here goes again.

I probably need to recalibrate my self-perceived weather sensitivity. After almost 60 years in the south I felt that summer warmth started at 21C and heat at 27C.Up here the highest temperature I have recorded since 1/1/14 was 28.1C in July 2014. Last year the warmest day was 26.7C and this year 26.3C. Warm settled spells don't last for long before the westerly winds sweep back in. If I had to identify 'summer' weather this year I suppose the first week of June which was dry but not overly warm and the 18th-22nd July which were all >21C with the 19th having 15.27h of sunshine and a maximum temperature  of 26.3C.

George in Swanston,Edinburgh
www.swanstonweather.co.uk

[Paul Garvey]

Yes, there are rumours circulating that it might actually rain in Dawlish tomorrow. I cut my lawns in anticipation........

[Paul Garvey]

And again, in anticipation of rain in the SW, a most wonderful sunrise this morning, The sky aflame with crimson. 

[Tezza]

Here in Surrey its golf early p.m.but also put some weed & feed on the lawn so I've got both bases covered to not be disappointed either way.  

BTW  - where's that low heading on the T+120 fax for Friday?  Likely to spoil the weekend?

Cheers

T

[Paul Garvey]

Hopefully not for us. Other models showing less and less likelihood that it will affect us, I'm glad to say!

[Scott Whitehead]

I seem to remember the real heat stopped around Durham

[Nick Gardner]

Hopefully it's not the end of summer.

August and September often bring us the best weather of the entire summer.

The latest forecasts certainly look good for us 'ere in the deep south with a resumption of the fine, warm weather that dominated July.